USO SF - Andy v Nadal

sitmosa · Newbie

RE: USO SF - Andy v Nadal

Vandenburg · Futures level

i cant remember the last time i was so nervous about a sporting event,maybe Euro 96 v germany, anyremeber that one?
i no im not the mos optermisitc person but this has shades of Henman vs a unamed croation
when rain interupted and then well.....................

lets hope not guys
ive waited along time since greg all those years ago....................

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

sitmosa wrote:

anyone but a scot

Not a very promising first post, sitmosa. This is a board in support of British players - all of them, and probably especially Andy Murray as that is how the board started.

By the way, any further derogatory posts will be deleted.

madfan · Social player

Feel for both the players- they have now got a 24 hour break at a crucial stage of the match. Let's hope Andy gets soe good mental advice as he really looked "in the zone" last night and it would be a huge pity if he couldn't re-create that. Wishing him loads of luck

johnnylad · Tennis legend

Wow. Whatever happens from now in Murray has made the top 3sit up and take notice with that performance so far.

What do people think will happen now?

I go for Andy in 4. Or Andy in 3? Or Andy in 5? No rafa in 5? I don't know. It's too tough to call!

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

I'm surprised that they have moved the match to Ashe. At Wimbledon, once a match has started, it is finished on the same court.

I hope the change won't be detrimental to Andy, Armstrong is apparently quicker which is in his favour, while Ashe will be more beneficial to Rafa.

Drew · Sep 7, 2008

Andy loves the biggest stage to perform. Playing on Ashe will be no prob...won in 4 sets already this week there.

steven · Tennis legend

Rounding the odds a bit to give simple fractions and ensure that they sum to 1 (the actual set score odds sum to 1.06 with a bit of bookies' margin built in!), the bookies' odds imply that the chance of each set score happening is approximately:

- a 3 in 7 chance of Rafa winning in 5 sets
- a 1 in 7 chance of Andy winning in straight sets
- a 2 in 7 chance of Andy winning in 4 sets
- a 1 in 7 chance of Andy winning in 5 sets

These odds also imply that they think that:

- Rafa has a 6/7 chance of winning the 3rd
- if Rafa wins the 3rd, he will have a 2/3 chance of winning the 4th
- if Rafa wins the 3rd and 4th, he will have a 3/4 chance of winning the 5th

That makes it look like they think Andy is doomed, but it all comes down to the fact that he has three ways to win (3-0, 3-1, and 3-2) to Rafa's one and the above probabilities are all consistent with Andy having a 4 in 7 chance of winning the match:

probability of Rafa winning = 6/7 x 2/3 x 3/4 = 36/84 = 3/7

probability of Andy winning = (1/7) + (6/7 x 1/3) + (6/7 x 2/3 x 1/4) = 1/7 + 6/21 + 12/84 = 1/7 + 2/7 + 1/7 = 4/7

indiana · Tennis legend

Good morning from New York !

Weather report first, As predicted it is a gorgeous sunny day, and is predicted to be in the 80's. It is also pretty windy at the moment.

It was great to see that display by Andy yesterday. I thought in fact the second set in particular was terrific. Rafa had warmed to the cause, but Andy still looked overall the better player, or at least without question the more complete player.

He had pressure on the majority of Rafa's serves, and OK he missed 7 break points but generally Rafa played these points excellently, although in some instances Andy I thought tightened a little, became less aggressive and was almost hoping for a Rafa mistake.

I think the break, came at an excellent time for Andy ( even though he was disputing it a bit when they first came off course, though it pretty soon became a deluge ).

I could have seen Rafa winning the third set and going on to win in 5. I now think Andy haas more of a chance, and make him slight favourite to win from here,

He has a decent shot at the third set, because althoughb a break down, the match restarts with Rafa serving, so if Andy can make a quick start who knows.

Even if Rafa does win the third set though, clearly Andy then just has to win one out of thye two remaining sets.

It is though a new day, in some ways a new match, particularly as it has been moved to Ashe ( which I hope is not particularly slower, because otherwise I think Andy likes Ashe ).

OK, just all the best, Andy, be seeing you soon !

indiana · Tennis legend

One other thing I must comment oin was the sheer quality of the tennis.

Andy I thought overall matched his quality in the Wawrinka match. Yes, he made more errors ( particularly it was more the backhand I noticed him unexpectedly netting a few, probably more noticeable becuase of the general quality of that side ).

It must though often be difficult to judge what are unforced errors, particularly after a long, ferocious rally.

I have been impressed with the knowledge of the tennis crowds here, and there were more than a few comments from around me of how awesome much of the tennis was, and I had to agree.

The facts are it was a Grand Slam tennis semi final, the quality of tennis matched the occasion and Andy certianly looked like he belonged there.

Now for today, as I said before, in some ways a new match. As long as Andy gives his all today, and plays well again, if Rafa plays better and wins, so be it. Andy will have done great. .

But clearly he can win, and then he'll only have that Federer geezer to beat tomorrow !.

kevthetim · Social player

are we going to miss the first half hour of the match?, cos it starts at 9:00 but the tv coverage on sky doesnt begin until 9:30 or can you press the red button and watch it from the start at 9?

-- Edited by kevthetim at 19:05, 2008-09-07

Bladetiger · Pro player

Just dropping by to say 'Good luck Andy!!'

Simmy26 · Lower Club Player

Also just dropping by to say good luck Andy. His performance yesterday was unbelievable, keep it up!

PS Sitmosa please don't come back to this forum spouting racist rubbish

S&V · Club Coach

Bottle gone here and stupid work things I cannot get out of mean I may not get to see too much of it.

Simmy26 · Lower Club Player

Know how you fell S&V, this is the most nervous I have ever been before any match.