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RobC


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greg and Boggo's competitors week 38
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Here's division 2. As ever, please let me know if you spot any anomalies


Running|--------Start of week----------|Running So 18th   Def1  19th
Rank  rank        name           points Points Far Result       Result
125   124   Flavio Saretta          360   360  out    5           4
126   107   Ramon Delgardo          397   352  out    8     50    5
127   127   Simone Bolelli          343   349 9s-out  3           1
128   130   Lukasz Kubot            334   346 21s-out 4      9    3
129   132   Gorka Fraile            328   345 22b-out 5           5
130   128   Jiri Novak              341   341   out   1           0
131   129   Yeu-Tzuoo Wang          338   338   out   8           6
132   133   Amer Delic              314   324 22l-out 5     12    5
133   131   Ilia Bozoljac           333   322   out   4     12    1
134   159   Sam Querrey             272   319  50l    3           1
135   134   Ivo Minar               314   318 9s-out  5           5
136   141   Robert Kendrick         304   315 12l-out 1           1
137   135   Yen-Hsun Lu             314   314   out   5           5
138   136   Greg Rusedski           310   310   out   5           5
139   137   Alexander Peya          308   308   out   1           0
140   138   Ricardo Mello           308   308   out   5           5
141   140   Paul Capdeville         306   306   out   5           4
142   139   Werner Eschauer         308   304 1b-out  3      5    1
143   144   Tomas Zib               299   303 9s-out  5           5
144   142   Andre Agassi            300   300   out   0           0
145   143   Michael Berrer          300   300   out   5           5
146   145   Diego Hartfield         299   299   out   1           1
147   147   Andreas Vinciguerra     298   298   out   0           0
148   146   Alex Bogdanovic         299   295   out   4      5    1
149   148   Ivan Navarro Pastor     293   293 1t-out  1           1
150   151   Federico Luzzi          284   292 12b-out 4           1
151   149   George Bastl            291   291   out   5           3
152   150   Michael Llodra          291   291   out   5           1
153   155   Michael Russell         278   289 12l-out 1           1
154   156   Oscar Hernandez         278   287 14t-out 5           5
155   153   Peter Luczak            279   279   out   1           1
156   154   Jerome Haehnel          278   278   out   1           1
157   161   Juan Antonio Marin      269   278 14t-out 5           5
158   152   Tomas Cakl              283   272  out    1     12    1
159   162   Mathieu Montcourt       267   267   out   1           1
160   163   Frederico Gil           262   262   out   1           1

Szczecin(s)    90   63   40   21    9    1(3)
Tarragona(t)   60   42   27   14    6    1(3)
Lubbock(l)     50   35   22   12    5    1(2)
Banja Luka(b)  50   35   22   12    5    1(2)


 


 Players in italics gained ranking places on Sunday.
Underlined players were knocked out on Saturday.


 


-- Edited by RobC at 14:10, 2006-09-18
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-- Edited by RobC at 07:39, 2006-09-25

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RobC


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The table's up. Boggo loses a place, as he's defending 5 points from Lubbock last year.


Other losers are: Delic who drops below Greg again, Kubot, Bozljac, Eschauer, Querrey and Montcourt.


Lots of threats this week - especially as there's so many points on offer in Poland.


- strange that Boggo didn't decide to defend his Lubbock points - maybe he was expecting the Davis cup call -up??


Over to Imoen, to describe the threat!


 



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Count Zero


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RobC wrote:


- strange that Boggo didn't decide to defend his Lubbock points - maybe he was expecting the Davis cup call -up??


 



 


i doubt it


he was ment ot play poland but has obviusdly decided he is betetr off getting some more traning/practice in rather than swithcing to clay.



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imoen


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Ok. Threats this week, in order of danger:


To Greg alone (ie already above Alex), Delic, Eschauer, Kendrick and Zib.


to both our guys: Navarro Pastor, Luzzi, Russell, Hernandez, Cakl, Querry, Marin and Sabau.


to just Boggo: Dorsch, Morrison, Reynolds.


then my table ends so there may be more. So really it's not looking very good. However, hopefully Alex can qualify for ATP Mumbai next week and get back any places he loses this week.


Once round 1 is completed I'll do the best/worst case thing looking at the draws but at the moment it would take too long to work out all the possibilites with so many left in. So pins in everyone!


Navarro Pastor is the only one who can overtake by winning round 1 so pay especial attention to him, and to Querry whose first round match is against our very own Goodall so it would be good for him to lose!



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RobC


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The results from Szczecin and Tarragona are in, and the table's updated.


No competitors knocked out yet All the casualties I'm tracking were ranked 83- 121.


Hernandez and Bolleli  advance, as does Sabau off the bottom of the table.



-- Edited by RobC at 21:53, 2006-09-18

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Lubbock results added.  double . Querrey beats Josh.


Morisson and Reynolds also win off the bottom.



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RobC


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Table updated.


For a change, Boggo's closest threat, Navarro Pastor, does the decent thing and is knocked out in Tarragona. Cakl  drops out of his tournament.


Otherwise, Kubot, Kendrick, Zib and Russell  advance on the table, Morrison advances off the bottom.


Over to Bethan, to let us know what the chances for Boggo & Greg are now that R1 is over.



-- Edited by RobC at 08:43, 2006-09-20

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imoen


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OK. Here is the promised, detailed analysis.


Before I begin, a disclaimer. My spreadsheet only goes down to the player ranked 165 on Monday so there may be a few more people out there who could spoil the party. I will check to see whether that is the case when it reaches the semis, but in this I assume that no one else will get far enough in their tournament to overtake.


First off, the players between Greg and Boggo (ie threats to Greg only). Kendrick, Delic and Zib.


Kendrick will overtake if he wins his next match, against the swiss Michael Lammer. Kendrick is seeded 1 in his challenger so unfortunately is likely to win.


