ATP Tour Finals - Andy v Fernando Verdasco

The Magician Santoro · Top national player

RE: ATP Tour Finals - Andy v Fernando Verdasco

Drew · Nov 26, 2009

Good debate guys and gals but obviously no fix in the purest sense...as i said before muzza can only blame himself. Perhaps Fed did bak down in bit mentally but he like all the top guys will just hate losing...so well done potty and fed....hope Sodders wins the thing now

indiana · Tennis legend

MiloTheCat wrote:

I for one don't believe it was a fix - but it was very frustrating how easily Federer coughed up that last break.

Anyone worked out the likelihood of Andy being outside the top 4 for the AO?

Heck, I had forgotten that danger.

Alarmingly, it looks like Delpo just needs to win his semi.

Andy : Started tournament on 6630 points. 2 wins here gives him another 400 points, taking him to 7030 points. Will lose Doha, 250 points, at the start of next year with no back-up and no ATP tournament this time until the week before Aus Open ( so too late to count for seeding ). so position a week before Aus Open will be : 6780 points.

Delpo : Started tournament on 5985 points, 2 wins here again adds 400 points and takes him to 6385 points. A semi final win gives him 400 points and takes him to 6785 points. Delpo's Auckland win ( 250 points ) drops off on the Monday the Aus Open starts so in this case too late to effect seeding based on the previous Monday's rankings. His position a week before the Aus Open, if he wins his semi here will be at least ( don't know if he has an ATP planned for first week of next year ) 6785 points ( 7285 points if he wins the whole ATP finals tournament )

So, due to when their respective titles drop off, and to an extent Andy's change of schedule pre Aus Open this time, Andy is in imminent danger of being just 5 points ( minimum possible ) behind at the time that matters.

Knowing Andy's current luck.....

Edit : i.e. as The Magician Santoro surmised in fewer words smile

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 26th of November 2009 11:48:55 PM

The Magician Santoro · Top national player

I think if Del Potro does get to the final and not win the thing, Andy has to do something to ensure he stays no.4 that would be vital

Salmon · Tennis legend

I don't think JMDP will play in the first week, given that he's committed to Kooyong in the second week.

Salmon · Tennis legend

The Magician Santoro wrote:

I think if Del Potro does get to the final and not win the thing, Andy has to do something to ensure he stays no.4 that would be vital

Nothing he can do... he'll play in the Hopman Cup in the first week. ashamed

ForeverDelayed · Grand Slam Champion

If you just saw the scoreline and not the match itself then you could suggest that it was a fix, as it had every ingredient that you would expect a fix to have.

But clearly in real terms it wasn't one, although once Federer knew he was through, he may not have been trying as much as he would have done so if he had to win to qualify perhaps.

Del Potro's second serve at break point down is probably the one shot that proves it was legit... if he had caught the serve any other way than he did it would have gone long and thus he was out - for that to be fixed would have been something special. And Federer getting broken afterwards was predictable given how often players lose serve the game after having chances to break themselves.

Del Potro also didn't seem to know at the end of the match whether he was through or not... and maybe thought he wasn't, so he would have to be a very good actor for it to be fixed and pretend that well that he was not aware of qualifying.

Disappointing for Andy to go out having won two matches but in the end he can only really blame himself for not winning that one extra game to go through. Taking a break point against Verdasco, or holding at 1-5 against Federer, or taking his chances at 5-0, 5-1, or 5-2 against Del Potro would all have put him through, so it's not like he didn't have the chance.

Didn't seem to be playing his best tennis either while Del Potro has been improving throughout the event and Federer is playing well in patches so perhaps the best two players in the group went through and I imagine they will meet again in the final the way everyone has played so far.

Shame for Murray to go out this way but hopefully it will spur him on to make sure that next year he is not in a position where something like this can happen to him.

clayfan · Lower Club Player

I agree Andy hasn't played his best tennis this week, but none of the players have. Some very nervy stuff. No one will ever know the truth now about this match for sure. Trust me this is not a sour grapes comment. I can understand people being reluctant to cast doubt on the result in fear of being seen to be irrational sore losers. And we don't like to think of these things happening in tennis. But has anyone else worked out the Maths of this? Can they confirm my suspicions that any other result would have at least tied the games difference and that this was the only aggregate result that allowed both Fed and Potty to go through for certain? I suspect the press will have a field day with this tomorrow. I certainly think it is fair comment to question why such an unlikely result came to be. In the end I suspect Federer knew after winning 3 games in the final set he was through, and wasn't too bothered to prevent del p from getting what he needed. I hope it wasn't more than that.

