Debate: is Andy good enough to win Wimbledon this year?

angry1 · Lower Club Player

RE: Debate: is Andy good enough to win Wimbledon this year?

The Hoose · Satellite level

Kundalini's considering whether Andy is going to win Wimbledon this year - I find his comments fair enough against such a benchmark.

spud · Challenger qualifying

Not attacking enough to win big on this surface, although with his counterpunching style he can upset the attackers moving up the court so touche! I think he can do well but can see a player like Fed breezing through him with power. If he can attack and get into the net earlier he can do well. As i think Murrays volleys are not used nearly enough!! He has very high class volleys and to upset the likes of Federer/Nadal on this surface maybe some Chip-charge, Serve- Volley to keep them guessing as hes capable. I would love to see this happen, but i think Murray has made up his mind on playing Federer and Nadal which is annoyingly very passive, but it works- but on this surface maybe not ?

angry1 · Lower Club Player

spud wrote:

Not attacking enough to win big on this surface, although with his counterpunching style he can upset the attackers moving up the court so touche! I think he can do well but can see a player like Fed breezing through him with power. If he can attack and get into the net earlier he can do well. As i think Murrays volleys are not used nearly enough!! He has very high class volleys and to upset the likes of Federer/Nadal on this surface maybe some Chip-charge, Serve- Volley to keep them guessing as hes capable. I would love to see this happen, but i think Murray has made up his mind on playing Federer and Nadal which is annoyingly very passive, but it works- but on this surface maybe not ?

His tactics haven't worked that well against Rafa so far,but on this I do stronlgy agree with Kundalini.He will only be more succesful playing more agressively against Rafa.He will only do that if he generally plays more attackingly,but that might make him more likely to lose early on in an upset.Worth the risk if he believes in the tactic,not so if he dumps it after every poor attacking shot.

indiana · Tennis legend

angry1 wrote:

I would say your analysis isn't based on what's really happened.

As Indiana pointed out your implication he drops his serve far too often compared to Rafa isn't accurate this season.

Hey, couple of points, I thought kundalinis' post was good for giving some views of how issues with Andy's game matches up AT THE VERY TOP LEVEL with particular regard to Wimbledon. As his subject title said, it was there partly to open up a debate. I myself replied to each of his points, most I agreed with, some I diagreed with particularly on emphais.

Also, if you read the posts properly, you will see that I do agree Andy still has issues re serve. My stats were actually to show that on average service stats Andy is still a bit BEHIND Roger and Rafa. I had shown all the stats as a more complete story after Ratty just gave selected stats as against Djokovic and Del Potor, I am a trained statistician, so I can get a bit boring about stats used in isolation or maybe not giving the full story smile I actually do think that Andy drops his serve too often, particularly when combined with consideration of the game he has otherwise after the serve. I think that Andy has improvements still to make with both his service percentage and particularly with regards to his second serve.

Anyway noone has been mentioning "rubbish" as Ratty said or "worst" as you said. Give kundalini a break ( am I saying this ? biggrin ).

He is setting out issues he sees with Andy's game at the VERY TOP level and in particular these relevant to Wimbledon.

He has set out a good opening post to set up a debate ( as his subject title infers ) and you yourself when concentrating on facts have made some reasonable points, although your inferences about what kundalini was saying I do not share.

Interesting to hear any more views on the substance of the debate.

-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 10th of June 2009 08:33:58 AM

angry1 · Lower Club Player

indiana wrote:

angry1 wrote:

I would say your analysis isn't based on what's really happened.

As Indiana pointed out your implication he drops his serve far too often compared to Rafa isn't accurate this season.
Hey, couple of points, I thought kundalinis' post was good for giving some views of how issues with Andy's game matches up AT THE VERY TOP LEVEL with particular regard to Wimbledon. As his subject title said, it was there partly to open up a debate. I myself replied to each of his points, most I agreed with, some I diagreed with particularly on emphais.

