Just a reminder that ALL the clay court Masters Series Events this year have changed from a 64 field to a 56 field. This means that the top 8 seeds get a first round bye.

So if Andy can somehow reach the final this week, and either Ljubi or Nole lose their quarter final then Andy will make the top 8 and theoretically make it far easier for himself to go deep in the clay court events coming up.

It's possible but I think Roddick and Blake will have less excuse to miss Monte Carlo this year after playing Houston, because of their bye meaning they won't start until Wednesday.

Andy moves up to 2nd in the race (albeit temporarily as either Nadal or Djokovic will overtake him tonight).

If Andy loses in the semi final (212 points), Ljubi would need to win Miami to overtake, as would Chela, so worst position 4th, best 3rd.

If Andy reaches the final (237 points) he will be guaranteed 2nd at the end of the week.

If Andy wins Miami he will reach 267 points, only 9 points behind Federer.

-- Edited by GC77 at 23:47, 2007-03-28

scoobsuk wrote:

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ARGH this is frustrating.

It will come, I know - but it's frustrating that it's not coming now when he's clearly better this year than some of those who are sat on accumulated points from last year....

-- Edited by scoobsuk at 18:40, 2007-03-28

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It will come scoobs, it will come, ... those who are sitting on accumulated points will have to defend them, and some of them already aren't doing that very well. 

 

andyjmr wrote:

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scoobsuk wrote:ARGH this is frustrating.It will come, I know - but it's frustrating that it's not coming now when he's clearly better this year than some of those who are sat on accumulated points from last year.... -- Edited by scoobsuk at 18:40, 2007-03-28It will come scoobs, it will come, ... those who are sitting on accumulated points will have to defend them, and some of them already aren't doing that very well.

 

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 I know, I know - it's just - in one respect Andy is incredible unfortunate and a victim of current circumstances.  I got interested so I went and did some research into this.  

If Andy lost in the SF he would have 2125 points I think on Monday next.  #10 will be Haas on 2135.

I went back through the weekly rankings until the beginning of 05 and until this week, a ranking of more than 2060 points was enough to get you into the top 10.  Hell, at one point around April last year, 1600 points was enough to be #10 in the world (Agassi).  Looking more broadly, around 1700-2000 was generally plenty good enough to be top 10 at most points over the last 2 years +.  I predict if I went back further that would continue to be the same.

The problem seems to be that, while #1 and #2 are dominant in their positions, we no longer have dominant #3 and #4 players who are quite some distance ahead of the rest of the top 10.  The gap between 3 and 10 is less than 1000 points right now.  Just prior to USO 05 the gap between 3 and 10 was 1500+ points, prior to the French in 06 it was 1300 points and prior to the USO 06 it was about the same.

As the #3 and #4 positions have become less dominant, so the points they would have had, had they been more dominant, have tended to diffuse down to the rest of the top 10. Also I suspect the lower echelons of the top 10 have done better at defending their own positions generally.

All this has had the unfortunate effect of raising the bar on entry to the top 10 to its highest level in a long time.

The upside to this is, once you're in, there's fairly small gaps between 7-10, and then 3-6 so there's opportunity to jump further in without needing to gain huge amounts of points.  The major hump is getting close to #2 - Nadal is still comfortably in front of Roddick by quite some way.

scoobsuk wrote:

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I've become a ranking geek.

Oh dear.

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We knew we'd assimilate you eventually.  Resistence is futile!

Welcome to the Borg!