Kolya has only just come back from injury so you wouldn't expect him to be fully fit. That might help Andy's cause.

I agree with K if Andy ups his game he can win.

davydenko is just a steady top 10/20 player, regardless of surface(obv not grass where hes 100+)
hes been to a few grand slam semi finals and won a masters so what!
even at the time of nadal fed hightness when every slam final was between them , he could not establish himself as number 3 or 4, hes nothing on safin in his peak, and id even think roddick is a better player.
tho davy can have moments of briliance, hes a bit like nalbandian, if murray can get inside his head, he can win.

kundalini wrote:

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I expect Andy to win. I don't believe he is as hopeless on the clay as many knowledgeable posters, both here and on MTF, seem to believe. Even during his recent run of success on the hardcourt he has had several unconvincing wins in the early rounds of Masters events yet been able to raise his level when facing better players towards the end of the week.

He'll need to be far more aggressive, try to take control of the points rather than simply waiting for the error from his opponent. He is capable of striking huge groundstrokes on the clay, his heavy serve and his skills at the net are other weapons that can give him the edge if he can execute.

Of course it is possible Andy will produce yet another tactically inept display on the clay, much as he did against Novak last year but I suspect Corretja will have stressed the importance of playing expansive tennis.

-- Edited by kundalini on Friday 17th of April 2009 12:18:39 PM

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The problem with that argument is that although Murray does raise his game after some poor early round matches on a hard court as he gets through the event is the fact that we know he's one of the best, if not the best, hard court player in the world.

Although Murray hasn't been playing great this week, we've got no evidence to suggest that he can play better on a clay courter, and as it's his movement that is the problem at the moment, rather than his tennis, it's not something that he can just improve upon like that - it's something that takes time to improve.

I think Murray's ability on clay lies somewhere around the R16/QF of the big events, depending on what kind of draw he gets, and possibly could reach a SF somewhere, but no further - there's just too many players on a clay court that are better on the surface than he is, and Davydenko is definately one of them.

Davydenko is probably one of the best clay courters in the world outside the top 3, which surely makes him the favourite, plus he's had a couple of reasonably good wins this week already.

And the fact that he has a positive record against Murray is another thing - the way that Davydenko plays is the kind of game that Murray struggles most against (hence his record against Nalby, who is a similar player) and even on a hard court, I'd fancy Davydenko's chances to beat Murray.

Davydenko should be the favourite for this match (and I'm amazed to find that Murray is 1/2 to win, while Davydenko is 6/4... I'll definately be taking that bet!) - and I'd expect him to win, as long as this morning's match didn't take too much out of him, but then fitness isn't normally an issue with him.

If Murray wins I'd be pleasantly surprised, but at the moment, he's done nothing to suggest that he can beat Davydenko on a clay court (but that isn't to say he can't beat him on the surface)

 

Looking dubious whether they will get on tonight, Nadal will have to batter Ljubicic in short order ...

Anyone have a live streaming link for this?
- All of my usual ones are ignoring it for Spanish ice hockey (?) or German or Portuguese football highlights!