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steven


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RE: PICK 'EM at Roland Garros
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I can now confirm all of the possible swings in the team averages from R1 matches - actual winners so far marked in bold:

First the top half of the draw:

BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (1) Roger Federer => no swing possible
BT: 0% / AM: 0% for Michael Russell => no swing possible

BT: 89% / AM: 75% for (Q) Marin Cilic => 0.14 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 11% / AM: 25% for (WC) Thierry Ascione => 0.14 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 16% / AM: 0% for (Q) Ivo Minar => 0.16 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 84% / AM: 100% for Potito Starace => 0.16 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 0% / AM: 0% for Carlos Berlocq => no swing possible
BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (30) Julien Benneteau => no swing possible

BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (17) Juan Carlos Ferrero => no swing possible
BT: 0% / AM: 0% for Amer Delic => no swing possible

BT: 79% / AM: 54% for Stefan Koubek => 0.25 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 21% / AM: 46% for (Q) Christophe Rochus => 0.25 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 63% / AM: 71% for Nicolas Lapentti => 0.08 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 37% / AM: 29% for Alexander Peya => 0.08 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 0% / AM: 0% for Jan Hernych => no swing possible
BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (13) Mikhail Youzhny => no swing possible

BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (9) Tommy Robredo => no swing possible
BT: 0% / AM: 0% for Sergio Roitman => no swing possible

BT: 32% / AM: 67% for Chris Guccione => 0.35 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 68% / AM: 33% for (Q) Konstantinos Economidis => 0.35 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 84% / AM: 96% for Janko Tipsarevic => 0.12 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 16% / AM: 4% for (Q) Dusan Vemic => 0.12 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 0% / AM: 4% for (LL) Fernando Vicente => 0.04 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 100% / AM: 96% for (22) Marat Safin => 0.04 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 95% / AM: 100% for (29) Filippo Volandri => 0.05 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 5% / AM: 0% for (Q) Paul Capdeville => 0.05 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 74% / AM: 50% for Martin Vassallo Arguello => 0.24 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 26% / AM: 50% for Alejandro Falla => 0.24 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 68% / AM: 67% for Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo => 0.02 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 32% / AM: 33% for Stanislas Wawrinka => 0.02 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 16% / AM: 17% for Arnaud Clement => 0.01 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 84% / AM: 83% for (7) Ivan Ljubicic => 0.01 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (4) Nikolay Davydenko => no swing possible
BT: 0% / AM: 0% for Stefano Galvani => no swing possible

BT: 16% / AM: 38% for (WC) Alexandre Sidorenko => 0.22 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 84% / AM: 63% for Werner Eschauer => 0.22 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 79% / AM: 67% for Michael Llodra => 0.12 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 21% / AM: 33% for Nicolas Devilder => 0.12 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 0% / AM: 4% for Justin Gimelstob => 0.04 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 100% / AM: 96% for (32) Nicolas Almagro => 0.04 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 89% / AM: 96% for (18) Juan Ignacio Chela => 0.06 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 11% / AM: 4% for Fabrice Santoro => 0.06 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 0% / AM: 17% for Olivier Rochus => 0.17 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 100% / AM: 83% for Gael Monfils => 0.17 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 63% / AM: 79% for (Q) Ivan Navarro Pastor => 0.16 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 37% / AM: 21% for (Q) Boris Pashanski => 0.16 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 5% / AM: 4% for Hyung-Taik Lee => 0.01 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 95% / AM: 96% for (15) David Nalbandian => 0.01 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (11) Richard Gasquet => no swing possible
BT: 0% / AM: 0% for (WC) Nicolas Mahut => no swing possible

BT: 79% / AM: 88% for Kristof Vliegen => 0.09 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 21% / AM: 13% for Danai Udomchoke => 0.09 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 26% / AM: 13% for Martin Verkerk => 0.14 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 74% / AM: 88% for Simone Bolelli => 0.14 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 0% / AM: 0% for Victor Hanescu => no swing possible
BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (19) Guillermo Canas => no swing possible

