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Post Info TOPIC: Murray punished for missing Indianapolis


Club Coach

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RE: Murray punished for missing Indianapolis


So the following 2 weeks after Canada and Cincinnati of last year are taken of the rankings he will gain back his 3rd and 4th best optionals of 200 and 120.. so in pretty much sort itself out in a couple of weeks thus its not really going to cost him too badly!

It certainly wouldn't have too much of an impact of his Master's Cup chances considering thts race related not entry system related.. and he is 6th atm in the race... but as he will regain the 200 and 120 of the optionals his ranking should be solid top10 meaning he will be seeded well for the years remain tournies

I may very well be wrong? lol

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He will still end up only counting 4 optionals in both systems, so I'm afraid it will still affect him.

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Club Coach

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But as its only a lesser tournament he has the 0 for (which is ridiculous btw) it shouldn't be too damaging. If we look at his optionals he has 2 wins this year (Doha-250 and Marseille-200).. then from las year he has a ST. Petersburg win to defend and a final in Metz to defend... what would have been his 5th counting optional would hav been Dubai for 75points.. and with the unlikelihood he'll respeat the success of St Petersburg and Metz from last year its possbile tht his 5th best couting optional would hav been even less than 75points. Considering he is near 200 points ahead of Gasquet in 10th behind him... 75 points wouldn't be too damaging (so i think :D).

Also considering the tournies he misse dlas year through injury ans how close he got to qualifying for the Masters Cup i think Andy should be dandt and defo top 8 for the year. (hopefully top 5)

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Big Andy Murray fan here but live within an hour of that tournament so I was dissapointed, seems a harsh punishment though.

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dougie wrote:

But as its only a lesser tournament he has the 0 for (which is ridiculous btw) it shouldn't be too damaging. If we look at his optionals he has 2 wins this year (Doha-250 and Marseille-200).. then from las year he has a ST. Petersburg win to defend and a final in Metz to defend... what would have been his 5th counting optional would hav been Dubai for 75points.. and with the unlikelihood he'll respeat the success of St Petersburg and Metz from last year its possbile tht his 5th best couting optional would hav been even less than 75points. Considering he is near 200 points ahead of Gasquet in 10th behind him... 75 points wouldn't be too damaging (so i think :D).

Also considering the tournies he misse dlas year through injury ans how close he got to qualifying for the Masters Cup i think Andy should be dandt and defo top 8 for the year. (hopefully top 5)



It may be a little harsh, but it certainly isn't a ridiculous punishment, as otherwise players would be free to withdraw from tournaments for no reason at the very last minute.

And I think it will affect him, as from the 13 mandatory events, he has only 3 QF's, which is a shocking record for a top 10 player, and I think compared with other top 10 players eg. Nalbandian, he has a large percentage of his points coming from the optional events.



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mjd


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It isn't 'a little harsh' it is in accordance with ATP rules, viz:-

.......... A player's second (2nd) withdrawal from an International Series (ISG/IS) Event whether on time of after the 12 noon deadline, shall result in a zero (0) point included as one of his best of five (5) results. Further non-consecutive withdrawals shall result in a zero (0) point allocation replacing the next best positive result for each additional withdrawal. Players with multiple consecutive withdrawals who are out of competition for 30 days or longer due to injury will not be subject to a ranking penalty as long as verified and approved medical forms are provided; or, a player shall not have the ranking penalty imposed if he completes the Promotional Activities requirement as specified under "Repeal of Fines" or if the on-site withdrawal procedures apply.


Also, if Andy withdraws late once again a further zero points is applied but I suspect that he will not make the same mistake again.

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From mjd's quote from the rules: "or if the on-site withdrawal procedures apply"

Just wondering whether that explains Nadal's trip to Stuttgart (after Wimbledon) to withdraw in person.

Does anyone know if Andy can still have this repealed by doing "Promotional Activities"?


