Week 6 - ATP Challenger 100 - Chennai, India (hard)

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Week 6 - ATP Challenger 100 - Chennai, India (hard)

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Jacquet won the other semi and thus be the final opponent for whoever comes through Billys semi.

wolf · Tennis legend

SF: Elias Ymer (SWE) WR 332 defeated (1) Billy Harris WR 129 by 7-6(5) 7-6(2)

Mervatron2 · Challenger qualifying

Hmm. Is it gonna happen? Top 100 or win a challenger that is?

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Real shame and disappointment- still, progress for Billy I feel, and two more Indian events where he will be seeded very highly in a relatively weak field, so maybe he can continue towards both those two goals.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Billy is on 499 points and 100 rank is 582. Billy has 9 points dropping off next week and 7 more a couple of weeks later. So lets say he has 100 points to gain to reach the top 100 by the end of his Indian trip.

Those who know rankings tables, is that possible? The next two events are ch 75 arent they? Would he need two finals or a title and a semi or some such to crack the 100?

Feels like a stretch whilst in India, even though he is seeded two in both challengers coming up. Maybe we need to look to the upcoming US swing?

indiana · Tennis legend

The coming 2 Indian Challengers Billy ts entered for are actually a Challenger 75 and then a Challenger 100. With title points corresponding with names, 175 points for both titles would certainly do the top 100 trick.

As you say, he is on 499 points live. He is only due to drop one 16 pointer in the coming 2 weeks. So if adding 2 decent ranking scores in, that would be 16 + 7 ( his 19th counter ) = 23 to drop off. So 499 - 23 = 476 points.

So with live ranked 100 on 582 points ( current official WR 100 is on 587 points ), likely to be just a bit over 100 points required.

Challenger 100 points are 100 / 50 / 25 / 14 / 7
Challenger 75 points are 75 / 44 / 22 / 12 / 6

So win the 100 and it's likely not much more needed.

Win the 75, and a 25 point SF would make 100, and a 50 point final for 125 probably ensure it.

2 RUs for 94 points would probably not be enough.

Of course Billy doesn't have to do it in these 2 weeks but it would be good to at least make big inroads.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
The coming 2 Indian Challengers Billy ts entered for are actually a Challenger 75 and then a Challenger 100. With title points corresponding with names, 175 points for both titles would certainly do the top 100 trick.

As you say, he is on 499 points live. He is only due to drop one 16 pointer in the coming 2 weeks. So if adding 2 decent ranking scores in, that would be 16 + 7 ( his 19th counter ) = 23 to drop off. So 499 - 23 = 476 points.

So with live ranked 100 on 582 points ( current official WR 100 is on 587 points ), likely to be just a bit over 100 points required.

Challenger 100 points are 100 / 50 / 25 / 14 / 7
Challenger 75 points are 75 / 44 / 22 / 12 / 6

So win the 100 and it's likely not much more needed.
Win the 75, and a 25 point SF would make 100, and a 50 point final for 125 probably ensure it.
2 RUs for 94 points would probably not be enough.

Of course Billy doesn't have to do it in these 2 weeks but it would be good to at least make big inroads.

Thanks Indy - makes sense. LTR 5 week forecasts shows 9 points dropping off next week - would that be 16-7 for the 19th counter - and then 7 more in 3 weeks time. So 16 total as opposed to 23? Or have they got that wrong?

either way, the logic all works!

indiana · Tennis legend

LTR is showing the correct net drop offs assuming nothing added In, 16 - 7 = 9 and 14 -7 = 7 ( the 14 is for the week after India so I've ignored it ).

Given we are wanting to add 2 scores in, the relevant drops to go against these are 16 + 7 ( 19th counter ) = 23

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
LTR is showing the correct net drop offs assuming nothing added In, 16 - 7 = 9 and 14 -7 = 7 ( the 14 is for the week after India so I've ignored it ).

Given we are wanting to add 2 scores in, the relevant drops to go against these are 16 + 7 ( 19th counter ) = 23

Ah, got it now - his new points from next two weeks in india would replace the counter as well, hence why you say 23 to come off? Got it

-- Edited by JonH comes home on Saturday 8th of February 2025 01:38:42 PM

9vicman · Satellite level

JonH comes home:
Billy is on 499 points and 100 rank is 582. Billy has 9 points dropping off next week and 7 more a couple of weeks later. So lets say he has 100 points to gain to reach the top 100 by the end of his Indian trip.

Those who know rankings tables, is that possible? The next two events are ch 75 arent they? Would he need two finals or a title and a semi or some such to crack the 100?

Feels like a stretch whilst in India, even though he is seeded two in both challengers coming up. Maybe we need to look to the upcoming US swing?

Had a look at Billy's record versus Top 200 since the beginning of 2024, and away from grass he has had a total of five wins. I think he's done really well, but for me he is an example of someone who has managed to max out their ability. With a bit of good scheduling (India this month) and winning matches he 'should' win, yes there is still a chance to break the Top 100, but I don't think he has a much higher ceiling.

Stircrazy · Tennis legend

wolf wrote:
SF: Elias Ymer (SWE) WR 332 defeated (1) Billy Harris WR 129 by 7-6(5) 7-6(2)

And watch out for little brother, Mikael, once he gets back properly back into his stride following his return from his doping ban.