JonH comes home wrote:

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9vicman wrote:

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Thanks Steven. Interesting to see that the bookies have Harris, Jubb and Fearnley as favourites. And each of them can win, but the three opponents ate decent players, and one came through qualifying. Think a case of recency bias.

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 Probably full then. 

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 <burp>

Tennis abstract forecasts 6 men round one wins, and just 2 womens.

www.tennisabstract.com/current/2024WimbledonMenForecast.html

JonH comes home wrote:

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When was the last time we had 12 players in round one of Wimbledon (or any slam?) - someone will tell me it was quite recent, but it feels like a recent high to me.

Looking at this, my instinct (and I am usually wrong) is...

Arthur Fery - probably too tough for him, expect a loss
Charles Broom - could win this, Stan on grass in round one; I'd go go fifty fifty here
Liam - doubting he is match fit so not expecting a win
Jan C - toss up for this, not expecting a win
Evo - dont think he is going to be fit, so will expect a no show or a loss
Jack D - yep, straight sets
Cam - yep, Cam will win
Henry - tough for him, dont think he will do it
Andy - dont expect he will play, or win
Billy - on a roll, a win!
Paul - on a similar roll, a win
Jake - think Jake will win this

So I am going with 5 or maybe 6 wins from 12 - again, when would be the last time we had 6 in round 2? Again, probably last year I will be told!!

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 Im hoping Charlie can beat Stan - hes 39, not won much in last few months or played a single match on grass.

Agree Paul and Billy on a roll, Cam disappointing, lets hope he can pull it together.

Been considering all of these points when developing my Brit Wins Tennis Predictions algorithm 

Monday OoP

Charles - 2nd on No 2
Liam - 3rd on 12
Arthur - 2nd on 16

Probabilities updated with odds just before play started - quite a bit of movement since Friday:

GB men's R1 winner probabilities based on odds:

93% Draper
92% Norrie
65% Fearnley
61% Harris
57% Jubb
51% Féry
42% Broom
39% Broady
32% Evans
31% Choinski
29% Murray
18% Searle

E(GB men's R1 wins) = 6.1

Nasty twisting fall by Altamaier, playing Arthur

Ohh dear Broom was well on top then experience from both ends kicked in... lack of at one end and the opposite at the other... shame