Well the obvious difference is that Andy can play virtually any kind of game he wants to whereas, as Fed says, Rafa is relatively one-dimensional, even if he is astoundingly good in that one dimension!

The key is that Andy has to be on top form (obviously), serve like he did today, not make needless errors and make sure he doesn't get blasted off the court early on. If he can do all that, which is a tall order, for sure, I don't see why he shouldn't give Rafa a lot of problems.

i think being the heavy underdog will help andy a lot and i just have a gut feeling that he is going to produce a stunning result, not just in terms of result but also scoreline. all results are possible in this matchup but im gonna go out on a limb and say andy in 3 - he just looks so comfortable in the night sessions.

-- Edited by mkkreuk at 14:15, 2007-01-20

RobC wrote:

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I've added a poll.

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'red bull'......dont u mean 'highland spring'...Andy to win in 5 (8-6) !

Is it me, or has Andy's draw been a nice one in Ao terms, but would have been hell on earth had it been RGarros? He's had a succession of opponents best on clay...

 I went Nadal in 4. I hope to be wrong- given Andy is usually at his best with extreme challenges, and Nadal isn't at peak form right now, Andy could well do it....

Happycynic wrote:

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Is it me, or has Andy's draw been a nice one in Ao terms, but would have been hell on earth had it been RGarros? He's had a succession of opponents best on clay...

I went Nadal in 4. I hope to be wrong- given Andy is usually at his best with extreme challenges, and Nadal isn't at peak form right now, Andy could well do it....

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 A draw against pretty much anyone at RG is toughm where s Andy has a chance of beating anyone at AO and US and against most people at Wimby.

Going with my head I voted for Rafa in 4. I just think he's too consistant for Andy. I think it will be close, a lot of games in danger of getting broken and he'll need to serve really well but he does have a chance. I'm not worried about Nadal's power - Andy has beaten guys who hit the ball harder, it's his consistancy that is worrying.

I'm really looking forward to it regardless though. He's reached his seeded position in very impressive fashion and I love to see him match up against top players and I hope he gives a good account of himself win or lose.

The players that have beaten Nadal over the last year or so seem to be those that attack relentlessly, predominantly using their forehand. James Blake (3-0) has overpowered Nadal, as did Youzhny (2-3) at the US Open, Berdych (3-1) has dominated their recent encounters. Noticeably, on the day these players have served well, saving break points and keeping their first serve percentage close to Nadal's level. Even the likes of Horna and Mattieu have threatened to beat Nadal until their level dropped allowing him to come through to win in 4 sets.

Unfortunately, Andy's style of tennis tends to be far more patient, making use of changes of pace and spin to induce errors from his opponents. He gets a lot of balls back in play rather than looking to dominate on the return, his backhand, especially down the line, is his outstanding shot, while his forehand rarely looks anything better than a top 50 shot, the looping forehands that tempt some players into going for too much, simply haven't worked against the likes of Davydenko, Clement and others prepared to go for a forcing shot that moves Andy around the court rather than the outright winner. Attempting to draw opponents into the net so they can be passed is a nice idea in theory but in reality many of Andy's passing shots have been hit from positions so deep, so unfavourable, that even a modest volley can turn out to be a winner.

So everything appeared to be in Nadal's favour. He's clearly much the fitter player, he makes few errors, he rarely goes for anything overly ambitious and his first serve percentage is consistently high. And then Andy beats Chela playing aggressive, imaginative, attacking tennis, dominating the points with his forehand, coming into the net to put away volleys; adopting exactly the style of play that seems to trouble Nadal. Interesting.

I expect Nadal will win but it could be a fascinating match.