Delic will also overtake by winning his next round, he takes on Guccione. Delic is the second seed, however he needed three tight sets to win his first round and we know Guccione can be very dangerous.


Zib will overtake if he wins his next match as well. Up next for him is fifth seed Jiri Vanek.


Now threats to both of them:


These I'm going to cover by tournament. Starting with the Lubbock challenger. Playing here are: Russell, Querrey and Morrison. incidently, all American(attach to that whatever you like). Morrison can only overtake Boggo, and that only by winning the tournament. Querrey and Russell must both win to overtake Greg, Querrey must reach the final to overtake Boggo, Russell the semis. Querrey and Russell are set to meet in the quarters so only one of them cacn overtake. So from Lubbock, worst case for Greg, loss of one place. Worst case for Boggo, loss of two places.


Moving on to the Tarragona Challenger now. There are two competitors still in here, Hernadez and Marin. Marin requires a finals place to overtake Boggo and a tournament win to overtake Greg. For Hernandez everything happens a round earlier with a semi seeing him past Alex and a final past Greg. However, they will meet in the semis. So only on of them can overtake both our friends, meaning worst case for Greg loss of one place, worst case for Alex, loss of one place.


Next we return to Europe and the Banja Luka Challenger. Only one competitor is playing here, and that is Luzzi. He must reach the quarters to draw level with Boggo but I am about 95% certain that Boggo has more compulsory points and so will remain ahead. therefore, a semis place would see him past. He must then progress to the final to leap over Greg as well. So from here, worst case for Greg, loss of one place. For Alex, one place.


Finally, the Pekao Open(that's Szczecin to you and me although Pekao is certainly easier to spell). Again, only one competitor, this time in the form of Sabau. He will overtake both greg and Alex in one fell swoop if he reaches the final. So once again, worst case for both is a drop of one place.


In conclusion. The worst case this week for Greg, is a loss of 7 more places to a position of 142 in the rankings come the end of the week. A drop of 6 from last week.


The worst case for Alex, is a loss of 5 more places, and a drop out of the top 150 to 152, a drop of 6 from last week as well. Which would mean that the distance between the two remained the same.


As you can see, a lot of pin work required so if you'll excuse me...



-- Edited by imoen at 22:56, 2006-09-20

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RobC


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Table updated.


Wow Bethan - that's a heap of work!


So..... how has round 2 treated our competitors?


Not so good behind Boggo: Russell, Hernandez, Querrey and Marin all advance. The only ray of sunlight is that Morrison and Sabau were knocked out below the table(which only improves the worst case for Alex by 1).


Russell & Hernandez are now just one game away from overtaking.


Ahead of Boggo, things went much better: Eschauer, Minar and Bolelli all went out, making advancement easier for Alex if he wins a few games next week, while Devilder advanced off the table.


The rest of R2 gets played today. Kendrick & Delic overtake if they win.


 



-- Edited by RobC at 07:53, 2006-09-21

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RobC


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Table updated for today's European matches.


Good news for Greg: Tomas Zib is knocked out in Poland.


Otherwise, Kubot, Luzzi and Portasadvance - Portas off the table.


Now the fun begins: In Lubbock, we need both Kendrick and Delic (number 1 & 2 seeds) to go out tonight. Kendrick plays Michael Lammer, Delic plays Chris Guccione. Both can overtake Greg if they win.


Otherwise, tomorrow's the big day: Luzzi, Russell, Hernandez and Querrey can overtake. Russell & Querrey play each other, so Boggo's bound to drop one place.


 



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RobC


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Table updated for Lubbock matches.


Kendrick and Delic both get past Greg


The only ray of light is that Boggo's old friend Noam Okun beat Reynolds, which reduces the number who can overtake Alex to four.


 



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RobC


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The early European results are in. Table's updated.


Luzzi & Marin are out, and can't overtake Boggo this week.


Fraile & Devilder advance ahead of our boys.


Hernandez  is playing any time now. Concentrate your negative energies on him! If he wins, he overtakes Alex.


Querrey and Russell play each other tonight. One will overtake Alex, and become a threat to Greg.



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RobC


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Good pinwork folks: Hernandez  is out. So Boggo will drop one more place to 148th when one of the two Americans win tonight.


Greg's now looking at dropping a maximum of one more place to  138th if Russell makes the final, or Querrey wins the tournament in Lubbock.


Kubot also went out ahead of Greg



-- Edited by RobC at 21:21, 2006-09-22

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RobC


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RobC wrote:


 Boggo will drop one more place to 148th when one of the two Americans win tonight.






Apologies. Looks like I can't count. Querrey won, and he's still 2 points behind Boggo! so no drop in rankings for Alex Delic also won ahead of Greg.


luckily, there's only 9 people reading this thread, so I'm hopefully among friends.


Meanwhile our Israeli friend() Okun knocks out Kendrick ahead of Greg, and Russell,  Querrey's opponent is also out.


The table's updated. Querrey  is the only threat left. He plays Amer Delic today, overtakes Boggo if he wins, and overtakes Greg if he wins the final..  Go Amer!



-- Edited by RobC at 09:42, 2006-09-23

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imoen


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RobC wrote:

luckily, there's only 9 people reading this thread, so I'm hopefully among friends.


i'm afraid I'm finding it hard to forgive you Rob, especially as I laid it all out for you in that long post, did you even read it? ()


i can't quite believe that Alex can only lose one more place when I was working it all out I thought there was a strong chance he would drop out of the top 150 but I love that i was wrong! Go Delic! (the pins are all in position on the Querrey doll).


i've double checked all the non-table players left in during the semis and no one else can overtake, but El Aynaoui will sneak onto the bottom of the table if he wins in Tarragona.



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