Also, if you read the posts properly, you will see that I do agree Andy still has issues re serve. My stats were actually to show that on average service stats Andy is still a bit BEHIND Roger and Rafa. I had shown all the stats as a more complete story after Ratty just gave selected stats as against Djokovic and Del Potor, I am a trained statistician, so I can get a bit boring about stats used in isolation or maybe not giving the full story    I actually do think that Andy drops his serve too often, particularly when combined with consideration of the game he has otherwise after the serve. I think that Andy has improvements still to make with both his service percentage and particularly with regards to his second serve.
Anyway noone has been mentioning "rubbish" as Ratty said or "worst" as you said. Give kundalini a break ( am I saying this ? ).

He is setting out issues he sees with Andy's game at the VERY TOP level and in particular these relevant to Wimbledon.
He has set out a good opening post to set up a debate ( as his subject title infers ) and you yourself when concentrating on facts have made some reasonable points, although your inferences about what kundalini was saying I do not share.

Interesting to hear any more views on the substance of the debate.



-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 10th of June 2009 08:33:58 AM

I still think the original post was over the top.Andy's recent record against Federer and Djokovic to me don't support an assertion that he struggles at the top level.His record to me suggests his problem is dealing with hot second tier players in earlier rounds.My interpretation of the service stats is still that the difference between Andy and Rafa is far less than implied,though.Federer must have some apalling serving days if he regularly gets 70% in yet trails Andy in an area of concern for him.

A website used to have stats for holding and breaking by surface vs tour averages and Andy was always better on serve as the surface quickened while staying excellent at returning relative to those averages.He was formerly dreadful on clay but good on grass and carpet,I still think his serve is particularly blunted by slower surfaces,not a concern here.

Not being argumentative,but do you think kundalini's write up suggests Andy is better or worse than 5th favourite?And where would you place him?A boring answer of 3rd for me.

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

indiana wrote:

Give kundalini a break ( am I saying this ? ).

Just like to highlight this bit in case anyone missed it.

Count Zero · Tennis legend

kundalini wrote:

indiana wrote:

Give kundalini a break ( am I saying this ? ).
Just like to highlight this bit in case anyone missed it.

we can make it really stand out, just in case.

Drew · Jun 10, 2009

kundalini wrote:

indiana wrote:

Give kundalini a break ( am I saying this ? ).
Just like to highlight this bit in case anyone missed it.

Count has been seen with boards wandering around Covent Garden saying the same so I think you are safe in the knowledge that people know !

indiana · Tennis legend

angry1 wrote:
Not being argumentative,but do you think kundalini's write up suggests Andy is better or worse than 5th favourite?And where would you place him?A boring answer of 3rd for me.

I think kundalini's "write up" places Andy is in his mind at best 3rd. He was giving reasons why he doesn't see Andy winning Wimbledon this year because of things still to work on at the absolute top Wimbledon level. The only other 2 players he even mentioned were Federer and Nadal.

I too would put Andy third favourite, assuming a fully fit Nadal.

Andy's serve games won and return games won are very similar to Nadal's at Andy : 83% and 39% and Rafa : 85% and 38% . I repeat that noone said his service was rubbish or far worse than others ( although I actually do think his second serve for one thing has a lot of room for improvement compared to other top players that I observe  ). We are talkng margins at the top level ( sorry to repeat myself ).

So this year Andy has won a slightly higher % of return games than Rafa. If he could win as many service games as Rafa he would logically probably win more matches than Rafa.    By the way Roger's stats are quite a bit better on serve ( 88% ) and to me very surprisingly at how much lower on return games won at 27%. Again if Andy could get much closer to Roger's serve games won, the more competitive he'd be for winning the game's top prizes.

And by the way where did kundalini ever say that Andy struggles to assert himself at the top level ? He did say that he doesn't think Andy's game is at the level to win Wimbledon and he wondered where he needed to be to be competitive ( presumably to win Wimbledon ) and set out the areas where he thought Andy couild improve.   In general I agree that I don't think it is there yet. But I would still make Andy third favourite with an outside chance of winning Wimbledon.

I would agree that kundalini saying that the likes of Roger and Rafa very rarely lose service does to my mind most certainly suggest the gap to Andy is bigger than it has narrowed to this year.

Still though, the facts are in the ATP service hold list for the year : Roger is 4th on 88%, Rafa 5th on 85% and Andy 13th on 83%., so there is still a gap ( put another way Roger loses 12% of his serves, Andy loses 17% of his, which is getting on to 50% more ), and as I said before, given Andy's wins a higher % of return games then if he could get up closer or reach their service % level, he should logically win more matches than them. All three I would suggest are placed higher than the true value of their service alone, given their all round game after the serve. The stats measure service games won, not how good the service by itself is, which is a slightly different matter.

