Andy has never beaten Richard; they met twice last year, in the Toronto Masters (outdoor hard, I think) and the Paris Masters (indoor hard). Come on, Andy, it's high time you started putting that H2H right!
Gasquet is exasperating, whether you are supporting him or his opponent: he can play absolutely brilliantly or complete rubbish, depending which side of the bed he got out of that morning. I'm hoping for a good match with Andy coming out with the W (but I'll be quite happy to take the W with Richard playing rubbish if that is the way it happens!). I've heard conflicting reports about how well he is playing this week, but he has kept winning so far anyway. I really hope Andy can put a stop to that, killing two birds with one stone - the facts that his detractors keep bringing up that he has never gone beyond R4 in a slam and also is inclined to do badly against the other young players.
However Andy played well against Gulbis at Queens, taking into account the slippery conditions, so I am hoping he can continue as he has done so far this week.
Henman seemed to beat Gasquet without any trouble so I suspect the key is to take his time away; body serves troubled him in one match I watched. Andy played poorly in the match in Canada, he'd run out of gas by that stage in the tournament, having been in the final the previous week. Worth noting that Murray really struggled to return Gasquet's sliced serve.
Both players have been broken 4 times so far; in Richard's case, Simon got all 4 breaks which is perhaps the most hopeful sign for Andy. Gasquet's first serve has been doing a lot of damage, 59%, 63% and 73% in play to date. Interestingly, Richard is one of the few players to serve as slowly as Andy on 2nd.
I'd like to see Andy serve and volley at least 1/3 of the time on first serve, and to attack the net whenever he gets hold of a return, especially against the second serve. If he lets Richard dominate then I can't see him getting enough shots passed an excellent volleyer such as Gasquet.
If Andy can serve aggressively in the 60s then I like his chances but if it's below 55% then it'll be a real struggle to win.
Gasquet was excellent against Fish, played well against Grosjean, but by all accounts struggled against Simon, so appears to have got worse as the week has progressed.
Murray has a great chance here, but if Gasquet decides he's interested in the match, I'd favour him to get the win as his game is just better on a grass court. But if the Gasquet of 2008 shows up, then Murray really shouldn't be losing.
He's lost to Baghdatis, Nadal and Davydenko at the Round 16 stage before, so it's not like he loses to weaker players, but the fact he hasn't got beyond this stage does pose a concern, especially when coupled with his dismal record against the other players in his generation.
I'm going to say Gasquet will win this.... but am happy to be proven wrong.
I was just having a look at the rankings, and working out the old "What ifs" for Andy's ranking following Wimbledon.
Andy's ranking on Monday was no.11 with 1555 points. By reaching round 4, he has added 150 points ( and lost none since he missed last year ), so is currently on 1705 points.
1) If he loses to Gasquet in the last 16, he will finish on 1705 points and at best he will be no. 10 and at worst no. 12.
He falls below no.10 if any of the following reaches the final : Gasquet, Youzhny, Verdasco, Baghdatis, Hewitt, Lopez, Ancic, Tipsarevic or Cilic ( Cilic would actually be level ). All but the first 3 would actually have to win the title Clearly only at most 2 of these can reach the final
2) If he beats Gasquet, but then loses in the quarter finals, he will finish on 1805 points and at best he will be no. 9 and at worst no. 12.
He falls below no. 9 if Wawrinka reaches at least the quarter finals or if any of the following reaches the final : Youzhny, Verdasco, Baghdatis, Hewitt, Lopez or Ancic. All but Youzhny and Verdaso would actually have to win the title.
3 ) If he beats Gasquet, and ends up finally losing in the semi finals, he will finsih on 2005 points and at best he will be no. 8 and at worst no. 10.
He falls below no. 8 if Wawrinka reaches at leat the semi finals or if Verdasco wins the title.
4) If he beats Gasquet, and ends up finally losing the final, he will finish on 2255 points and at best he will be no. 6 and at worst no. 7
He would only be no.7 if it was Wawrinka that beat him in the final.
5) If he beats Gasquet, and goes on to win the title, he will finish on 2555 points, and be ranked no. 6
I'm so excited for this match. Wish them stupid girls would get off centre court so that we can get some tennis played
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