British Tennis Forum - Celebrating 20 Years!

the addict · Tennis legend

RE: week 32 - WTA1000 - Cincinnati, USA Hard

B00thy · Club Coach

Thanks. I'm interested in this by date.

My interest is when did she start to beat more players ranked 6-10, or 11-20 or 21-30 rather than, say, how many in the 11-20 or 21-30 year to date. Plus I'm not so interested in those 1-5 (most lose against them or 81-100 (most in the top 20 beat them)

I feel Emma's current level is somewhere 21-30 but it would be great to see information to demonstrate where her level is and how her level has progressed throughout the year

B00thy · Club Coach

I just took a swift look at Tennisabstract.

Although I need to take a longer look it was interesting to see that Emma is still losing every month to someone she needs to beat to become a top rank player - March (52), April (36), May (46), June (51) and July (48)

Not losing to this rank of player would be one of the goals I would set her

Peter too · Tennis legend

the addict wrote:
If you want to see more detail have a look at www.tennisabstract.com
You can filter it by results, date - loads of different things. (Probably where Peter got his stats from)
On the winning side, I make it wins over WR10 and WR17 (twice) plus 21 wins over players ranked outside the top 25.
That equates to 21-8 over the lower ranked players

I used the WTA site. I selected Emma and then her matches. They list all her matches going back from today, together with the ranking of her opponent. I just had to compile a list of opponents rankings since January this year and put it in order.

the addict · Tennis legend

Peter too wrote:
the addict wrote:
If you want to see more detail have a look at www.tennisabstract.com
You can filter it by results, date - loads of different things. (Probably where Peter got his stats from)
On the winning side, I make it wins over WR10 and WR17 (twice) plus 21 wins over players ranked outside the top 25.
That equates to 21-8 over the lower ranked players
I used the WTA site. I selected Emma and then her matches. They list all her matches going back from today, together with the ranking of her opponent. I just had to compile a list of opponents rankings since January this year and put it in order.

Yes, that's one way, and I came to the same result as you. But do have a look at the link I posted. It does make life easier - and you can copy and paste into excel to take it a step further.

B00thy · Club Coach

the addict wrote:
Peter too wrote:
the addict wrote:
If you want to see more detail have a look at www.tennisabstract.com
You can filter it by results, date - loads of different things. (Probably where Peter got his stats from)
On the winning side, I make it wins over WR10 and WR17 (twice) plus 21 wins over players ranked outside the top 25.
That equates to 21-8 over the lower ranked players
I used the WTA site. I selected Emma and then her matches. They list all her matches going back from today, together with the ranking of her opponent. I just had to compile a list of opponents rankings since January this year and put it in order.
Yes, that's one way, and I came to the same result as you. But do have a look at the link I posted. It does make life easier - and you can copy and paste into excel to take it a step further.

mine was just a swift look to get that info from .. however I didn't see a way of looking at the underlying data (perhaps I need to sign up?)

-- Edited by B00thy on Friday 15th of August 2025 07:34:26 PM

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Im not sure what date you are after exactly, Boothy, but tennis abstract provides a lot.

www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/wplayer-classic.cgi

This is all Emmas matches this season. Down the left are a series of filters, eg surface, rank, entry type (direct, wild card, qualifier), age of opponent. Click on one of those and you get more filters eg clay, grass etc for surface , top 5, top 10 etc for rank, and so on.

Across the top, are the stats - here it is showing service stats like first percentage in for each match, you can click just above and swap to return stats.

You can then sort those at the top of each column - to analyse below that youd probably need to cut and paste into excel like The Addict says and do your own analysis.

You can also get a list of the top 50 players (Emma is 39 on this list) and compare each stat by players in that group

Or you can look at each stat on different surfaces, or by year,

There is a measure called DR. This measures the relative dominance of there service or return, the more above 1.0 it is, the more their serve dominated, the more below 1.0 suggests their return was more dominant.

I think theres lots of stats here, I guess you just need to work them and try and get what you want - I think youll get more from tennis abstract than most other sites tbh, Tennis abstract is built for stats as a philosophy

www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/wplayer-classic.cgi

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Ps I dont think you need to sign up - its all available as you see it; you can sign up for newsletters and Jeff who runs it produces articles when he gets time which look at specific players; hes not looked at Emma or other Brits but told me he might do one day; hes got a backlog and other players that interest him more (hes not British !)

Heres his last one, about Sabalenka ( hes not had time for a while) www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/05/06/aryna-sabalenka-queen-of-clay/ and another looking at Cerundolo and his second serve www.tennisabstract.com/blog/2025/05/02/francisco-cerundolos-solid-second-serves/

This analysis is all based on stats from his site and fed by his match charting project- he has a squad of people who watch matches and take down all the stats he needs , point by point, and chart them and feed his database

Peter too · Tennis legend

Many years ago I was working on a time series analysis package. It would have been be useful for producing a moving average plot of Emmas losses. If she is improving then the graph would be trending downwards as she increasingly beats players that she previously lost to resulting in her loss average falling.

