The following table shows how many of our team (BT:) picked each player to win their R1 (bottom half of the draw) match and how many of their team (AM:) did, so that we can see what are the crunch matches for the team comp.

Winners in bold.

Btw no, I didn't count them all LOL - it's one advantage of having all the data in a single Excel file!

= 5+ swing to us (BT)
= 1+ swing to us (BT)
= no effect on the team competition
= 1+ swing to them (AM)
= 5+ swing to them (AM)
  
BT: 23 /  AM: 20  for  (WC) Thomas Johansson - swing of 3 for BT
BT: 2 /  AM: 5  for  Alberto Martin
  
BT: 5 /  AM: 1  for  Kristof Vliegen
BT: 20 /  AM: 24  for  Paul-Henri Mathieu - swing of 4 for AM
  
BT: 13 /  AM: 25  for  (WC) Gustavo Kuerten
BT: 12 /  AM: 0  for  (Q) Raemon Sluiter - swing of 12 for BT
  
BT: 22 /  AM: 17  for  Paul Goldstein - swing of 5 for BT
BT: 3 /  AM: 8  for  (WC) Ryan Sweeting
  
BT: 16 /  AM: 18  for  Juan Monaco - swing of 2 for AM
BT: 9 /  AM: 7  for  (Q) Robin Haase
  
BT: 0 /  AM: 1  for  (Q) Simone Bolelli - swing of 1 for AM
BT: 25 /  AM: 24  for  Gael Monfils
  
BT: 12 /  AM: 22  for  Paradorn Srichaphan
BT: 13 /  AM: 3  for  Luis Horna - swing of 10 for BT
  
BT: 2 /  AM: 3  for  Martin Vassallo Arguello - swing of 1 for AM
BT: 23 /  AM: 22  for  Hyung-Taik Lee
  
BT: 10 /  AM: 9  for  (Q) Chris Guccione
BT: 15 /  AM: 16  for  Florent Serra - swing of 1 for AM
  
BT: 12 /  AM: 21  for  Nicolas Massu
BT: 13 /  AM: 4  for  (Q) Feliciano Lopez - a swing of 9 for BT 
  
BT: 13 /  AM: 20  for  Stefan Koubek
BT: 12 /  AM: 5  for  Michael Llodra - a swing of 7 for BT
  
BT: 22 /  AM: 21  for  Max Mirnyi
BT: 3 /  AM: 4  for  Daniele Bracciali - swing of 1 for AM
  
BT: 8 /  AM: 16  for  Jan Hajek
BT: 17 /  AM: 9  for  (Q) Teimuraz Gabashvili - swing of 8 for BT
  
BT: 20 /  AM: 15  for  Juan Martin del Potro - swing of 5 for BT
BT: 5 /  AM: 10  for  Jonas Bjorkman
  
BT: 17 /  AM: 7  for  (Q) Ivo Karlovic
BT: 8 /  AM: 18  for  Guillermo Garcia-Lopez - swing of 10 for AM
  
BT: 25 /  AM: 25  for  Jan Hernych
BT: 0 /  AM: 0  for  (Q) Ricardo Mello - everybody on both teams got it wrong!

We've won similar numbers of matches, but AM seem to win the ones where there is not much difference of opinion (all but one of the matches where opinions differed by less than 5) and BT seem to win the ones where there is a big difference of opinion (all but one of the matches where the opinions differed by 5 or more)

It's very clear looking at the numbers above that there are quite a lot of AM team members who go for the players most people have heard of (Srichaphan, Kuerten, Henman, etc), whereas those of us on BT are more likely to know how good people like Sluiter and 'bash are at causing upsets. That's the way round you'd expect when you have a site that concentrates mainly one one player playing against a site that concentrates on lots of players, so no big surprise there.

What it does mean is that the matches involving 'name' players who aren't near the top of the rankings any more are crunch matches for the team contest. For example:

AM went for Tigger 18-7, we made it almost equal at 13-12 - a 5 point swing to us if Canas wins, a 5 point swing to them if Tigger does (I'll still be cheering for him though!)

AM went for Gaudio 19-6, we went for R-H 14-11 - an 8 point swing to one team there.

AM went for C Rochus 16-9, we went for Santoro 21-4, a massive 12 point swing at stake there. I wonder if some of the AMs thought it was O Rochus. I'll look silly saying that if Christophe wins, of course!

AM went for Kuerten 25-0, 12 of us thought Sluiter would beat him - probably the Boggo fans with their unhappy memories!  A 12-point swing to us.

Also Srichaphan's loss and 'bash's win follow this pattern, and I wonder if the swing in the Kuznetsov match has something to do with the similarity of the name to Kuznetsova ...

Going against my tinpot 'theory' though - AM went for Garcia-Lopez 18-7, while we went for Karlovic 17-8 - that one is harder to explain since I'd say Karlovic is more well-known. They got it right too!

It's pretty clear that if the golden oldies (Tigger, Guga, etc) have a good run, AM might wipe the floor with us. Funny that they're relying on the older players, given that the average age there is thought to be lower than it is here.

-- Edited by steven at 04:00, 2007-03-22

-- Edited by steven at 00:20, 2007-03-23