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British Tennis Forum -> British men discussion section -> Week 26 - The Championships, Wimbledon (grass) - men's qualifying
Post Info TOPIC: Week 26 - The Championships, Wimbledon (grass) - men's qualifying
verveandsolley


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RE: Week 26 - The Championships, Wimbledon (grass) - men's qualifying
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pauldepstein wrote:
Danny1312 wrote:

On the face of it now horrendous first rounds?

 From the rankings and seedings info, I don't see this at all.  3 are playing seeds which is what you would expect in 9 matches.

 Assuming everyone wants to play Wimbledon (which isn't far from the truth), a qualifying player ranked 200 or below would be one of the weaker players.

 4 out of 9 of the Brits will play opponents 200 or below.

 Of course, most of these 9 are expected to lose, but that's because of the lack of strength in the UK at this level -- nothing to do with a bad draw.

  When I say "this level", I of course acknowledge that there's plenty of strength a few levels up --  Jack Draper, Cameron Norrie etc.

 

 It's not even necessarily a lack of depth at this level - players that would normally be in the qualies by right are bumped up to main draw with wildcards, with their places filled by wildcards playing "up" a level



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JonH comes home


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Players well spaced in the draw - chance for all 9 to qualify

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DavidC


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Tomorrow Paul opens up on Show Court 1, which is the one covered by the BBC (Red Button, website etc.) Ryan is third on the same court

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ricardo89


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Hi everyone, happy Sunday, Im going to qualifying on Tuesday for the womens 1st rnd, does anyone know if there is safe parking nearby and if so where pls? Thanks.

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verveandsolley


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Parking is a nightmare. I always used to drive and find somewhere eventually but last year I came a bit unstuck and ended up driving around for an hour before parking very badly in 3/4 of a space and praying I wouldn't get a ticket (I didn't). I'm going Tuesday and Wednesday and reluctantly training it to Barnes station then 15 min walk.

 

 



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the addict


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verveandsolley wrote:

Parking is a nightmare. I always used to drive and find somewhere eventually but last year I came a bit unstuck and ended up driving around for an hour before parking very badly in 3/4 of a space and praying I wouldn't get a ticket (I didn't). I'm going Tuesday and Wednesday and reluctantly training it to Barnes station then 15 min walk. 

 You must have long legs - I couldn't do it in 15 minutes ! (I'm there the same days)



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indiana


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Lots of early British action tomorrow with leading the way on courts 1, 2, 3 and 4.

Court 2 with Oliver T's tough looking one, followed by Jan, may be worth bagging a seat if I can get myself there in good time.

Let's be beating the bookies odds, as I now see that both are underdogs.



-- Edited by indiana on Sunday 22nd of June 2025 08:54:48 PM

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Danny1312


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indiana wrote:

Lots of early British action tomorrow with leading the way on courts 1, 2, 3 and 4.

Court 2 with Oliver T's tough looking one, followed by Jan, may be worth bagging a seat if I can get myself there in good time.

No idea if Oliver is okay on grass? The French guy can be volatile though and I think lost to Hussey? Fery also should've beaten him, no idea on if Oliver will be as capable to push and frustrate him though... utterly looking forward to it all tomorrow though!



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pauldepstein


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DavidC wrote:

(Bold notes on bookmaker predictions are from Paul Epstein not DavidC)

Qualifying round 1 (L128)

QR1: Jan Choinski WR 208 (CH = 126 in August 2023) v Mark Lajal (EST) WR 168 (=CH) (Lajal is favourite)

QR1: (qWC) Hamish Stewart WR 545 (CH = 478 in March 2024) v Valentin Vacherot (MON) WR 267 (CH = 110 in June 2024) (Vacherot is favourite)

QR1: (q5) Tomas Barrios Vera (CHI) WR 112 (CH = 93 in Jan 2024) v (qWC) James Story WR 439 (CH = 434 in May) (Barrios Vera is favourite)

QR1: (qWC) Alastair Gray WR 371 (CH = 237 in Sep 2022) v Arthur Bouquier (FRA)  WR 210 (CH = 189 in March) (Gray is favourite)