-- Edited by Peter too on Friday 15th of August 2025 08:31:24 PM

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Peter too wrote:
Many years ago I was working on a time series analysis package. It would have been be useful for producing a moving average plot of Emmas losses. If she is improving then the graph would be trending downwards as she increasingly beats players that she previously lost to resulting in her loss average falling.

-- Edited by Peter too on Friday 15th of August 2025 08:31:24 PM

v crude attempt but something like this - these are her 19 losses this year, from today to start of season. I have averaged the last 5 in a moving list which shows the rank of her opponent that she loses to has gradually reduced as the season goes on. I am not sure what it proves, does the fact she is losing to higher ranked players really mean anything - anyway, average is 21.6 for her last 5 losses and the numbers started dropping around the time she lost to Uchiama in March and dropped thereafter.

21.6	1	(1)Aryna Sabalenka [BLR] d. (30)Raducanu
22.4	7	(5)Amanda Anisimova [USA] d. Raducanu
22	48	Anna Kalinskaya [RUS] d. Raducanu
21.6	1	(1)Aryna Sabalenka [BLR] d. Raducanu
22	51	Maya Joint [AUS] d. (7)Raducanu
19	5	(1)Qinwen Zheng [CHN] d. (WC)Raducanu
18.8	5	(5)Iga Swiatek [POL] d. Raducanu
28.2	46	Danielle Collins [USA] d. (WC)Raducanu
22.4	3	(4)Coco Gauff [USA] d. Raducanu
27	36	(24)Marta Kostyuk [UKR] d. Raducanu
27.2	4	(4)Jessica Pegula [USA] d. Raducanu
46.6	52	Moyuka Uchijima [JPN] d. Raducanu
36.6	17	(14)Karolina Muchova [CZE] d. (WC)Raducanu
35.8	26	Ekaterina Alexandrova [RUS] d. (WC)Raducanu
41.4	37	(WC)Marketa Vondrousova [CZE] d. (WC)Raducanu
	101	Cristina Bucsa [ESP] d. (7)Raducanu
	2	(2)Iga Swiatek [POL] d. Raducanu
	13	(1)Daria Kasatkina [RUS] d. Raducanu
	54	Sofia Kenin [USA] d. Raducanu

-- Edited by JonH comes home on Friday 15th of August 2025 08:40:51 PM

the addict · Tennis legend

Actually I think a graph works better, but you'llhave to click on it to see it.
There is a data point for every win and loss this season (except for two outliers Mini at Wimbledon and Ishii at Miami - both low ranked WC's)
Emma's ranking is in blue
Wins are marked in green and losses in orange.
Dates across the top don't represent tournaments

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

the addict wrote:
Actually I think a graph works better, but you'llhave to click on it to see it.
There is a data point for every win and loss this season (except for two outliers Mini at Wimbledon and Ishii at Miami - both low ranked WC's)
Emma's ranking is in blue
Wins are marked in green and losses in orange.
Dates across the top don't represent tournaments

I agree a graph is much better - sadly I didnt have the tools to do one! Still not sure what it tells us exactly apart from shes playing against and losing to higher ranked players!

more importantly, tennis abstract have an ELO rating which takes each players 52 week win and loss record and equates to the strength of opponent and creates a ranking. It generally correlates well with real rankings but reflects real performance better, I think - on this, Emma is rated 13th; you can see the logarithmic differential in the last column, to real rankings, and Emma is -1.10, so suggesting her real WTA ranking is somewhat below where she really is.

https://tennisabstract.com/reports/wta_elo_ratings.html

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

The same listing suggests Katie B is about right and Sonay may be slightly over ranked based on who she has played, but not by much. It also suggests Fran is seriously under ranked , Jodie well over ranked by the WTA, Heather almost spot on and Harriet maybe slightly under ranked

make of it what you will.

-- Edited by JonH comes home on Friday 15th of August 2025 09:32:15 PM

-- Edited by JonH comes home on Friday 15th of August 2025 09:34:29 PM

the addict · Tennis legend

JonH comes home wrote:
the addict wrote:
Actually I think a graph works better, but you'llhave to click on it to see it.
There is a data point for every win and loss this season (except for two outliers Mini at Wimbledon and Ishii at Miami - both low ranked WC's)
Emma's ranking is in blue
Wins are marked in green and losses in orange.
Dates across the top don't represent tournaments
I agree a graph is much better - sadly I didnt have the tools to do one! Still not sure what it tells us exactly apart from shes playing against and losing to higher ranked players!

Well if you ignore the defeats by top 5 players (Sabalenka, Gauff, Swiantek, Pegula and Zheng) it shows she's been winning most other matches since after Indian Wells. And her ranking has consolidated around the WR40 mark.

It's really a visual way of repeating what Peter was saying.

B00thy · Club Coach

Thanks for all the analysis. I find this valuable as it supports what I guess, that Emma's level is higher than her ranking. That, ignoring the best players, that she can beat most players of her ranking or 15 or 20 so places higher.

So right now she is a 11-20 level player (ranked lower because she's gathering points) and that feels about right. She won't get higher until she corrects her weaknesses with footwork and at the net which hopefully she'll get done by year-end. That should make her a top-10 player.