British Tennis Forum - Celebrating 20 Years!

9vicman · Futures qualifying

RE: week 32 - WTA1000 - Cincinnati, USA Hard

B00thy · Club Coach

"a stretch" is being kind I reckon .. it's clearly not realistic. Emma is playing top 20 level .. or maybe a little lower.

It's a good level, as good as she's played before .. with some aspects better than in 2021 but with less freedom, but it ain't "13"

-- Edited by B00thy on Saturday 16th of August 2025 05:24:10 PM

Peter too · Tennis legend

She is still inconsistent, she sometimes plays to level 13 or higher but she also occasionally loses to players ranked below her. However those losses to low ranked players are getting less so her consistency in improving. Players quite often seem to settle at whatever level of tournaments they are playing and then something clicks and they surge up to the next level. We saw it with Sonay last year and with Katie before that, It's Emma's turn. She is regularly getting to R2 or R3 of WTA1000 and Grand Slams, it's time for Emma to surge up the rankings, cutting out those losses to players outside the top 30 and beating more players in the top 10.

indiana · Tennis legend

I do think Emma needs to be more consistent, probably actually rather more with performance level than results against lower ranked players. For tbf who doesn't lose to lower ranked players than themselves? - and Emma has only lost to one player outside the top 60 all year - Bucsa WR 101 when Emma lost to her in Singapore back at the end of January.

And I think her performance level is getting a bit more consistent. But got to keep working at it, and that should naturally in turn lead to fewer of these sort of 40s / 50s rankings defeats.

Starting the year WR 60 and now live ranked 35. she's 9-6 for the year against 31 to 60 ranked, 7-4 against 41 to 60 ranked, with just that one defeat against lower than WR 60. Hopefully that more consistent performance level will cut these below WR 30 losses to say at most 2 or 3 in a year when she will still inevitably have days when not at her best and / or an already pretty decent player will play above their ranking.

-- Edited by indiana on Saturday 16th of August 2025 09:52:41 PM

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

B00thy wrote:
"a stretch" is being kind I reckon .. it's clearly not realistic. Emma is playing top 20 level .. or maybe a little lower.

It's a good level, as good as she's played before .. with some aspects better than in 2021 but with less freedom, but it ain't "13"

-- Edited by B00thy on Saturday 16th of August 2025 05:24:10 PM

Well, you think TA and its ELO is a stretch, the UTR rankings, which some people support as more accurate than WTA, rate Emma as 9th

https://www.utrsports.net/pages/utr-women-tennis-rankings

Andy Parker · Club Coach

I'll be interested to see the comments posted if Emma gets a real run going in the US Open. I feel the old adage about form is temporary and class is permanent applies, and that Emma is quite a classy [layer when performing at her best.

I thought she ran Sabalenka really close here, and for me there are more than just number crunching stats in whether a player is playing at a top 20 level. I don't think she is playing at the level of Sabalenka, Gauff or Swiatek when they are on top form, but I do think she sits quite comfortably in the next group of players that sit behind the very top players and I think she does have the ability to raise her game when coming up against the top players.

Number crunching doesn't always tell the whole picture I think, no mater how interesting a player's stats are, and for me, Emma is playing at a higher level than her current ranking.

No offence meant to anyone here posting - just my opinion I guess.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

I agree, Andy

I'm just eyeballing it too, nothing scientific going on - but I agree, she's playing above her ranking, IMHO

(and I haven't got much time for her in many, non-tennis ways but, yes, she's definitely a classy tennis player and I think you're little saying is apt)

Peter too · Tennis legend

It depends on the draw but she is certainly capable of reaching the QF in the US Open. She reached the SF in the WTA500 in Washington a month ago but her best tournament this year was probably the WTA1000 in Miami in March, where she beat players ranked 188, 10, 48 and 17 before losing in three sets to Pegula ranked 4. I think she is playing better now than she was back in March so lets hope for a draw like Miami with no top eight players until at least the QF.

-- Edited by Peter too on Sunday 17th of August 2025 01:44:58 PM

Spireman · Club Coach

A couple of comments on rankings and so on.
Firstly the better a players ranking the more who are ranked below them. So Emma ranked at 35 or something may lose to 40, 50 ranked players whereas some time ago they may have been ranked above her. A player at a ranking of 300 but on a steep upward trajectory may never lose to lower ranked players, but if world no 1 loses it has to be to lower ranked player. So ranking wins and losses are a very rough guide in my opinion.

Secondly, I can see how a lot of luck of the draw is involved at the 100 down to 33 ranking level. As not seeded at masters or GS so can have a run of tough draws or the opposite. The key is to break through to get seeded for a good few months and then if good enough the points will come to get top 20 or better. But the way it is if she keeps getting Swiatek, Sabakenka or similar in first or second round, without beating them, then it makes that transition harder or slower.