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Post Info TOPIC: Battle for the top


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Battle for the top


Yeah, I tend to agree with both the analysis and the emotions on this - but as said, it is what it is!!

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Daniil Medvedev wins the Mallorca 250 grass court title ( Djokovic and partner gave a w/o in the doubles final ) to again in theory have a chance to be WR 1, this time post Wimbledon.

If Medvedev reaches the Wimbledon final and Djokovic doesn't then Medvedev would go WR 1. To stop that Djokovic would have to be the other finalist and win the final.

'Just' reaching the final would take them to :
Medvedev : 10280 - 90 + 1200 = 11390 points
Djokovic : 12113 - 2000 + 1200 = 11313 points
And the final winner would then be champion and WR 1

If Medvedev doesn't reach the final Djokovic would remain WR 1 whatever since he will at least carry forward 1000 Wimbledon points ( 50% of his 2019 Wimbledon points )

Unlikely again but Medvedev rather surprised on RG clay and has better overall form on grass than his previous clay form. 

In this year's ATP race, Djokovic is challenged by Tsitsipas.

1. Djokovic 5170
2. Tsitsipas 4560

(12. Norrie 1250,  23. Evans  875 )



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So Medvedev exits at the Wimbledon L16 stage, again ending his theoretical chance of taking WR 1. The over 17 year hegemony of 4 players will continue for some tine yet.

While the asks ( at least finalist first at the French Open and then again at Wimbledon ) were always very likely to be too much, at least Medvedev has been better on ckay and grass this year and his post Wimbledon total points will rise to 10.370.

Djokovic will be somewhere from 11,113 ( with 50% of his 2019 title points ) to 12,113 ( if he wins the title again ).

1. Djokovic 11,113 / 11,313 / 12,113
2. Medvedev 10,370
3. Nadal 8,270
4. Tsitsipas 8,150
5. Zverev 7,475
6. Thiem 7,425



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The start of year rankings are :

1. Djokovic 11540 ( ATP Cup 665, Australian Open 2000 )
2. Medvedev 8640 ( ATP Cup 500, Australian Open 1200 )
3. Zverev 7840 (;ATP Cup 65 Australian Open 720 )

If Djokovic had missed both the 2022 ATP Cup and Australian Open, and once the 2020 and 2021 points for these were shaken out of the rankings, he would have been within reach of both Medvedev and Zverev if either won the 2022 Australian Open.

ie. taking out these points with no replacements would have left him on 11540 - 665 - 2000 = 8875 points.

But I guess we now need someone to stuff him reasonably early in the Aus Open to open up that possibility.



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Yes, someone in-form like Struff or Humbert to catch him before he gets his eye in.

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the addict wrote:

Yes, someone in-form like Struff or Humbert to catch him before he gets his eye in.


 One Murray (A) would be my choice.



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Djokovic has been denied entry to Australia over an issue with his visa. According to the BBC Djokovic has been in the country since Wednesday and has been told he will be

deported but his lawyers have said they will challlenge the decision.

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Looks like Indi has his wish, Djokovic has been stuffed very early. I hope he doesn't get a Lucky Loser spot wink



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With Medvedev losing the AO final he is still due to be behind Djokovic when AO 2021 drops out of the rankings unless he wins the Rottetdam 500. I make it that if we only allow for points due to drop off during February, Medvedev ends the month very slightly ahead. But again, he could also could have Rotterdam points. And I suppose there could be late WC entries.

Official 31/01 points :
Djokovic 11,015 : Medvedev 10,125

07/02 : both players are due to drop ATP Cup 2021 points with Medvedev adding back in his one non counter of 10 points :
Djokovic 11015 - 140 = 10875
Medvedev 10125 - 500 + 10 = 9635

14/02 : unchanged re points due to drop. Though Medvedev is entered for ATP Rotterdam 500 in the previous week so could make up ground

21/02 : both players are due to drop Aus Open 2021 points plus Medvedev due to drop Marseille 2020 points*  ) :
Djokovic : 10875 - 2000 = 8875
Medvedev : 9635 - 1200 - 45 = 8390
( Note that if Medvedev did add Rotterdam 500 title points on 14/02 he would now move 15 points ahead on 8890 )

28/02 : Djokovic due to drop Dubai 2020 title points. Djokovic is entered for ATP Dubai 500, Medvedev is entered for ATP Acapulco 500 :
Djokovic : 8875- 500 = 8375
Medvedev: 8390

So if Djokovic doesn't enter anything before Dubai wb 21/02, then if Medvedev wins the Rotterdam title, he should take over WR 1 on 21/02.

Otherwise the action moves to the following week where Medvedev would be ahead, allowing for Djokovic's points drop, so it would then be down to what points they earn.

 

* PS ; Medvedev doesn't actually have 45 Marseille 2020 points to defend for 24/02. These were replaced by 250 Marseille title points in March 2021 and these are not due off until the March anniversary.. So, if neiter play beforehand, there is 45 more of a live gap going into the Acapulco / Dubai week : Djokovic 8375, Medvedev 8435. Thanks live-tennis ( via Jon )



-- Edited by indiana on Friday 4th of February 2022 12:25:05 AM



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How many weeks will it be since a non-Big 4 was number one?

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christ wrote:

How many weeks will it be since a non-Big 4 was number one?


18 years tomorrow (Andy Roddick was no. 1 until 1 Feb 2004, before Federer took over the top spot for the first time on 2 Feb 2004, 939 weeks ago)

Talking of Roger, he has dropped out of the top 20 today for the first time in more than 20 years!



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Djoko lost today to Vesely so Medvedev will be #1 next week.

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JonH comes home wrote:

Djoko lost today to Vesely so Medvedev will be #1 next week.


 Truly the end of an era.

 

(Hey John, say it with more awe)

 

Aww - truly the end of an era.



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christ wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:

Djoko lost today to Vesely so Medvedev will be #1 next week.


 Truly the end of an era.

 

(Hey John, say it with more awe)

 

Aww - truly the end of an era.


 biggrin



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Aww  biggrin

Yes, I know many would argue re who the 'true' #1 is but Medvedev has been great, especially on hard courts. And of course it is partially self inflicted by Djokovic.



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