BT: 26% / AM: 33% for (27) Jurgen Melzer => 0.07 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 74% / AM: 67% for Jose Acasuso => 0.07 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 0% / AM: 0% for (Q) Fabio Fognini => no swing possible
BT: 100% / AM: 100% for Juan Monaco => no swing possible

BT: 37% / AM: 54% for (WC) Edouard Roger-Vasselin => 0.17 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 63% / AM: 46% for (Q) Marcos Daniel => 0.17 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 0% / AM: 0% for Radek Stepanek => no swing possible
BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (5) Fernando Gonzalez => no swing possible


__________________

GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html
steven


Tennis legend

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And now the bottom half of the draw:

BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (6) Novak Djokovic => no swing possible
BT: 0% / AM: 0% for (LL) Santiago Giraldo => no swing possible

BT: 47% / AM: 83% for Sam Querrey => 0.36 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 53% / AM: 17% for (Q) Laurent Recouderc => 0.36 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 26% / AM: 0% for (WC) Jonathan Eysseric => 0.26 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 74% / AM: 100% for (WC) Olivier Patience => 0.26 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 0% / AM: 13% for (LL) Mariano Zabaleta => 0.13 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 100% / AM: 88% for (26) Agustin Calleri => 0.13 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 74% / AM: 88% for (21) Dmitry Tursunov => 0.14 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 26% / AM: 13% for Alessio Di Mauro => 0.14 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 100% / AM: 100% for Fernando Verdasco => no swing possible
BT: 0% / AM: 0% for (Q) Jerome Haehnel => no swing possible

BT: 37% / AM: 42% for Robby Ginepri => 0.05 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 63% / AM: 58% for Diego Hartfield => 0.05 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 0% / AM: 0% for Daniele Bracciali => no swing possible
BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (12) David Ferrer => no swing possible

BT: 42% / AM: 71% for (16) Marcos Baghdatis => 0.29 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 58% / AM: 29% for Sebastien Grosjean => 0.29 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 79% / AM: 79% for Kristian Pless => no swing possible
BT: 21% / AM: 21% for Yen-Hsun Lu => no swing possible

BT: 68% / AM: 96% for Thomas Johansson => 0.27 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 32% / AM: 4% for Jan Hajek => 0.27 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 0% / AM: 0% for (Q) Bohdan Ulihrach => no swing possible
BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (24) Dominik Hrbaty => no swing possible

BT: 26% / AM: 25% for (31) Florian Mayer => 0.01 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 74% / AM: 75% for Paul-Henri Mathieu => 0.01 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 11% / AM: 8% for Vincent Spadea => 0.02 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 89% / AM: 92% for Gilles Simon => 0.02 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 37% / AM: 33% for Luis Horna => 0.04 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 63% / AM: 67% for Nicolas Massu => 0.04 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 37% / AM: 38% for Igor Andreev => 0.01 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 63% / AM: 63% for (3) Andy Roddick => 0.01 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 95% / AM: 75% for (8) James Blake => 0.2 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 5% / AM: 25% for Ivo Karlovic => 0.2 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 37% / AM: 17% for (WC) Peter Luczak => 0.2 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 63% / AM: 83% for Jonas Bjorkman => 0.2 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 5% / AM: 0% for (LL) Juan-Pablo Guzman => 0.05 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 95% / AM: 100% for Oscar Hernandez => 0.05 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 11% / AM: 0% for (Q) Lukas Dlouhy => 0.11 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 89% / AM: 100% for (28) Philipp Kohlschreiber => 0.11 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (23) Carlos Moya => no swing possible
BT: 0% / AM: 0% for Andreas Seppi => no swing possible

