Well, so we have it: the final we possibly both hoped for and dreaded.
We all know the H2H is in Andy's favour, but as Federer keeps reminding us, not in Finals and not in best-of-5 matches. And Roger won the last two encounters, I think. I'm sure Andy CAN win this but Fed has to be the favourite, especially after his demolition of Tsonga. Good. Andy seems to play better as underdog.
If he can start well, get Roger rattled so that he starts shanking balls, who knows? But I expect to need my cushions, tranquillisers and defibrillator so I'll keep them handy. . .
I'm not sure US Open '08 is going to be relevant here, Andy was never in the right frame of mind to win that match and it showed.
If anything he will learn from that and he just cannot allow Federer to dictate play. I didn't watch his match today but by the sounds of things Fed was pretty breathtaking.
He just needs to play like he did against Nadal, and it will then be a good match.
i think fed is perhaps weaker here than at the other slams (bar RG, where Murray himself isn't great) so really the AO is probably the best shot Andy has got, especially of winning his 1st slam final over him. he's got the experience of the US now, he's had a much easier run into it as well when compared to the USO, although Fed himself has really upped his level since the Qf's here.
I guess Fed is the big time fav for this, but at least Andy wont have the same pressure he would have if he was facing Tsonga, and whilst its uncommon i think fed can occasionally get tight in big matches on big points, unlike say rafa who never seems tight!!
andy has got to play his best, get his 1st serves in and keep focused, cant really ask for more that that. if Fed plays his absolute best then sometimes you all you can say is well done.
anyone know what time the match will be GMT? (preferably not Tim Moore )
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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.
For Andy I don't think this will be anything like the 2008 US Open final. He'll know better what to expect. There will be no wrist problems this time. He will also be fitter and fresher - especially not having to play the 3 matches in 3 days, and not having to play the world numbers 1 and 2 within 20 hours of each other - to suit the US TV schedules!
Federer's probably in better form too, and the draw's also fallen into place for him; having been able to play shortish matches in the last few rounds against players who had already given their best. - But he gets more vulnerable year on year, and I'm not convinced the self belief, and staying power is what it was a few years ago. He definitely has more, and longer, form dips than at his peak about 4 years ago. Like Cilic he'll 'come out of the blocks' fast and try to shorten the points, and the match - probably with quite a bit of serve-volley. Andy needs to hang on in the early stages
Finally, if Andy needed any further inspiration - he just has to listen to that smug little interview Federer gave to Jim Courier after beating Tsonga - clearly designed to wind-up Murray. Andy's too streetwise (or 'courtwise'?) for that now.
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Members, ...don't git weary! For the job's o'er halfway thru'!
Keep your lamp trimmed and burnin'. Soon be number 2.
The key to this match will be Andy's serve. If its on song and he can keep holding his serve he will be able to stay with Fed on the scoreline. That is when Fed is vulnerable on those tight points at the end of each set. Fed is clear favourite but nowhere near a certainty. The bookies give Fed 60% chance of victory.