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Post Info TOPIC: ATP Tour Finals - Andy v Fernando Verdasco
steven


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RE: ATP Tour Finals - Andy v Fernando Verdasco
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It's game % not games diff. so I think it goes like this:

Qualification possibilities after Muzza's win today

Fed P 2 W 2 Sets +2 Games +10
Mur P 3 W 2 Sets +1 Games +1
Pot P 2 W 1 Sets +0 Games -4
Ver P 3 W 0 Sets -3 Games -7 - OUT

Fed beats Pot - 1st Fed 2nd Mur

Pot beats Fed in straights - 1st Pot 2nd Mur

Pot beats Fed in three - depends on game difference in the Pot v Fed match - here are the possibilities and the reasons for each one:

Pot wins up to 4 games more than Fed - 1st Fed 2nd Mur
Pot wins 5 games more than Fed, match lasts 31 or more games - 1st Fed 2nd Mur
Pot wins 5 games more than Fed, match lasts exactly 29 games - 1st Fed 2nd Mur (everything equal for 2nd, so decided on Mur v Pot result)

Pot wins 5 games more than Fed, match lasts 27 games or less - 1st Fed 2nd Pot
Pot wins 6 games more than Fed - 1st Fed 2nd Pot
Pot wins 7 games more than Fed - 1st Fed 2nd Pot (the match can't last more than 39 games, so Pot can't catch Fed's games won % in this case)

Pot wins 8 games more than Fed - 1st Pot 2nd Fed
Pot wins 9 games more than Fed - 1st Pot 2nd Fed (the match can't last more than 27 games in this case, so Fed's % can't drop as low as Mur's)

Pot wins 10+ games more than Fed - 1st Pot 2nd Mur

So, Andy can't win the group (mainly due to that dire 3rd set against Fed), but he will qualify (and possibly face the Sod) if Fed wins tonight's match OR Potty wins it in straights or Potty wins it in 3 sets and wins up to 5 games more than Fed in that match or 10+ games more than Fed.

Putting it the other way round, if Fed wants Muzza out before the KO phase, he needs to contrive to lose in 3 sets tonight and let Potty win between 6-9 games more than he does (e.g. a 6-4 6-7 6-1 win for Potty would knock Andy out), not that I'm suggesting such devious thoughts would ever enter Fed's head, I hasten to add!

To get Fed out if it goes to 3 sets, Potty would need to hand out bakery in two sets (including at least one bagel) with Fed winning his set on a tiebreak or winning it 7-5 and not winning a game in either of the other sets - pretty far-fetched in other words!

E&OE (i.e. other stattos, do feel free to check this!)

Edit: just noticed that the games tiebreak is games won % rather than game difference, so I have amended the above accordingly.

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indiana


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Cheers Steven for that clarification.

So we here do tend to think that only a Delpo win by 2 sets to 1 with a certain game difference can put Andy out.

The danger games situation is still much the same based on % rather than difference, so in the 2 sets to 1 situation a  6 to 9 games win to Delpo puts Andy out, and a 5 game win could on the scenario Steven gave.

By the way, loving the conspiracy theorists  biggrin    

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 26th of November 2009 06:52:59 PM

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Drew


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The BBC agree with us...

"Only a three-set win for Del Potro would leave the Scot's place in doubt, at which point it would come down to the percentage of games won by Murray, Federer and Del Potro."

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philwrig


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In a 3 set match all things being equal the net game winning advantage for the winner is more likely to be less than or equal to 4 than above that therefore Andy not being in the SF is a highly unlikely scenario.

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indiana


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I agree Phil,  it's basically needing Delpo to win his 2 sets clearly and Roger to win a tight one ( or as Roger has done in his first 2 matches here 2 even sets either way and one steamroll, a situation you can see more likely by than against Roger ). 

But just to make us more relaxed, Steven, what's the percentage of ATP 3 set matches ( i.e. matches that actually go to 3 sets ) that are won by 5 games or more ?   devil.gif

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 26th of November 2009 07:31:23 PM

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Drew


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If the first two sets are shared...like Delpo 7-6 5-7 the games would stand at 12-13 going into the 3rd set...so what does Potty do when it reaches for instance 3-3 in the third...does he walk off knowing that even if he wins from here he is out (if he went onto win 6-3 he would only be 3 games ahead of Fed)....very strange situations will rise and fall tonight.

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indiana


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Drew wrote:

If the first two sets are shared...like Delpo 7-6 5-7 the games would stand at 12-13 going into the 3rd set...so what does Potty do when it reaches for instance 3-3 in the third...does he walk off knowing that even if he wins from here he is out (if he went onto win 6-3 he would only be 3 games ahead of Fed)....very strange situations will rise and fall tonight.


I'm guessing that being a great sportsman Delpo would still want to win,  OK I mean I'm guessing he'd still rather like the mucho dollars for winning the match and 200 ranking points  smile

 



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DavidC


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Since Fed is far too professional to consider any contrivance (if he gave it any thought, he might prefer to have Andy through anyway, so he can beat him again in the final), and too good normally to lose by these margins, the only plausible scenario I can think of to stop Andy progressing is if Fed picks up an injury which hampers him after winning the first set.

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steven


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indiana wrote:
But just to make us more relaxed, Steven, what's the percentage of ATP 3 set matches ( i.e. matches that actually go to 3 sets ) that are won by 5 games or more ?   devil.gif
I'm not going to take the bait on that one LOL but I doubt it's very high. However, Fed has lost 9 matches that went the distance this year, and two of them have had a game difference of 5 or more over the (last) 3 sets - when Muzza beat him 6-7(6) 6-2 6-2 in the semis in Doha and when guess who (yes, it's that Scot again ...) beat him 6-3 4-6 6-1 in the semis in Indian Wells.

Edit: in fact, those are the biggest margins of defeat Fed has had in his 24 losses in matches that have gone the distance since Numpty did a +8 on him (6-7 6-7 6-2 6-1 7-6) in the Final of the TMC in 2005!



-- Edited by steven on Thursday 26th of November 2009 08:33:14 PM

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The Hoose


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Thanks for the analysis, Steven. Better than the media have managed and it's enhancing my enjoyment of the Federer match!

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alex03maccy


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Del Potro 6-2 eek.

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Stircrazy


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First set to Potty by 6-2! disbelief

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indiana


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First set Delpo  6 -2.

The  highly unlikely is a lot less unlikely than it was at the start of this match  eyepopping.gif

 

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Drew


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just one more set like that potty and we will call you friend.

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Drew


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BP potty at the start of the second....pray.gif

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