Members Login
Username 
 
Password 
    Remember Me  
Post Info TOPIC: US Open R1 - Andy vs Ernests Gulbis


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 40755
Date:
US Open R1 - Andy vs Ernests Gulbis


Andy starts with Gulbis again after their 2nd round Wimbledon meeting.

So, has Gulbis been showing much signs of improving on this year's rather erratic performances ?  Well no, and has managed to exit both Canada and Cincinnatti to players outside the top 100.

For me, Andy makes a comfortable start and wins in 3.

To follow, assuming he reaches each of these rounds :

2nd R  :  Capdeville ( Chile ) or Crivoi ( Romania )

3rd R   :  Karlovic 27 ( Croatia ) /  Navarro ( Spain ) or  Lopez ( Spain ) /  Dent  ( USA )

4th R   :  Possible seeds  :  Cilic  !6  or  Wawrinka  19 

QF  :       Possible seeds  : Del Potro 6 /  Fish 25   or  Ferrero 24  /  Simon  9

SF   :      Possible Seeds  :  Tsonga  7  /  Troiki  30  or  Berdych  17  /  Gonzalez  11  or  Monfils 13  /  Ferrer  18  or  Almagro  32  /  Nadal  3


I don't think there is much to complain about in that draw.

OK, he may have seemed to draw the short straw in having Nadal rather than Djokoic in his half.  On balance, he possibly has but Rafa has no great US Open record and we wait to see how his knees cope with a Grand Slam on hard courts.  An epic Nadal match though would not be my first choice for a semi, the day before the final.

2nd R :  As good as you could wish.

3rd R :  If Karlovic, a few I might have preferred and guess he's always a danger here even if his general GS record is not that good.  Would at least no doubt give Andy some tie break practice smile

4th R  : OK, and would prefer Cilic or Wawrinka to say Monfils. 

QF, probably not best, but he has that fairly recent Canada final win v Del Potro and beat him in QF last year ( in fact Andy could theoretically have the same L16, QF, SF and Final opponents as he had last year ).  Would have handpicked Davydenko or rather probably who else wins wins from his section smile, but noone likely easy at this stage and others in the 5 to 8 seed category are Roddick and Tsonga.  

Overall, though could be better, could be worse, just it's now for Andy to prove this is his time.

Oh, and if Final :  could well be some chap Federer  - nae bother !    

-- Edited by indiana on Friday 28th of August 2009 12:09:29 AM

__________________


Grand Slam Champion

Status: Offline
Posts: 4900
Date:

Given how Gulbis has played this year, you would expect Andy not have too much trouble making it through to round two, but perhaps is the ideal kind of opener as he'll have to guard against the possibility that Gulbis finds the court for once and so he can't afford to be sloppy.

Murray to get through in straight sets though without really having to do too much as Gulbis will once again self-destruct.

(A side note... at least we'll get some see some half-decent round one matches on TV with Murray-Gulbis, Nadal-Gasquet and Djokovic-Ljubicic all having the potential to be decent matches rather than the usual match where a straight sets win is guarenteed)

__________________


Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 12091
Date:

You mean like Fed v Devin Britton? laughing.gif Though I expect that will be on tv too.

__________________


Hall of fame

Status: Offline
Posts: 9477
Date:

I agree with Indiana the draw isn't great but not as bad as some people have made out.
Round 1 Gulbis - Seriously out of form and was whipped by andy at wimby
Round 2 Whoever it is - good draw
Round 3 Karlovic - Always dangerous but very good H2H
Round 4 All potential opponents very good H2H
QF Del Potro - only nightmare IMO clearly will need to be at his very best to win . But if he is to win this Grand Slam these are the matches in which he needs to raise his game to win.
SF Nadal -Will he even get this far ?
F Federer - Assuming he's not mentally and phsyically exhausted will stretch him all the way this time.

__________________


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 40755
Date:

Oh dear, I take it some of those folk that would never be happy unless sthey could handpick a draw been moaning again in other places  biggrin

__________________


Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 12091
Date:

The OOP for tomorrow is out, and Andy has the night session - but second after a ladies match (Sharapova) starting at midnight UK time. Drat it I can't stay awake that long, I'll have to just get the result the next morning. (Especially as it would be watching it on a tiny livestream).

__________________


County player

Status: Offline
Posts: 957
Date:

Andy wins 7-5 6-3 7-5

Gulbis was well up for this and pushed Andy hard at times but in the end a combination of Andy playing well and 51 unforced errors from Gulbis was the difference between the two.

Some good news in terms of the draw as well, Karlovic and Wawrinka both lost their 1st round matches so its opened up quite nicely.



__________________


Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

Status: Offline
Posts: 2422
Date:

Patchy display. More adventurous than usual; which is good to see. Tried a few serve and volleys behind 2nd and some other imaginative plays attacking the net; didn't always work but certainly worth a try in case it's needed in the later stages of the event. Did enough to win each set but was slightly careless, up a break in the first and second sets only to give it away through poor serving, 53% first serves in play is disappointing. 2nd serve looked very vulnerable throughout, though he did attempt to vary the direction, going into the forehand from time to time.