I just checked some Wimbledon odds which showed Roger at 11/10, Rafa at 5/1 and Andy third favourite at 11/2. I wouldn't markedly disagree with that ( I had Andy at about 6/1 in my own mind before I looked at these odds ).

I take it the cheque's in the post kundalini for this defense work ? biggrin

-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 10th of June 2009 12:47:43 PM

-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 10th of June 2009 01:11:12 PM

-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 10th of June 2009 01:13:39 PM

angry1 · Lower Club Player

indiana wrote:

angry1 wrote:
Not being argumentative,but do you think kundalini's write up suggests Andy is better or worse than 5th favourite?And where would you place him?A boring answer of 3rd for me.
I think kundalini's "write up" places Andy is in his mind at best 3rd. He was giving reasons why he doesn't see Andy winning Wimbledon this year because of things still to work on at the absolute top Wimbledon level. The only other 2 players he even mentioned were Federer and Nadal.
I too would put Andy third favourite, assuming a fully fit Nadal.

Andy's serve games won and return games won are very similar to Nadal's at Andy : 83% and 39% and Rafa : 85% and 38% . I repeat that noone said his service was rubbish or far worse than others ( although I actually do think his second serve for one thing has a lot of room for improvement compared to other top players that I observe  ). We are talkng margins at the top level ( sorry to repeat myself ).

So this year Andy has won a slightly higher % of return games than Rafa. If he could win as many service games as Rafa he would logically probably win more matches than Rafa.    By the way Roger's stats are quite a bit better on serve ( 88% ) and to me very surprisingly at how much lower on return games won at 27%. Again if Andy could get much closer to Roger's serve games won, the more competitive he'd be for winning the game's top prizes.

And by the way where did kundalini ever say that Andy struggles to assert himself at the top level ? He did say that he doesn't think Andy's game is at the level to win Wimbledon and he wondered where he needed to be to be competitive ( presumably to win Wimbledon ) and set out the areas where he thought Andy couild improve.   In general I agree that I don't think it is there yet. But I would still make Andy third favourite with an outside chance of winning Wimbledon.

I would agree that kundalini saying that the likes of Roger and Rafa very rarely lose service does to my mind most certainly suggest the gap to Andy is bigger than it has narrowed to this year.

Still though, the facts are in the ATP service hold list for the year : Roger is 4th on 88%, Rafa 5th on 85% and Andy 13th on 83%., so there is still a gap ( put another way Roger loses 12% of his serves, Andy loses 17% of his, which is getting on to 50% more ), and as I said before, given Andy's wins a higher % of return games then if he could get up closer or reach their service % level, he should logically win more matches than them. All three I would suggest are placed higher than the true value of their service alone, given their all round game after the serve. The stats measure service games won, not how good the service by itself is, which is a slightly different matter.

I just checked some Wimbledon odds which showed Roger at 11/10, Rafa at 5/1 and Andy third favourite at 11/2. I wouldn't markedly disagree with that ( I had Andy at about 6/1 in my own mind before I looked at these odds ).

I take it the cheque's in the post kundalini for this defense work ?

-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 10th of June 2009 12:47:43 PM

-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 10th of June 2009 01:11:12 PM

-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 10th of June 2009 01:13:39 PM

A tame q/f exit suggest joint 5th place at best,so about 5th favourite was my reading.Relying on others errors is IMO failing to assert yourself.

I agree Roger's service statistics in general are a long way ahead of Andy's but the mention of "often serving close to 70% first serves in play",while discussing Andy's relative shortcomings,doesn't jibe with their relative 1st serve percentages.

indiana · Tennis legend

One thing I did indicate from my first post was that I disagreed with kundalini's implications on Andy's fighting spirit.

I don't in truth know where kundalini would rank Andy for this year's Wimbledon, as I said clearly third at best. Possibly you are right that expectations of a quarter or semi exit without much fight do possibly indicate lower, given he can't face Roger or Rafa before the semis. Though to be pernickety he doesn't actually say that he specifically expects a quarter final exit but quarter or semis. If he actually thinks semi is more likely, but still quite possibly quarters, then his statements would not be inconsistent with making Andy 3rd favourite.

