2008 AUS OPEN PICK 'EM and Battle of the Boards

steven · Tennis legend

2008 AUS OPEN PICK 'EM and Battle of the Boards

RobC · All-time great

Spadea's about to take a 5- setter off Stepanek: 5-3 up and about to serve for it.

steven · Tennis legend

Stepanek served for a straight sets win in that match, an unbelievable meltdown followed.

You lot finally saw off VamosBrigade, so it's MTF up next in the KO competition - that could be a cracker of a match!

I'm a bit embarrassed that we (Rusedski.co.uk) only saw off the massed cheerleaders that make up AndyRoddick.com by 0.05 points per player (that means that if just one of our team had got just one less pick correct, we'd have lost!), but I see both we and they finished R1 above you lot in the teams league and the poor one-man LTA team is the equivalent of last, so maybe it's not us who should be embarrassed LOL.

Michael from this board had a storming day in the individual - up 139 places to 7= and just 2 points (one R2 win) off the lead! seagull and RedCabbage are a point further back in 12= with me after I had a very mediocre day.

RobC · All-time great

Hmm - MTF will be a difficult R2 opponent: especially with my pathetic contribution to the team score so far.

steven · Tennis legend

Nobody seems to have noticed yet, but Count continues to own sheddie in the bottom half of the draw and has pulled away from him again - Count is now 18= on 73 (behind top BT seagull, who is 12= on tiebreak, also on 73) to sheddie's 95= on 68. Of course, sheddie outpointed the Count in the top half of the draw in R1, so tonight could see that mini-battle get tight again.

As a team, you're behind MTF in your QF, but not that far behind, and in the top half of the draw you weren't nearly as far behind them in R1 as you were in the bottom half of the draw. You could do with a Cilic win tonight, in particular (there are big swings on offer in that match), though my team and I could do with him losing, so I might not be cheering for him!

Drew · Jan 16, 2008

175th out of 268 thats good for me....!

Count Zero · Tennis legend

steven wrote:
Count continues to own sheddie in the bottom half of the draw and has pulled away from him again

its a shame there is no dancing man emoticon.

-- Edited by Drew at 13:05, 2008-01-17

Drew · Jan 17, 2008

Count wrote : its a shame there is no dancing man emoticon.

Is that silly enough ?

Count Zero · Tennis legend

thats perfect

steven · Tennis legend

You're playing AM.com in the semis. It's just like the old 2-team days!

Using the AM and BT columns on the picks analysis page and multiplying the differences by 3 points (since it's 3 points per win in R3), which is easy to do when you're the one with the spreadsheet (!), I get the following potential swings from tonight's matches in the BT.net v AM.com semi-final:

0.02 swing to AM if (8) Richard Gasquet wins
0.10 swing to BT if (31) Igor Andreev wins

0.00 i.e. no swing either way if Jo-Wilfried Tsonga wins
0.00 i.e. no swing either way if Guillermo Garcia-Lopez wins

0.09 swing to BT if (14) Mikhail Youzhny wins
0.09 swing to AM if (20) Ivo Karlovic wins

0.06 swing to AM if (4) Nikolay Davydenko wins
0.00 i.e. no swing either way if Marc Gicquel wins

0.14 swing to AM if (6) Andy Roddick wins
0.31 swing to BT if (29) Philipp Kohlschreiber wins

0.14 swing to BT if (24) Jarkko Nieminen wins (*)
0.30 swing to BT if Mardy Fish wins (*)

0.38 swing to BT if (23) Paul-Henri Mathieu wins
0.06 swing to AM if Stefan Koubek wins

0.00 i.e. no swing either way if (2) Rafael Nadal wins (everyone on both teams picked him)
0.00 i.e. no swing either way if (28) Gilles Simon wins (nobody on either team picked him)

(*) The Nieminen-Fish match helps BT whoever wins simply because many more BTs than AMs had at least one of the correct players reaching R3 in the first place.

So, as you can see, the crunch matches tonight are Duckboy-Kohli, where BT need Kohli to win, Nieminen-Fish, where Nieminen winning would be only best damage limitation for AM, and PHM-Koubek, where Koubek winning would only give them a slight gain but PHM winning would give you a big gain.

It looks likely that BT will lead at the halfway point in the tie (i.e. after today), but when I post the top half swing analysis tomorrow, we'll see what chances AM.com have of catching up. In essence, you want to be a safe distance ahead by the end of tonight, because they are probably going to come back at you on Saturday.

