Andy reaches the semi-final of the first masters event of the year. Despite not playing at his best in most of the rounds he had enough to see off his opponents in a draw that was pretty kind to him.
He now faces Roger Federer, the number 2 seed and a player Andy has seemed to get the better of in recent matches. The current head to head is 5-2 in Andy's favour (all on hard) and that doesn't include the world tennis championships where Andy beat him again.
Andy has won the last 3 (4 including WTC) matches between the two (since the loss at the US open final) all in 3 sets. However he has been suffering the effects of a virus and doesn't seem to be on top of his game. Also Andy has never lost a semi final between the two.
Andy has yet to drop a set here, despite his illness. Federer lost a set to Gonzalez in the R16 and then saved set points against the other Fernando.
I would normally back Andy here, but I think his illness will cost him, so I hope i'm wrong, but I will go for Fed in 3.
I think you are right. I'm pretty sure Andy will be up for this match - he nearly always is against Fed - but I think, like the USO final, he just doesn't have enough left in the tank. He looked to be struggling physically yesterday.
i can see fed wanting some pay back here. but andy has a good game against fed, forcing him to make an error. could go either way. andy has played almost all of his matches in the heat i think, whereas Fed has had some night matches.
__________________
Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.
If Andy wins the tournament, I calculate that he'll be within 20 ranking points of ND. The points system seems to have changed this year, you get proportionately more points for going deeper into a tournament. I think I prefer the old system....
If Andy wins the tournament, I calculate that he'll be within 20 ranking points of ND. The points system seems to have changed this year, you get proportionately more points for going deeper into a tournament. I think I prefer the old system....
Yes, they have changed, there have been deep discussions on the subject: but I think you have your calculations wrong somewhere, if Andy were to win IW he would still be 170 points behind Novak.
Murray really has to lose this habit of dropping serve at the beginning of the second set. I thought he'd gotten rid of it but it seems to have returned this week, hopefully just a result of his illness and soon to be fixed, but still frustrating.
On the other hand, he's still a set up against Federer :)
__________________
To look at a thing is quite different from seeing a thing and one does not see anything until one sees its beauty