2009 French Open (Roland-Garros) - R4: Andy vs Marin Cilic

Stircrazy · Tennis legend

2009 French Open (Roland-Garros) - R4: Andy vs Marin Cilic

Vandenburg · Futures level

over 5 or even 4 sets youd bet on murray, im not convinced by cilics fitness,the balkan kids are known for having no bottle.

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

Cilic has beaten Andy on clay, RG juniors semis 2005 - but that hardly counts now.

Someone who watched Marin's last match reckons he played badly, it was just that Stepanek played worse. . .

Pessimist though I am, I think I'm backing Andy to win this one, unless he has a really bad day at the office.

Stircrazy · Tennis legend

I reckon Andy should pitch a tent on Court Lenglen: he's on there yet again tomorrow, after the women's match between Szavay & Cibulkova! disbelief

The latter kicks off at 10.00 BST, as usual, so Andy on at about noon, give or take? And surely he's due a match on Chatrier sooner rather than later?

ForeverDelayed · Grand Slam Champion

^^^

Murray has been on Chatrier once so far, but I'm surprised that his match tomorrow isn't on Chatrier.

Would have expected Nadal and Murray to be the two men's matches on that court, so failing that, Verdasco vs. Davydenko, but Gonzo vs. Hanescu is a strange choice to have, especially as Gonzo has already been on Chatrier (albeit against Ouanna)

May be a bit early for Murray, so for once, people may be cheering for the topsy-turvey three setter involving the women, and to be honest, I think that match will go three sets.

Cilic has had a strange time of it on the clay in his career - having won a junior slam on it, you'd have expected him to do well on the surface, and his game seems to work well on the surface, but he's never done anything of note on it, and has an awful warm-up to RG really.

I expect Murray to beat him, but think he'll probably need to improve his play from the first few matches as Cilic won't choke if he gives him a 5-2 lead, and the fact Cilic is a better player.

Murray in 4 tough sets would be my prediction, but he goes no further than this I don't think.

kundalini · Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

I must be the most optimistic about Andy's chances at RG. He's got a lot going for him on clay over five sets. He has a big serve that can win him cheap points. He has the heavy forehand. Backhand is just about the best in the game right now. Good touch on the volley and drop shot. And he is starting to be more aggressive on return on clay. Andy is also in better shape than most of the field so should be able to outlast opponents even if his form isn't quite there.

I expect him to beat Cilic. It might be due to superior talent. Or it might be a case of exhausting Cilic and taking control of the match late on. I'd like to see Andy do a better job of holding his own serve. Even on 2nd serve, he should be looking to control the points where possible. On return it may be a case of trying to stay in the points and then attempt to disrupt Marin's rhythm by varying the pace and spin on the ball.

Cilic has been serving mid to high 50s which if repeated would mean plenty of second serves for Andy to attack. The stats from Marin's 3 matches suggest that his opponents have really struggled to hit winners past him. Just 10 from Radek, 5 from Dudi Sela, while Hernych did better with 25.

-- Edited by kundalini on Sunday 31st of May 2009 12:57:42 AM

Ratty · County player

Here's a more objective assessment of Murray's chances, taking out the "fan" worries and fears.

Taking out their 5-6% profit margin, the bookies have Murray at about 72% probability to win, and Cilic 28%. This is much the same in the USA, so one does not have to adjust for UK bookies shortening the odds in response to heavy betting.

He is the fourth most likely to win his R16 match, after Nadal (99%, LOL), Gonzalez and Federer.

Not that a rationalist would ever place a bet, natch, but the maths are quite interesting ...

... except in certain circumstances - for example anyone watching the match would have realised that Azarenka was a stone certainty to win that heldover third set against Suarez Navarro, and the bookies might not have picked this up.

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

The BBC is driving me nuts.

The page for tennis coverage on the BBC says "daily coverage" on the red button. Not today it ain't, at least not on Freeview.

After much delving around the BBC site I have at last uncovered (in the middle of the live text coverage on the preceeding women's match!) that it will be on BBC2 from 11.30, noon, or 12.30 depending when the match actually starts, then on BBC1 from 1pm.

The equipment where I record Andy's matches is upstairs, if I try to record it downstairs the Other Half would be likely to switch to another program while I have to nip out to see to the lunch. What with seeing to the lunch, and going up and downstairs to set/alter the recording, I'm going to be exhausted even if Andy doesn't put us through a Murraycoaster!

ForeverDelayed · Grand Slam Champion

Murray to be on in a few minutes after Cibulkova beats Szavay 6-2, 6-4 in one of the most horrific matches of this years tournament.

Gonzo has already booked his spot in the last eight though after a 6-2, 6-4, 6-2 thrashing of Victor Hanescu in less than 90 minutes, which is pretty ominous for Murray if he does get through, as Gonzo looks to be in great form.

Armchair · County player

Great match underway, but the Beeb isn't showing it yet. I can't believe a rerun of Animal Park is that important.....

S&V · Club Coach

I have a stream going but not English commentary

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/losdomadores

Armchair · County player

I'm watching it on a BBC stream, but with a fading laptop battery. Hope it will last until TV coverage starts.

philwrig · Hall of fame

Will the drop of serve in the second game lose him this first set?

philwrig · Hall of fame

I guess no. What a shocker from Cilic at 5-5.

philwrig · Hall of fame

Andy seems to drop his intensity levels in patches and now could drop the 2nd set when he has his man beaten.