I will ring regularly tomorrow for score and results updates.
On paper Grambow looks like a really good draw for Alex but it's actually a very tricky match. The German is ranked lower, at 685 but he is a really big server and is quite a heavy hitter from the baseline so he's very effective indoors and the Sunderland courts are very fast. Last week in Redbridge, Grambow reached the quarters - knocking out Italian clay-courter Giancarlo Pezzualo and then Swedish big server Michael Ryderstedt [who had beaten Huta-Galung in rd2], before losing to Gregorc in 3. Alex will have to return well and make sure that he stays aggressive so that he is getting the first strike in the rallies otherwise Grambow has the power to blow him off the court.
Alex has had a couple of matches recently when he hasn't played his best until he's been 5-1 down in a set when, with all hope of winning the set virtually gone, he's relaxed and started to go for his shots with success. Against Guez last week, at 5-1 down in the 2nd Alex relaxed and started to completely outhit the Frenchman. He got it back to 5-4 and came within a point of making it 5-5 but Guez hung on. The key for Alex is that he stays relaxed from the start and so plays his best from the opening game, not when he's on the brink of defeat.
I think Mackin has a decent draw, he's avoided danger-men like Huta-Galung, Knittel, Rydertstedt in his half. I can't see him being particularly troubled until the semis, the 7th seed Piccari is a clay-courter, I reckon Gregorc will reach the quarters but Mackin can beat him. Cox and Searle have both come extremely close against him. Irwin shouldn't be too much of a problem, Mackin beat him 6-2, 6-1 earlier this year.
Rushby and Illingworth both lost in the final qualifying round but both have had the good fortune to get lucky loser places and they face each other in rd1 ! My money's on Rushby, Illingworth got hammered in the final qualies round by Grambow.
I don't fancy the chances of Bamford and May against Knittel and Ryderstedt respectively in rd1. Ryderstedt beat Huta-Galung last week and after beating Mackin; Knittel lost in 3 sets to Golubev in the semis.
Ross Hutchins is drawn against qualifier Ervin Eleskovic. They've played once before, back in 2004 and Eleskovic won 6-1, 4-6, 6-2. The Swede made the Redbridge quarters last week before losing in 3 to top seed Guez. He's also won a futures in Sweden recently and took a set off Joachim Johansson.
Ed Corrie's form in Australia has been deservedly rewarded with a wildcard. Conor Niland is a reasonable rd1 draw, ranking-wise but form-wise probably not so. Niland made the final of the 15K in Edinburgh a few weeks ago, losing to Bloomfield. Last week he lost to Knittel in rd1.
Patrick Eichenberger is one of the best rd1 draws Dan Evans could have got. Slabba says that Eichenberger is a great retriever, he gets so many balls back and that'll really test Dan's concentration. Eichenberger also has really good touch at the net, it took Alex a while to start creating chances on his serve.
I believe Alex's ranking will go down to about 794 next Monday as his 20 points from the 2005 sat drop off. It was a tough match, Grambow has such a big game, served Alex off the court from the looks of things. Wouldn't be surprised if he makes upsets Recouderc and makes the quarters here, the courts are so fast.
Alex now heads to Shrewsbury for challenger qualies and then to Israel I believe. I think it might actually be a good idea to head straight to Israel and play the futures there next week and skip Shrewsbury. Alex isn't going to get a wildcard for the challenger and qualies will be pretty strong. In Israel, he'd have to qualify next week [as he hasn't entered] but his chances of winning some points would be a lot greater as the fields are so weak.
ultimateshedman wrote: I believe Alex's ranking will go down to about 794 next Monday as his 20 points from the 2005 sat drop off.
Alex has 36 points at the moment, 1 to add from Redbridge, 20 to subtract from last year's Sat makes 17. At the moment, 17 points off 13 scoring tournaments is about 807th/808th.
Good to see that he's doing something about it by heading off to Israel, but a pity he couldn't do a bit more the last few weeks. Indeed, he hasn't won back to back matches in even Futures main draws since June. However, today's thrashing aside, he does seem to have been doing a bit better the last couple of weeks.
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!
I should know better than to question steven over ranking calculations
I was hoping that Alex would go abroad sooner, the 15Ks in Britain have such tough fields now. When you compare them to the fields of the GB 4 satellite last year, there's such a difference. Players ranked in the 1000s were making the quarters last year, while with the 15Ks this autumn, the cuts are around 420 !
Unfortunately it wasn't possible financially, but that's why he's struggled to get many points this autumn, the fields are so strong and he's had a lot of tough draws - Cervenak, Baker etc.
Hopefully he can get back into the top 700 by the end of the year with tournaments in Israel and India to come and they should be quite weak.
ultimateshedman wrote: I was hoping that Alex would go abroad sooner, the 15Ks in Britain have such tough fields now. When you compare them to the fields of the GB 4 satellite last year, there's such a difference. Players ranked in the 1000s were making the quarters last year, while with the 15Ks this autumn, the cuts are around 420 !
That's a good point, actually. I assume putting the GB Futures up from 10Ks to 15Ks was supposed to let the Brits play in home Futures with more points on offer, but I think that rather than the Brits getting more points, it's actually resulted in stronger overseas players being attracted to the tournaments.
It does seem crazy that in this week's GB Future, there was only one British player ranked high enough to get into the main draw directly. That's partly because it's a 15K and not a 10K, partly because a lot of the Brits in the top 400 are going for Challengers and Challenger qualifying at the moment (good if it means they're getting more ambitious, bad if it's because they don't see themselves doing well in GB Futures!) and partly because of the 35% drop in Brits in the top 500 (once Matt Smith drops out at the end of this week) since just over a year ago, definitely a bad thing!
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GB on a shirt, Davis Cup still gleaming, 79 years of hurt, never stopped us dreaming ... 29/11/2015 that dream came true!