Who do we reckon will be the next player to make a big breakthrough, into the top 400 and start doing well in futures in a regular basis ?
Morgan Phillips looks the most likely at the moment, he's come on loads in the past year. It'd be interesting to see him play, I think there's one futures event in Italy which has a live stream, hopefully he'll enter that.
After that, maybe Slabba. He tends to beat most players ranked outside the top 500 fairly comfortably, I think that a true reflection of his current playing strength is a ranking of about 500. Hopefully it won't be long before he gets there. To go further, it sounds like he needs to work on a few aspects of his game, come into the net more to finish off points and work on his backhand. Last year, there were several tournaments when he didn't take advantage of good draws and could have made the quarters of further.
Apart from those two; Bamford's been around the 600 mark for a while doesn't seem like he'll go much higher and he's focusing more on doubles now, Childs doesn't hit it as hard as he used to and is struggling to hurt opponents, Flanagan has two or 3 great weeks per year but apart from that he doesn't do much, like Childs - Kennaugh doesn't have enough in his game to trouble opponents, Ward still has much to prove - he had some great runs last autumn can he start doing that more regularly.
I think the others most likely to make a breakthrough are Kasiri (I'm very interested to see how he does this year), Rushby and Eaton. Maybe Cox in 2008.
USM, I agree with you on that one. Morgan seems the one who is most likely to do it first.
He won a Futures when he was ranked outside the top 750 and that isn't very common. That really shows that he is capable of tennis of a much higher standard. It will be interesting to see if he goes for Challenger qualies once again or not. He did very well to qualify in Rimini (a 50K) last year and if he takes his ranking into the top 500, he'll start getting seeded for them.
I don't see anyone else other than Childs and Morgan doing it this year. Slabba may need to wait till early 2008. He seems to have the potential, but he really needs to win back to back matches like he did this week. One advantage of having a rubbish year is that you don't defend much next time, so you never know, he may surprise us all by doing it this year itself.
The thing about Morgan Phillips is that he's doing it the hard way, Futures-wise, playing in Spain mostly where Futures are very tough.
I had a look at the rankings in detail at one point last year and noticed that there were less Spaniards than Brits in the 200-350 range. What this suggests to me is that those tough Spanish Futures (even the 10Ks tend to be strong) are a much better preparation for playing at Challenger level than, say, the Futures in the UK.
Thus, when the Spanish players get up to Challenger level, it's not nearly so much of a shock and they tend to start doing well in them right away, which is the only plausible explanation for them not sticking around in the 200-350 range for long, unlike our players.
So, I'm reasonably confident that Morgan being ranked around 600 based on Futures in southern Europe is equivalent to someone who plays GB Futures all the time being ranked about 400 and if he continues to improve, he should be capable of holding his own at Challenger level before too long.
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