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Incidentally, I wonder if it was not an oversight but a calculated risk. 2 years ago he ran out of steam playing 3 tournaments in a row at this time of year - they may have thought it was worth while dropping what will eventually be 75 points to ensure he was fresh for these two back-to-back Masters.

Of course he shouldn't have been entered for it in the first place, or withdrawn sooner . . .

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RJA


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murrayfan99 wrote:

From mjd's quote from the rules: "or if the on-site withdrawal procedures apply"

Just wondering whether that explains Nadal's trip to Stuttgart (after Wimbledon) to withdraw in person.

Does anyone know if Andy can still have this repealed by doing "Promotional Activities"?




 In all honestly I hope he doesn't even try to get it repealed. Once last years Canada and Cincinnati points come off this zero pointer will only be costing him 75 points. The way he is playing he looks a shoe in for the Masters Cup and for a player looking to establish himself as one of the best players in world it would be beneath him to do some tacky promotional event just to get back a few points back.



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I think you can only get them back by doing promo activities at the tournament you withdraw from, so it's probably not an issue.

Given what's happened over the last couple of weeks, he's probably gained more than he's lost fro mthe whole episode anyway, not that this could have been foreseen at the time uness he was super-confident!

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It shouldn't cost him now, as he's pretty much guarenteed a top 8 finish now unless he has a disasterous end to the season, but it's still pretty careless and could cost him something minor eg. if he wins the Olympics and Ferrer/Davydenko lose in round 1, it may cost him a top 4 seeding at the US Open (not sure how close he could get to them if that happens though), or may miss a top 4 seeding in Madrid because of it.

EDIT: He'll still be miles behind the top 3 though.... Federer has scored 1000 points more this year than Murray has scored in his last 12 months of tournaments

-- Edited by ForeverDelayed at 11:55, 2008-08-05

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Yes, the odd thing is that Murray is closer to Fed in the race than Fed is to Rafa, but he's still only got half Fed's points!

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FD - US Open seedings will be decided before the end of the Olympics so it won't have any impact on Murray's seeding. Whilst I can understand where you are coming from I still think you are being a bit critical here. Of course players shouldnt' pull out and I agree if the rules are such then he should be punished.

However Andy knows his body best and you have to back him on that. Last week you were saying it would definitely affect him as his record in Mandatory events was shocking. Now I accept hindsight is a wonderful thing but I remember thinking at the time that it was improving all the time and outside the top 3 his record wasn't that bad. 2 tourneys later it's loking much better.

Now you are saying it will still affect him for seedings maybe. Well you could be correct but Andy would argue if he had played Indy then he wouldn't have been in great nick for these two Mastser and it was a judgement call. I expect with the number of tournaments Andy will play for the rest of the year it will be unlikely to cost him much more than 75 points.

At the rate he is progressing that shouldn't affect him too badly. Of course that is still miles behind the top 3 but as long as he keeps his current rate of progression then that will surely change. Just remember this mantra....glass is half full, glass is half full wink

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His record in mandatories still isn't brilliant with 4/13 QF's, and only Wawrinka has a worse record from top 10 players (Roddick and Nalby have also reached 4, but haven't played many of the events due to injury and not being bothered to play them) but it's definately getting better, and I'd expect him to add a US Open and Madrid QF to that as well, providing he doesn't have a bad day and lose early to someone.

Seedings for the US Open will be done on the rankings from the week before, which will include the points from the Olympics, so it could have an effect (i think he may be too far behind to make the top 4 anyway, even with the points, but I don't know about that), and hopefully after the US Open he'll be top 4 anyway so it won't be making a difference, as Davydenko and Ferrer have SF's to defend.

Withdrawing if he didn't feel able to play is perfectly fine... it's the fact he left it so late after having done so previously in the year that is the issue... it's a careless mistake to make and one that should not be happening to a top 10 player and that could have affected him, but with his results in Toronto and Cincinatti it won't, so in that respect he's got lucky.