Gulbis was Gulbis; not too difficult to understand why he is currently ranked 95 in the world despite his big weapons. Hot in the first set with numerous stunning winners especially off the backhand and some huge 2nd serves. Unconvincing in the 2nd set and then tried harder than I expected in the third but didn't threaten to break Murray and eventually Andy found a cutting edge to his game and got the decisive break with a superb backhand crosscourt for a winner after an excellent point, working Gulbis from side to side to create the opening.

The crowd woke up when a ballboy slipped attempting to hurdle a barrier after a ball went into the photographer's area. His moment of glory/shame repeated on the big screen and enjoyed by the crowd.

Overall I'd say the imagination and variety on display was good enough to compete for the title but the execution will need to improve. Looking at the draw I think Andy needs to take the game to both JMDP and Rafa if he is to have the energy to contest the final. It's not his natural game but the scheduling of the US Open means that he can't afford to outlast opponents in the second week.

-- Edited by kundalini on Wednesday 2nd of September 2009 04:02:28 AM

__________________


Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 12091
Date:

biggrin Good morning!  I couldn't wait until I could get on the computer, so checked the result on teletext as soon as I got up. Nice to hear he was a bit more aggressive, but I wasn't expecting too much in that direction last night as I don't think that is the way to beat young hotheads who feed off it.

Next round v Capdeville should be ok surely.

__________________


Grand Slam Champion

Status: Offline
Posts: 4900
Date:

Woke up this morning with a horrible feeling that Murray had lost for some reason...fortunately it didn't turn out to be true.

Seems like Murray did enough to get the win, which is all you can ask from him to start with.

Capdeville next should be a walk in the park and if he drops a set in that match, then we should be concerned about his chances.

Draw has opened up a bit with Karlovic and Wawrinka losing (and to a lesser extent Lopez's loss), so Dent or Navarro in round three should be a passing shot practice match, while Cilic in round four looks likely as well.

The tough draw suddenly looks a lot easier now...

__________________


Newbie

Status: Offline
Posts: 1
Date:

after looking at the great study of murray's draw made by indiana, how ever I wouldn t bet on a sure victory in quarter, if he plays del potro or in semi against Tsonga or nadal who s coming back to get the 2nd world rank back. I reckon, my betting strategy would be to put some money on murray all the way to the semi and then put a bit of money on nadal or tsonga because the odds on these two players will be very interesting.
good luck murray you ll be number one sooner than everyone thinks.

__________________


Tennis legend

Status: Offline
Posts: 40755
Date:

Haven't seen any of the match so only really have your guys' comments and the stats to go on.

The bare scoreline is not that much closer than in the 2nd round at Wimbledon where most folk thought he played a good match. 

It also came after a much more dodgy opening match ( against Kendrick ) than this appears to have been.  First round matches at Grand Slams are matches to get through generally while it is good to see some form.

Ah, the serve.  Please soon work really really really hard on it ( I am sure you do smile ) so I don't have to keep commenting on it's potential weakness.

51% first serves in is not good and I worry that after early season real improvement here ( was gettiing on average up not far off Roger and Rafa ) it has gone back a bit and he cerainlyy throws in too many matches with a very low percentage.

At Wimbledon against Gulbis, he served 73% first serves in and Gulbis got 16% return points, yesterday he serves 51% and Gulbis gets 31% return points.

I really think, as is often the case with many but particularly Andy, his serve is going to be so important for his overall chances.  Serve well and you win easier points, you are less likely to be broken ( and he always has ability to break himself against anyone ) and I think he would feel happier with his whole game.  That second seve as kundalini says looks vulnerable and I don't care what the ATP stats say about how good he is at winning points on his second serve. Most players can't and don't take advantage of it, the very top  players can and wil.  All the more reason to get the percentage up, although not at all costs since it does still need penetration.   I may have said some of this before  smile

Yes, the draw has opened up a bit.  I did say that Karlovic had no great GS record. Actually I just checked up and that iss 15 GS first round exits out of 26 GSs so it was never exactly much of a guaranteed appointment.  Ivo, being Ivo, he is still better out the way I'd say.

Yes JMDP is the biggest potential hurdle along the way ( more so arguably than Rafa although we wait to see how Rafa shapes up ) unless he obligingly drops out along the well.  However, don't see who is going to help out in his part of the draw and Fish didn't even reach the starting blocks.

__________________


Hall of fame

Status: Offline
Posts: 9477
Date:

Very impressed with this first round performance. His body language was better than I've ever seen it considering Gulbis put him under a lot of pressure. Gulbis was back to his very best always looking as if he would nick a set but Andy was too good. Andy stepped it up in the 3rd set and eventhough his execution wasn't 100% it provided me with alot of confidence for the latter rounds.
His serving stats at just 53% first serves has to be analysed bacause he was going for it all the time and not just rolling it in. His average first serve speed was 120mph which is much higher than in recent times. The one negative would be his continuing punch drunk appearance after long intense rallies which confirms that these 5 set matches tire him mentally quite quickly compared to Federer and Nadal who could play for 10 sets without wilting. 8/10

__________________
Page 1 of 1  sorted by
 
Quick Reply

Please log in to post quick replies.

Tweet this page Post to Digg Post to Del.icio.us


Create your own FREE Forum
Report Abuse
Powered by ActiveBoard