BT: 74% / AM: 79% for Florent Serra => 0.05 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 26% / AM: 21% for Igor Kunitsyn => 0.05 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 26% / AM: 63% for Robert Kendrick => 0.36 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 74% / AM: 38% for (Q) Juan Pablo Brzezicki => 0.36 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 0% / AM: 0% for Guillermo Garcia-Lopez => no swing possible
BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (10) Tomas Berdych => no swing possible

BT: 100% / AM: 100% for (14) Lleyton Hewitt => no swing possible
BT: 0% / AM: 0% for Max Mirnyi => no swing possible

BT: 42% / AM: 33% for Marc Gicquel => 0.09 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 58% / AM: 67% for Gaston Gaudio => 0.09 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 68% / AM: 92% for Benjamin Becker => 0.23 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 32% / AM: 8% for (WC) Mathieu Montcourt => 0.23 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 32% / AM: 21% for Feliciano Lopez => 0.11 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 68% / AM: 79% for (20) Jarkko Nieminen => 0.11 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 84% / AM: 92% for (25) Robin Soderling => 0.07 swing to AM if he wins
BT: 16% / AM: 8% for Albert Montanes => 0.07 swing to BT if he wins

BT: 5% / AM: 4% for Ernests Gulbis => 0.01 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 95% / AM: 96% for Tim Henman => 0.01 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 47% / AM: 21% for (Q) Flavio Cipolla => 0.27 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 53% / AM: 79% for Teimuraz Gabashvili => 0.27 swing to AM if he wins

BT: 5% / AM: 0% for Juan Martin Del Potro => 0.05 swing to BT if he wins
BT: 95% / AM: 100% for (2) Rafael Nadal => 0.05 swing to AM if he wins

(John picked Tigger to win the title but decided that he couldn't get past Rafa, so JMDP would have to beat Rafa in R1 - well, you never know ...)

The maximum swing from any one match is 0.36 for Querrey (AM favour) v Recouderc (BT favour) and for Kendrick (AM favour) v Brzezicki (BT favour), while there are no less than 18 matches where every single one of us agrees - no doubt quite a few of those will be upsets then! wink

All of the above swing info is automated now, but only for R1. Later rounds still have to be done using 'what ifs' on the master sheet, so I might not be posting swing data for R2! bleh


-- Edited by steven at 02:07, 2007-05-28

__________________

GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html
johnnylad


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Wow! That must have taken so much work!

Just make sure Sheddie isn't both DavidC's trying to find 2 ways of winning! laughing.gif

Only joking, I know he wouldn't do that! biggrin.gif

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steven


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johnnylad wrote:

Wow! That must have taken so much work!

You probably think I typed all that in. LOL wink Don't worry, that may be the longest post (or double post) but it was also the easiest!

Bethan pastes in all the BT entry sheets before all the AM entry sheets, so the formula to work out how many BTs picked Fed to win simply sums the 1s in cells D13 across all the BT sheets, then does the same for the AM sheets. Then there is a formula to divide those numbers by the number of entrants from each team to get the %s.

A last set of formulae subtract the AM % from the BT % to get the potential swing, with the sign determining who the swing is to, then I put all the text together using an Excel concatenation formula, so none of the text in the those two swing analysis posts needed to by typed.

The formulae look quite complicated (though they aren't really) but they're the same for everyone, so can be done for Fed then copied down to the other 127 players.

The problem with automating this for the later rounds is that you can't just sum the 1s because you could have 50% of people picking the first-named player in a R2 match to win it, but unless the first-named player in the match was picked to get through R1 by 100% (or had a bye), you don't know how many of the 50% picked that player to win R2 and how many picked the player he beat in R1 to do it. There is a way to use formulae to do this, but it's not nearly as simple!

__________________

GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html
steven


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For what it's worth:


AndyMurray.com lead BritishTennis.net by an average of 3.92-3.68 points per team member after 4 matches.

The only entrant not to get 1 point today was King Kong - only half of the gorillas went for the Undertaker, obviously.