The Magician Santoro · Top national player

Saying that Andy made his only slam final appearance to date when he was ranked below no. 4, Soderling done the same he wasn't ranked no. 4, As could be said for Tsonga, Del Potro won his at being no. 5. Struggling to think of a Number 4 seed to win a slam or get to the final. So this could possibly be a good thing for Andy, less pressure i suppose

Just trying to put a positive light on things

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

I'm almost glad Andy isn't through, I've watched all three of his round robin matches and even though he won two of them he has just looked so tired and ready for the end of season break that I don't think it's a bad thing he's finished. I don't mean physically tired, just mentally - his body language hasn't been that same, his concentration lapses every second set, his frankingly apalling serve percentage and his lack of clarity of shot selections are all aspects that he's displayed and that a good rest and off season program will get rid of nice and easily leaving him ready to start again next year. Sure I'd have loved him to win but lets be honest, based on the relative form of all the players he wouldn't have got past his semi-final. If Andy has been worthy of progressing to the semi-final then he wouldn't have lost against Federer - a guy who hasn't been at his best either and who Andy has a very good record against. Similarly Verdasco would've been broken at least twice in that second set.

As for suggesting the match was a fix, sure it's come out as a disappointing coincidence but please grow up, these are two of the top 8 players in the world, one of whom has won record numbers of grand slams, year end number 1 and so on (not to mention numerous sportsperson of the year awards), neither of them are stupid enough to jepardise their entire careers by collaborating in fixing a round robin match regardless of their personal feelings towards Andy Murray.

mkkreuk · Admin:Moderator + ATP qualifying

clayfan wrote:

Can they confirm my suspicions that any other result would have at least tied the games difference and that this was the only aggregate result that allowed both Fed and Potty to go through for certain?

a 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 in the final set would have also seen Federer and Potro through.

-- Edited by mkkreuk on Friday 27th of November 2009 12:24:08 AM

indiana · Tennis legend

clayfan wrote:

But has anyone else worked out the Maths of this? Can they confirm my suspicions that any other result would have at least tied the games difference and that this was the only aggregate result that allowed both Fed and Potty to go through for certain?

Steven did a detailed post on the scenarios earlier on. From that, after the first 2 sets, any final set victory by 3 or more games for Delpo put Andy out, i.e. 6-0, 6-1 , 6-2 or 6-3 so it cettainly didn't need to be 6 -3, indeed 6 -3 and BPs to Federer at 3 - 3 was clearly playing it far too tight for comfort as I hope some folk are beginning to realise.

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

I have been out all evening and have just got in to see this disappointing end to Andy's campaign.

However, I am not so very upset about it. He really hasn't been playing very well, he looked lethargic and often rather slower than normal, and as for the serving. . . well he described it (against Fed) as pants, and that just about sums it up. If he had squeaked through he would have played Soderling in the semi and I fear it would have been a repeat of last year - just not enough left in the tank to take out a player having a good run.

steven · Tennis legend

Aargh - I had to go at 3-3 Ad Fed - one more point and Muzza would have been through! Never have I been so disappointed to find out that I got my sums correct! cry

There's absolutely no way those two colluded to fix the result, but I do think it's possible that having failed to make that break, Fed couldn't really be bothered any more, whether or not he knew that failing to win another game would knock Andy out. In any case, Potty now has a better recent record against Fed than Muzza does.

In the end, it's that 3rd set collapse against Fed that made the difference, and perhaps the schedulers are at fault too - I'm pretty sure that a potentially fixable outcome was more likely to happen if Muzza-Verdy was the first match than if Fed-Potty had played in the afternoon. Then again, I guess if Fed-Potty had played first and Potty had won, Verdy would have been out and then he might have been more likely to tank.

P.S. If you find the conspiracy theories here funny, you should see AM.com! ROFLMAO

-- Edited by steven on Friday 27th of November 2009 12:53:59 AM

clayfan · Lower Club Player

Thanks. I only caught the gist of the earlier postings. I'm glad someone can work out this complicated format. Far too late at night for the Maths. Yes you are right, once Roger had won the second set he was just about through. So he did try more than he needed to in the final set. But at 3-3 I think we all knew what the score was going to be. I suppose that is the drawback in round robins. Difficult to keep up the momentum if you know you are already through. I wonder what Andy thought of it all!

He has been looking very tense and stressed during the week. I think it was playing at home before a huge crowd with a lot of expections. Perhaps the wrist injury is still worrying him. There are such a lot of points riding on this. From what you are saying Del Potro stands a good chance of leapfrogging Andy very shortly. I wonder too if this will make Murray change his schedule. He won't be having a very relaxing break that's for sure.