QR1: (qWC) Paul Jubb WR 264 (CH = 180 in Oct 2024) v (q19) Thiago Agustin Tirante (ARG) WR 129 (CH = 90 in Apr 2024) (Jubb is favourite)

QR1: Facundo Bagnis (ARG) WR 834 (CH = 55 in November 2016) v (qWC) Ryan Peniston WR 271 (CH = 123 in July 2022) (Peniston is favourite)

QR1: (qWC) Giles Hussey WR 379 (CH = 304 in August 2024) v August Holmgren (DEN)  WR 187 (CH = 163 in August 2024) (Hussey is favourite)

QR1: (q14) Terence Atmane (FRA) WR 123 (CH = 118 in July2024) v (qWC) Oliver Tarvet  WR 647 (CH = 624 in September 2024) (Atmane is favourite)

QR1: (qWC) Oliver Bonding WR 932 (=CH) v Jason Kubler (AUS)  WR 200 (CH = 63 in April 2023) (Kubler is favourite)

 

 


-- Edited by DavidC on Sunday 22nd of June 2025 01:57:55 PM



-- Edited by DavidC on Sunday 22nd of June 2025 02:47:57 PM

          Having worked for a bookmaker for over 5 years, I believe that the betting markets give a good predictor of what is likely to happen.

If they didn't, then it would be possible to win from gambling and it's almost impossible to do so.

So above, for each match, I put the bookies' favourite (there is very little deviation between individual bookmakers).

In 4 out  of 9 cases, the Brit is the favourite, which is more than would be expected, given that most of the Brits are wildcards.

Correct that it's a good draw for those who want to cheer the home side.



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Paul Epstein
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Danny1312 wrote:
indiana wrote:

Lots of early British action tomorrow with leading the way on courts 1, 2, 3 and 4.

Court 2 with Oliver T's tough looking one, followed by Jan, may be worth bagging a seat if I can get myself there in good time.

No idea if Oliver is okay on grass? The French guy can be volatile though and I think lost to Hussey? Fery also should've beaten him, no idea on if Oliver will be as capable to push and frustrate him though... utterly looking forward to it all tomorrow though!

JoMo beat Atmane at Ilkley, two sets but quite close ones. Atmane had a meltdown.  



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Sheddie


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If we manage 4/9 wins, that would definitely be a successful day

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indiana


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Danny1312 wrote:
indiana wrote:

Lots of early British action tomorrow with leading the way on courts 1, 2, 3 and 4.

Court 2 with Oliver T's tough looking one, followed by Jan, may be worth bagging a seat if I can get myself there in good time.

No idea if Oliver is okay on grass? The French guy can be volatile though and I think lost to Hussey? Fery also should've beaten him, no idea on if Oliver will be as capable to push and frustrate him though... utterly looking forward to it all tomorrow though!

 I am sure I read somewhere that San Diego where Oliver did very well in ITFs is very slow. So who knows how he will play on grass.



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Coup Droit


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Coup Droit wrote:
Danny1312 wrote:

On the face of it not horrendous first rounds?



-- Edited by Danny1312 on Sunday 22nd of June 2025 02:27:46 PM

 I think Oli Bonding and Oli Travet have the two most difficult QR1 draws

The rest look nice, definitely as nice or nicer than could be expected smile

The bookies agree on the two biggest outsiders - both Bonding and Tarvet are at 5.5 x 

James Story is the next least likely, according to them, at 5 x

Others are:

Jan 3 x

Hamish 2.6 x

Alastair 1.6 x

Giles 1.5 x

Paul 1.3 x 

Ryan 1.11 x



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indiana


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OK, so the Court 2 double of Oliver T and Jan is 16.5

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pauldepstein


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indiana wrote:

OK, so the Court 2 double of Oliver T and Jan is 16.5

         Of course, such a bet would be a terrible idea.  If you take the view that both those bets are attractive, it's much more sensible to simply bet on both of them individually.

         (This viewpoint can be justified mathematically by equations -- I used to do that for a living.)



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