Up to date detailed results are at http://www.britishtennis.net/07pickem/2007rg.htm as usual.

All of the remaining 60 R1 matches are scheduled for Tuesday, so it should be an exciting day if it stays dry. Why did it have to wait for a work day to get interesting though? cry



__________________

GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html
steven


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The problem with automating this for the later rounds is that you can't just sum the 1s because you could have 50% of people picking the first-named player in a R2 match to win it, but unless the first-named player in the match was picked to get through R1 by 100% (or had a bye), you don't know how many of the 50% picked that player to win R2 and how many picked the player he beat in R1 to do it. There is a way to use formulae to do this, but it's not nearly as simple!
Forget that, once I've got the new entry system working (see another thread) and all the entries on just one or two sheets, it'll be easy to automate frequency counts for every round. smile



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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html
RobC


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wow - that's the first time I've been 100% after 2 days biggrin.gif

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DavidC


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steven wrote:

We had two entries from DavidC's, both representing BT - the DavidC on this board (i.e. not you) and the DavidC on AM.com (i.e. you), so we changed you to sheddie. I can change you to David Cox if you want (since that's what you were on as when you finished in the top three once)

You didn't get any wrong, he did.

No doubt the AM.commers are already wondering why we've let you enter twice ... the question is, will the other DavidC let us use his full surname too, just to avoid confusion?

biggrin



-- Edited by steven at 20:58, 2007-05-27



Sorry for the delay in reply - I'm only on the Internet for a few minutes most days. Not the first time I have had to be differentiated from someone else with the same or similar name! Use David Carter by all means.

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steven


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Thanks David smile - you wouldn't want to get mistaken for the other one and end up in a shed, would you. wink

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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html
RobC


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Wow. Only Acasuso letting me down so far today: If Monaco can pull off a 5- setter, then hopefully it won't be too bad a problem.


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RobC


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Now 8/10 today (Guccione messed up for me - but Robredo shoudl see him off in R2.)

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imoen


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I'm so glad Monaco managed to turn it around. I have him going really deep (quarters or semis, can't remember which) so was getting slightly worried there!

after 14 matches.

AndyMurray.com lead BritishTennis.net by an average of 11.25-10.95 points per team member after 14 matches.

POS. PLAYER    TEAM   TODAY    TOTAL    %
     1Granny              AM     10    14100.0%
     2Count Zero          BT      9    1392.9%
     2AllyB               AM      9    1392.9%
     4Speedy Hawk         AM      8    1285.7%
     4Rob C               BT      8    1285.7%
     4Carrie              AM      8    1285.7%
     4nicki               AM      8    1285.7%
     4Johnnylad           BT      8    1285.7%
     4Shaun7879           AM      8    1285.7%
     4Blodwyn             AM      8    1285.7%
     4RoastLamb           AM      8    1285.7%
     4Josh               BT      8    1285.7%
     4Mkkreuk             BT      8    1285.7%
     4David Cox           BT      8    1285.7%
     4cazza99             AM      8    1285.7%
     4Ewan Mansley        AM      8    1285.7%
     4Spraggz             AM      9    1285.7%
     4goldfish            BT      8    1285.7%

Count's making a habit of beating Sheddie. Would anyone like to make any bets regarding sleeping arrangements? wink.gif

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steven


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Ah, you're back smile.gif - we managed to post the same thing (even down to the number of people we included in the individual list), one on each board, within seconds of each other - what teamwork! (or inspired lack of communication, I'm not sure! LOL)

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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!

GB top 25s (ranks, whereabouts) & stats - http://www.britishtennis.net/stats.html
imoen


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excellent teamwork I think. There's no lack of communication. wink.gif

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To look at a thing is quite different from seeing a thing and one does not see anything until one sees its beauty


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Count Zero


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clap.gif me clap.gif

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Count Zero - Creator of the Statistical Tennis Extrapolation & Verification ENtity or, as we like to call him, that steven.


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