Whatever, I should maybe let kundalini speak for himself and maybe address some of the counter points I made myself to some of the things that he really did say.

angry1 · Lower Club Player

indiana wrote:

One thing I did indicate from my first post was that I disagreed with kundalini's implications on Andy's fighting spirit.

I don't in truth know where kundalini would rank Andy for this year's Wimbledon, as I said clearly third at best. Possibly you are right that expectations of a quarter or semi exit without much fight do possibly indicate lower, given he can't face Roger or Rafa before the semis. Though to be pernickety he doesn't actually say that he specifically expects a quarter final exit but quarter or semis. If he actually thinks semi is more likely, but still quite possibly quarters, then his statements would not be inconsistent with making Andy 3rd favourite.

Whatever, I should maybe let kundalini speak for himself and maybe address some of the counter points I made myself to some of the things that he really did say.

I think listing quarters first suggests it as the more likely result,but you're right,until/unless Kundalini comments I'm wasting your time debating his post.I don't think I have unfairly characterised his comments,but if he disagrees I would apologise,but to him.

indiana · Tennis legend

Ha ha ha biggrin

This board is quite funny today smile

Do quarters not come before semis ? Think if you were expecting a player to go out in either the first or second round, maybe even more likely the second, I think I'd say I expect him to go out in either the first or second round.

Anyway, I'll shut up for now.....

-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 10th of June 2009 02:36:06 PM

-- Edited by indiana on Wednesday 10th of June 2009 02:37:24 PM

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

Yes I too would have Andy as 3rd favourite but a very distant third, highly unlikely to win it third, rather than a 20% chance of taking the title. I am assuming that Rafa's knee problems won't have much impact on his level of performance.

At the US Open last year I thought Andy would beat Roger in the final. At Aus this year I thought he was perhaps a slight favourite going into the event. Had Andy won either of those Slams then I would have had him as a close 3rd favourite.

My initial post was simply meant to point out why I thought Andy was unlikely to win Wimbledon this year so I was highlighting his weaknesses. And if you look carefully at his last 4 Slams, he lost tamely to Nadal at Wimbledon. He froze against Federer. He was ill against Verdasco and the Gonzalez match was a weird mix of being beaten by the superior player in the first set, fighting back to level then handing Fernando the 3rd and 4th sets with terrible play. Andy's fighting qualities have been far more evident in the matches he has won rather than his defeats in recent times. Going back a few years he was losing epic encounters such as the Nadal match at Aus, Clement at US Open, Nalbandian at Wimbledon etc.

The reason I mentioned a possible departure at the quarter final stage is that Andy seems vulnerable to a good player playing well on the day. His approach to most matches is essentially Brad Gilbert's Winning Ugly tennis, which for those who haven't read the book, is a focus on asking your opponent to hit his least favourite shot, especially on the key points. Now I would argue that such a strategy works well against players of modest ability and even top players who aren't on form but it leaves you vulnerable against a high quality opponent who is playing well because they will have won the point before you have the chance to hit a short slice to their forehand, a high ball to their backhand, or invited them into the net to expose their lack of volleying ability. The opposite approach is to attempt to win the point before your opponent gets the chance to strike a winner. Andy adopts this strategy in some of his matches against Nadal on hardcourt and a few other matches such as Wawrinka at the US Open last year.

On the issue of holding serve, it strikes me that Andy does not give as much thought to constructing points so they can be won within the first 6 shots, as other top players. This is especially true on 2nd serve. While Andy tends to do well with unreturned first serves, he appears to win far fewer points with his first groundstroke behind the serve and indeed his second, compared to Novak, Rafa and Roger. Many times it looks as though Andy's mindset is "let's have a long rally". Even on first serve there are times when Andy will simply get the ball in play. Add to this the fact that Andy's first serve percentage is typically 5% below the other contenders and sometimes worse than that. It is very rare for Andy to serve aggressively at 70% first serves in play. If his stats are around 70% it is normally a sign of long spells of passive serving such as occurred in the recent loss to Gonzalez.

Thank you to all those who have defended my honour in this thread.

-- Edited by kundalini on Wednesday 10th of June 2009 02:56:42 PM