Boys: AEGON Junior International Week 2, Nottingham - Grade 4 (Week 15)

The Knight · Challenger qualifying

RE: Boys: AEGON Junior International Week 2, Nottingham - Grade 4 (Week 15)

indiana · Tennis legend

The trouble is that 5 is such a small number to be looking for real future success from. That is really GB's perennial problem that there has been such a low base of quality junior players, that given such a high proportion ( from most countries ) will not "make it" for various reasons, then we end up with so few quality seniors. The lower number to start with, and hence higher focus / pressure on each, probably just extenuates that problem.

I woudn't have a real grasp on the overall average of players of such a quality and age range as these 5 who generally "make it". If making it is say as high as ultimately senior top 100 then I am pretty sure that would be less than half, and then 0 out of a sample of 5 would maybe be unlikely but far from an unrealistic possible scenario.

It is a bit depressing, but accurate, that Neil Harman points to quite a few that for various reasons haven't made it in the past.

What one would really hope though, to swing the statistics back more positively, is that really significant improvements have been made and continue to be made, in the support being given to our young players by the current GB system, thus giving them a better chance than so many of their forebears.

But, also, more than anything, we do need to increase the base. Related to this I did note in Neil's article :

"When responding to the recent All-Party Parliamentary Group review into British tennis, Roger Draper, the LTA chief executive, pointed to the promise of two young players as proof of a golden future. Katy Dunne was one, Bambridge the other, and they are exceptional prospects"

If Roger Draper seriously pointed to one boy and one girl as proof of a golden future, I just hope he was shot down in flames. You can always get one or two exceptions ( who indeed may or may not ultimately make it ), almost no matter how good or bad the system. He needs to be showing proof of increasing the base, increasing the numbers of players with potential.

philwrig · Hall of fame

If Roger Draper did actually just mention Katy and Luke as our two exceptional prospects that is a great worry. Katy for me at the moment is a top 200 prospect whilst Luke's future potential is very difficult to evaluate. This is the first generation of juniors I have followed closely and of course I am hoping for great things. The class of 1990 for the boys were touted when I first started following the game more closely. Unfortunately for the most part that group have bombed and so I am hoping the five mentioned by The Knight are more talented at this stage than the 1990 group otherwise we may be in trouble again.

Already 3 of the 5 mentioned above are just starting to worry me in their pace of development. To become a top senior player you can't afford to stand still for any length of time as the others will catch up. We already know that the current crop of young players in the world are struggling to make an impact in the senior ranks so our 5 top junior players need to really be showing a bit more at junior level to have a realistic chance of getting into the top 100 at senior level. Both Liam and George for me had promising starts to the year but have tailed off since and Ollie appears to have parked the bus for the time being possibly because he is focused on his A level studies.

Actually Indy I think that having 5 top male juniors at one time is quite good for us. Obviously we would like alot more but that isn't a bad number and hopefully shouldn't put too much pressure on one individual.

DavidC · Tennis legend

The 5 mentioned have achieved more in a lower age bracket than the 1990 boys, and don't have the height disadvantage which Coxy and Evo have to deal with, which is less of a problem in the junior game. I wouldn't describe the 1990 group as having 'bombed' as only the two just mentioned were close to the top 10 for their year (probably just outside) if you consider both junior and pro rankings in 2007/8, so expectations shouldn't be too high - and top 100 ATP is still a realistic possibility possible for one or more of the group.

Progress for all but the very best (and none of the 5 appear to be at Andy's level) is rarely smooth, and affected by things such as exams and injuries. Even so George and Ollie need to increase their junior impact fairly soon and start concentrating on the transition to the pro circuit if they are to maintain their position within the top 10 or so of their year.

philwrig · Hall of fame

Happy to here that the current crop of juniors are performing better at this stage in their careers than their predecessors. Possibly the reason I think that the 1990 group have underperformed is that I believed the LTA hype that we had was it 8/9 junior boys ranked inside the top 100 at the same time. They made it a strong reason why things were improving under the Draper leadership.

I must admit though I would be surprised if any of the 1990 group got inside the top 100 at senior level. Love to be proved wrong.