Fernando has won titles on clay, reached the final of a Masters event on the surface, and in recent years a high percentage of his losses have been against Rafa, Fed or Novak. At Roland Garros he has twice reached the QF previously. Gonzalez is clearly a good player on the surface but not necessarily so impressive that he's out of reach for Murray.
If both put in average performances, expect Gonzalez to win in 4, perhaps even 3 tight sets. But if Murray serves well, looks to dominate the points on his first serve and against Gonzalez's 2nd, and comes up with a few magical shots, he should be able to make this a genuine contest. It would be no disgrace to lose to the chilean so long as Fernando has to perform near the top of his level to gain the victory.
Fernando will take on the Murray 2nd serve, so Andy will need to vary the direction, speed and spin. Expect to see several return winners but also plenty of unreturned 2nd serves.
While I've not been impressed by Andy's performances on the clay this season, I think he'll put it all together against Gonzalez and emerge the winner after a long contest.
-- Edited by kundalini on Sunday 31st of May 2009 08:28:24 PM
This match has suddenly become very, very important.
From being a match to decide who loses to Nadal in the semi-finals, it has become a great chance for either of them to reach another Grand Slam final, although I'm sure Davydenko and Verdasco are equally eyeing up the chance to reach a slam final for the first time (I'm sure Soderling won't be able to back up this result and will tamely lose in the QF's)
It's a question of now not only who can play the better tennis but who can handle the situation of having a great shot of making the RG final better... and it's probably swung the match more towards Murray as he's the more solid mentally of the two.
I still favour Gonzo to just about have enough to win the match if they play like they have this season, but a win for Murray now would be massive.
The more I think about this tournament the more excited I get, it really just opened up and everyone in it has to think they can do it. I'd say the pressure on Fed just increased about a 1000% as this has to be his best shot of completing the slams.
OOP is out - Andy is second on Chatrier tomorrow, with the first match starting at 1pm BST. As the first match is Safina who has been wasting no time at all so far, it might start anytime from 2pm!
Really hope Andy wins, but he is a bit of a long-shot for this one. Can't believe the odds I got on Gonzalez down the bookies (6/4). Gonzalez in 4 for me.
Sorry been away for a while from this place, been on my travels.
Anyway, hasn't that Murray chappee been doing well while I've been away, though just read the Ciliic thread and can't believe he wasn't getting more credit for that match, which I did watch, and his clay court improvement this year in general, ah well, wotver takes a lot to please some folk lol
Anyway, to today, hell how annoying is that Soderling. Here was me after the Cilic match looking forward to just enjoying a Murray match, a Roland Garros QF against such a good clay courter as Gonzalez, hoping clearly for a good match and even probably agianst odds but Murray even winning, then he could have the experience of playing Nadal in a Frech Open semi final.
But geez, it now suddenly seems to matter so so much more, and it's now in no way just going to be a match to sit back and enjoy. And the thing is I do believe it is a match he can win, OK he's got to play to his very best and Gonzalez maybe not ( with virus or not ? we will see ! )
Anyway, the one word I hope Andy remembers more than any is length, length, length !
He may be the best defenisve player in the world, but if he can't keep a good length I can see Gonzalez having him running all over the place as he bangs forehand after forehand, and it could be a very hard day at the office.
His gameplan against Cilic I thought was nie on perfect and I maintain that was a great game from Andy, but today I think he has to take the ball on himself a bit more and be prepared to attack, not recklessly but certainly more.
If both players are well, I do still take Gonzalez to win, but it's very far from a certainty.
Then semi against Davydenko or Soderling and then just possibly a final against Federer who isn't looking that awesome.
Sorry, I'm maybe now getting delusional....or not....
Oh, hell, Soderling, what have you done !!!??
-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 2nd of June 2009 09:24:27 AM