If he'd withdrawn a day or two earlier then he wouldn't have had the punishment... which is the real issue

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I do agree with FD that it is clearly the case that it was extremely careless of Andy to end up having to count a zero score for Indianapolis.  It is something that should certainlly have been avioded with the correct foresight.

As it happens, by a mixture of some statistical quirks and, undoubtablty it should be said, Andy's play in the last 2 weeks, for the 3 weeks he has so far carried a "penalty" of first 75 points, then 120 points and now 200 points, it has not actually even effected a ranking position.

The first 2 weeks he was so far behind Blake, the points being retained didn't effect his position, and he is now clearly so far behind Ferrer, that again even 200 points doesn't effect his position.

However, I couldn't resist seeing if his penalty could theoretically deny him a top 4 seeding at the US Open, and the answer as I see it is theoretcally it could deny him a 5th seeding ( which is not greatly here nor there ), but not a top 4 seeding ( if everyone is fit ), and then only if Andy wins the Olympics, and Davydenko fails to reach the final.

As FD rightly says, the Olympic week will count towards the US Open seeding, being counted in the previous Mondays' rankings.

Ignoring the Olympics first and simply adding on each player's 4th and 5th optionals and taking off last year's Canada and Cincinnati Masters we have :

Murray :  2135  + ( 320 - 40 )   =  2415   ( 18th score 120 )
Davydenko   :   2795  +  ( 255 - 350 )  =  2700  ( 18th score 120 )
Ferrer  :  2775  +  (  250  -  160  )  =  2865  (  18th score  75 )

If Andy was to win the Olympics, he would receive 400 points and out would go his 120, so he would be on 2695 points, still just behind Davydenko, and well behind Ferrer, even assuming they gain nothing at the Olympics.

However, if he still had his 75 points counting he would, before counting any Olympic score, be =  2490  ( 18th score 75 ), and if he won the Olympics, he would score 400 points and lose his 75, so he would be on 2815. Essentially it would be back to costing him 120 points, which could make a difference. But only in overtaking Davydenko, not Ferrer.

The final ( 280 points ) would not be enough for this,  since that would leave him again just on 2695 points.  The only way he could finish ahead of Davydenko is to both not have the penaly AND win the Olympics, in which case he would have 2815 points and be potentially ahead of Davydenko but still behind Ferrer.

The only other detail would be that for Davydenko to stay below 2815 points, he could not reach the final, otherwise he would then be on 2700 + ( 280 - 120 ) = 2860.

I am pretty sure that is the general position, but I can see me coming back to edit some of the exact figures that I may have slipped up on. 

However, I am now clear that he could very well be denied a top 4 seeding at the Paris and / or Madrid Masters, given he can by the US Open be theoretically ahead of Davydenko, and within range of Ferrer ( and at the very least should have closed in a bit on both of them ), and as FD said both Davydenko and Ferrer are defending 450 points ( semis ) at the US Open.  It could still be say quite tight with Ferrer for 4th place, largely due to Ferrer still carrying 500 points from last year's Tennis Masters Cup until after Paris. 
 
So, I'd say it's had no effect at all till now, it can't have any effect on denying him a top 4 seeding at the US Open, nor can it now realistically prevent him reaching the Masters Cup Final ( unless things go badly wrong from here on ).  The most likely possible effect is that it could deny him a top 4 seeding at Madrid / Paris.  Although, that said, if he is close enough, for it to make a difference then he will have had to have done pretty well at the Olympics and / or the US Open, and possibly optionals too, so we might just about accept that smile   

Disclaimer :  the above assumes all the top 6 remain fit and contest these tournaments.  If not, we are in a different ball game, and I've been wasting my time  !!  I've also only looked at how it could possibly effect him upwards, not downwards, since it does look unlikely with the additions coming Andy's way that he should be close to falling out of the top 8 again.  

I will be asking questions on all this next week !  smile 




-- Edited by indiana at 17:58, 2008-08-05

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