OTHER SEMI

In the other semi, it looks likely that Dammit.net will have a huge lead at the end of today, but I know we did better than them in the top half in R2, so for us (GR), just like AM, it's a case of hoping for damage limitation tonight:

0.01 swing to RG if (8) Richard Gasquet wins
0.01 swing to GR if (31) Igor Andreev wins

1.40 swing to RG if Jo-Wilfried Tsonga wins
0.00 i.e. no swing either way if Guillermo Garcia-Lopez wins

0.23 swing to RG if (14) Mikhail Youzhny wins
0.23 swing to GR if (20) Ivo Karlovic wins

0.51 swing to RG if (4) Nikolay Davydenko wins
0.00 i.e. no swing either way if Marc Gicquel wins

0.00 i.e. no swing either way if (6) Andy Roddick wins
0.00 i.e. no swing either way if (29) Philipp Kohlschreiber wins

0.50 swing to RG if (24) Jarkko Nieminen wins
0.00 i.e. no swing either way if Mardy Fish wins

1.37 swing to RG if (23) Paul-Henri Mathieu wins
0.00 i.e. no swing either way if Stefan Koubek wins

0.21 swing to RG if (2) Rafael Nadal wins
0.00 i.e. no swing either way if (28) Gilles Simon wins

-- Edited by steven at 01:50, 2008-01-18

Drew · Jan 18, 2008

Well Im staggered...upto 50th !!!!

Cmon bt.net

Drew · Jan 18, 2008

How many players picker Kolschreiber to beat Roddick ?

steven · Tennis legend

Just three, all from here - Abc, you and Guy. From the picks analysis, it looks like you all have him going another round further too.

I admire your foresight! I've always been impressed with Kohli too, e.g. his excellent serve, his attitude, the accuracy of his shots. Yet it has always seemed like he holds something back and that was why his rise up the rankings hasn't been more spectacular. Last night, he wasn't holding back any more, he went for all of his shots in a big way. He even explains that himself in his interview.

This could be the breakthrough he needs to become the best male German player since Boris Becker (i.e. better than Kiefer and Haas), it probably depends on whether he can maintain that intensity for a series of matches and whether him being able to maintain his accuracy even when really going for it was a one-off or something he can manage again and again.

Having seen how he handled the situation last night, I think this really could be a proper breakthrough, though whether he can recover enough from that effort and the 2 am finish to win his R4 match is another matter entirely!

Also, to expand on my answer to the Count's question on my whiteboard, no the bit after the Steven in my BBC login isn't my surname (I tend not to post that on open forums), but well spotted, it was my comment that got reported in the live commentary.

Since getting a BBC login for pick 'em advertising purposes, I've posted once or twice before on there during live commentary (usually serious, insightful (I wish!) comments), without ever getting quoted, so I couldn't help wondering what would happen if I answered the shallowest question there.

Digression: My girlfriend is German, so our satellite dish is pointed at the satellite with the main German channels. Hence I can only get the German version of Eurosport. That's no bad thing because it has a brilliant commentator who knows more about the lesser GB players than the British commentators, even if that isn't saying much. He also has this knack of just happening to answer the questions you want answered instead of chuntering on about nothing like most of the Brits do.

Being German, he doesn't usually get excited even when people like Tommy Haas are playing, but the words "wahnsinnig!" (crazy!) and "Mein Gott (actually he says "mein gut" so as not to offend), das war UNGLAUBLICH gut!" (that was UNBELIEVABLY good!) were flying out of his mouth regularly today, as was a running count of Kohli's winners as they got near (and past) 100!

Anyway, Kohli is popular there (rightly so) and tends to be German Eurosport's roving interviewer at slams once he's been knocked out, so I know a fair bit about him, including what his girlfriend's name is. So, I posted about her on the 606 thread that went along with the live commentary today (since the issue of who she was had already been raised) and BINGO, it gets used! LOL

As predictable as it was embarrassing ...

steven · Tennis legend

BT.net lead AM.com by 0.83 points per player halfway through their semi. The potential swings in the top half of R3 are:

0.06 swing to BT if Fed wins
no swing either way if Tipsy wins

0.30 swing to BT if Berdbrain wins
0.40 swing to AM if Juan Monaco wins

0.03 swing to AM if Blakey wins
0.06 swing to AM if Seba wins

0.06 swing to BT if Gonzo wins
0.13 swing to BT if Cilic wins

0.01 swing to BT if Nole wins
no swing either way if Sam Querrey wins

0.18 swing to BT if Cmawwwn wins
0.13 swing to AM if Baggy wins

0.04 swing to BT if Numpty wins
0.24 swing to BT if the Mosquito wins

0.60 swing to AM if Pics wins
no swing either way if Spadey wins

Given that AM.com seem likely (famous last words!) to get their 0.60 swing from Pics beating Spadey and will then need 0.23 more, it looks like the Berdych-Monaco match will be crucial, with AM.com needing Monaco to win in order to take the lead. If so, which team reaches the Final is likely to come down to the blockbuster night match between Baggy and Cmawwwn, which could see the noise levels dwarf even those at the Duckboy-Kohli match.

Drew · Jan 19, 2008

Well up 5 overnight to 45th...im just waiting for me to plummet...as per the norm for me.....well done to Seagull who tops the bt.net table....and he is now 11th overall in the individual standings.

I see Count has fallen from grace....but he still is ahead of Sheddie !!!