Andy's competitors Weeks 3 and 4: Aussie Open

RobC · All-time great

RE: Andy's competitors Weeks 3 and 4: Aussie Open

RobC · All-time great

Gonzalez 6-2 6-2 5-7 2*-3 Hewitt

Tonight, Ferrer and Gasquet can both overtake again Ferrer plays Fish. Gasquet plays Robredo.

Can Djokovic beat Federer?????? If not, then Ferrer and Gasuet can overtake him as well - as can Andy if he beats Nadal.

Berdych and Tursunov finally get to play their R3 match tonight as well. If Berdych loses, then Andy can also overtake him if he beats Nadal.

Haas plays remote Tim threat Mayer. If we're hoping that Andy can make the semis, then we'd want him to lose tonight, so that Andy can overtake him as well.

A finalist Andy would want Ancic and Gonzo out tonight or on Tuesday to be able to get to WR8.

-- Edited by RobC at 12:52, 2007-01-20

RobC · All-time great

Hewitt's out. So there's now just four players left who can overtake Andy

Bethan, What're the permutations now?

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

New permutations:

What if...

Andy wins the Australian Open: He will have 2505points and a hangover (I'm just guessing on the second one). He will definitely overtake Ljubicic. He could overtake, Robredo(out before: qf), Roddick(out before: qf), Gonzalez(out before:f), Ancic(out before: f), Nalbandian(out before: f), Haas(wins ), Berdych(wins) and Djokovic(wins).
The last three are impossible because Andy just won and Roddick/Ancic meet before the qf; finally Gonzalez/Nalby meet Andy before the f.
Worst case: 7(+9)
Best case: 7(+9)

Andy reaches the final of the Australian Open: He will have 2200points. He could overtake Gonzalez(out before: qf), Ancic(out before: sf), Nalbandian(out before: sf), Haas(out before: sf), Berdych(out before: f) and Djokovic(out before: f). He could be overtaken by Ferrer(wins), Gasquet(wins).
Worst case: 11(+5)
Best case: 8(+8)

Andy reaches the semifinals of the Australian Open:He will have 1950 points. He could overtake, Haas(out before:qf), Berdych(out before:sf) and Djokovic(out before:sf). He could be overtaken by Ferrer(reach: final), Gasquet(reach: final), Tursunov(wins).
Worst case: 13(+3)
Best case: 11(+5)

Andy reaches the quarter finals of the Australian Open: He will have 1750 points. He could overtake, Berdych(out before: rd4) and Djokovic(out before: qf).
He could be overtaken by Ferrer(reach: sf), Gasquet(reach: sf), Tursunov(reach:final), Fish(wins).
Worst case: 15(+1)
Best case: 13(+3)

Andy reaches the fourth round of the Australian Open: He would have 1655 points. He couldn’t overtake anyone.
He could be overtaken by Ferrer(reach:qf), Gasquet(reach:qf), Tursunov(reach:final), Fish(wins).
Worst case: 15 (+1)
Best case: 14(+2)

So now you know who needs a few pins in their model. Don't forget to save the sharpest for Nadal though!

-- Edited by imoen at 18:08, 2007-01-21

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

I'll re-use the one I used on Hewitt. That seems to be a good sharp one

RobC · All-time great

Sunday Morning Update:

Ferrer's out so that's one place Andy won't be dropping this morning! Ancic's also out: good if andy makes the final.

Gasquet's 2 sets down to Robredo but ahead in the third

Berdych and Haas beat Tursunov and Mayer, so Andy will have to advance further to overtake them.

Roddick advances past Robredo again (hopefully temporarily).

The matches to watch are:

Federer 0*-0 Djokovic
Robredo 6-4 6-2 2*-5 Gasquet

Salmon · Tennis legend

Gasquet lost.

-- Edited by Arka at 09:45, 2007-01-21

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

Fed does the biz and pegs Nole back to just 25 points ahead of Andy.

Now, if only Andy can beat Rafa . . .

nads · Junior player

Gasquet & Djoko gone: the 2 biggest threats.

Now if he goes out, he won't have lost places compared to the people immediately around him, which is great. Won't have gained any either.
However, should he beat Nadal...

RobC · All-time great

Table updated. Andy secure at WR14: his highest ever ranking unless Mardy Fish wins the Aussie Open. That's 2 places up on his ranking at the start of the week!

Madeline · Admin:Moderator + Tennis Legend

If Mardy Fish wins this tournament, I will eat the hard hat Drew found for me a while ago.

(shivers in case the shedman curse falls on me. Shedman, are you out of that shed yet? Have you got enough light in there for doing your revision?)

imoen · Admin: Moderator+Tennis Legend

I've edited the permutations post above. Worst case for Andy is now 15th in the world, equaling his best ever. Best case, is winning the Aussie Open (obviously) and getting into the top 10 at number 7.

Come on Andy beat Nadal tomorrow and keep this thread alive.

Josh · Challenger level

Does anyone know what doubles rank Jamie and Auckland are at now, roughly???

Salmon · Tennis legend

Approximately 70 and 76.
Auckland may play doubles in Wrexham/Heilbronn or even Durban this week. Jamie is in Europe by now, but he posted on Andy's site that he isn't playing before Zagreb.

RobC · All-time great

So Tonight's targets are: Nadal (of course), and if we've any negative energy left, please direct it at Berdych (playing Davydenko) and Haas (playing Nalby).

In the fourth match, we need to decide whether Blake or Gonzalez is the preferred opponent - Andy will be good at beating Spanish speakers, so I reckon let's go for Blake, so Andy can play Gonzo.