Aside from general concern about Andy's form ( and some discussion as to the extent of that concern has taken place in the Monte Carlo thread ), purely addressing the #1 outlook, by ( Novak ) default Andy continues to have a huge points lead as WR 1. That guaranteed position, almost whatever he does or doesn't do, keeps extending and will now certainly last until Queens, and much more realistically now until at least Wimbledon ( he would need to stretch that out until the 7th August rankings to match #14 Nastase's 40 weeks in total as WR 1 ).

Just imagine how far ahead Andy might be now if he'd had any sort of first few months of the year comparative to expectations. Ah well ...

As to the year as a whole, how much the big race lead Fed and Rafa have taken over Andy and Novak will ultimately count, is a tale still to unfold and will anyone else enter the equation ? ...

As I said in the MC thread I can see a historically low total for the year end #1 though if Fed just keeps winning when he appears ...

 

Post Monte Carlo ranking points :

1. Murray 11690

2. Djokovic 8085

3. Wawrinka 5695

4. Federer 5125

Mats Wilander Sweden 20
Andy Murray 29 (currently)
Ilie Nastase Romania 40 (Monday 7th August) - Montreal Masters 1000
Gustavo Kuerten Brazil 43 (28th August) - Week after Cincinnati Masters
Jim Courier US 58 (11th December)
Stefan Edberg Sweden 72
Lleyton Hewitt Australia 80

He only has 600 points to defend from Cincinnati, did he not play Montreal/Toronto last year? If he can hold on to no1. through Wimbledon he should have a good chance of getting passed Kuerten.

In the post R-G 12/06/17 rankings we have :

1. A Murray 9890
2. R Nadal 7285
3. S Wawrinka 6175
4. N Djokovic 5805
5. R Federer 4945

So Novak's relative woes have caught up with him in the rankings as Rafa in particular continues to surge. When might Andy's?

Taking off remaining 2016 grass points to get the guaranteed minimum points players will have going into Wimbledon, Andy still leads just, so Rafa would need to make up the difference at Queens to be the 'in running' #1 at the start of Wimbledon. Stan could also overtake Andy during Wimbledon, as for now could Novak.

1. A Murray 9890 - ( 500 + 2000 ) = 7390
2. R Nadal 7285 - 0 = 7285
3. S Wawrinka 6175 - 45 = 6130
4. N Djokovic 5805 - 90 = 5715
5. R Federer 4945 - ( 180 + 720 ) = 4045

So decent chance of Andy still being WR 1 after Wimbledon since now playing a bit better he must be reasonably confident of doing at least as well as Rafa on Wimbledon's grass, terrific as Rafa's clay form was. Plus Stan and Novak are probably too far back and Roger certainly is too far back.

An Andy vs Rafa Wimbledon final for the title and #1 ranking spot could be fun. Fed in particular may have other ideas on that one.

With Stan losing has reduced the permutations for No.1. after Wimbledon.

I believe the following is true:

Andy will stay no.1 if he matches Rafa and if Novak wins reaches the quarters. (If Novak does not win only has to match Rafa)

Rafa will be no. 1 if he does better than Andy and if Novak wins Rafa reaches the quarters.

Novak will be no.1 if he wins and neither Andy or Rafa make the quarters.

 

So if I understand things correctly, if Andy beats Querrey in his QF, he is guaranteed to stay Nº1 post Wimbledon.

If Andy is still WR 1 after Wimbledon that's 37 weeks.

He then has nothing to defend until his Cincinnati RU points come off on 21/08. If he's still WR 1 on 14/08 he moves ahead of Nastase - #14 on the list with 40 weeks.

If he can get to the start of the US Open still #1 then he will move ahead of #13 Kuerten 43 weeks ( Andy would clock up 44 weeks at the midpoint of the US Open ).

Next up at #12 is Courier 58 weeks, so basically would in this run need over a whole year at #1, effectively win the race again, but he is still only #7 in the live race just now and we know that after the US Open ( defends 360 points there ) his points defences get very silly.

So up to #13 in accumulated weeks looks the best hope in this run.

Don't know who that was. Anyway I predicted Nadal. It can be fun to be wrong At least he got further than Ka Pliskova !