Weeks 27-28 - The Championships, Wimbledon (grass)

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Weeks 27-28 - The Championships, Wimbledon (grass)

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Tennis abstract rates our womens chances as 2.043 wins, so slightly less than the bookies

www.tennisabstract.com/current/2024WimbledonWomenForecast.html

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Sonay at 41.7% chance

steven · Tennis legend

JonH comes home wrote:
Tennis abstract rates our womens chances as 2.043 wins, so slightly less than the bookies

www.tennisabstract.com/current/2024WimbledonWomenForecast.html

Tennis abstract is more scientific (which I like) but doesn't take subjective factors into account, which the bookies usually do quite a good job of, given that their livelihoods depend on it. I do agree that the odds imply a bit of over-optimism though.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Emma court 1, last match; Sonay and Lily court 3.

Makes sense I think.

steven · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
Sonay being favourite is also a reflection of the fact that everyone hates Burel's game

And you can't really have odds that are UK-biased - or else everyone else would bet on it because they'd be getting so much better odds here than on their own sites

Though, that said, it does seem like it sometimes ---

You're right about that but I still think it's possible that the global odds for Wimbledon are influenced a bit by the Brits, simply because I think some people are more likely to bet on their home slam than on overseas slams. (Apologies if I said something similar yesterday, I definitely thought it but can't remember whether I wrote it!)

9vicman · Satellite level

steven wrote:
Coup Droit wrote:
Sonay being favourite is also a reflection of the fact that everyone hates Burel's game

And you can't really have odds that are UK-biased - or else everyone else would bet on it because they'd be getting so much better odds here than on their own sites

Though, that said, it does seem like it sometimes ---
You're right about that but I still think it's possible that the global odds for Wimbledon are influenced a bit by the Brits, simply because I think some people are more likely to bet on their home slam than on overseas slams. (Apologies if I said something similar yesterday, I definitely thought it but can't remember whether I wrote it!)

That's what I meant. I wasn't suggesting that it was a UK betting site but that a disproportionate number of bets will be put on a home player at a home Slam.

I suspect very few people betting against Burel have even heard of her key alone dislike her style of play.

-- Edited by 9vicman on Tuesday 2nd of July 2024 09:33:49 PM

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

9vicman wrote:
steven wrote:
Coup Droit wrote:
Sonay being favourite is also a reflection of the fact that everyone hates Burel's game

And you can't really have odds that are UK-biased - or else everyone else would bet on it because they'd be getting so much better odds here than on their own sites

Though, that said, it does seem like it sometimes ---
You're right about that but I still think it's possible that the global odds for Wimbledon are influenced a bit by the Brits, simply because I think some people are more likely to bet on their home slam than on overseas slams. (Apologies if I said something similar yesterday, I definitely thought it but can't remember whether I wrote it!)
That's what I meant. I wasn't suggesting that it was a UK betting site but that a disproportionate number of bets will be put on a home player at a home Slam.
I suspect very few people betting against Burel have even heard of her key alone dislike her style of play.

Well, the BJK Cup was only two months ago - so some tennis fans will surely remember her from that

It's true, I was sort of being tongue in cheek about Burel

But she really played a most disgraceful match against Katie Boulter this year in the BJK Cup

And anyone who's done their homework should know her from that - and would be tempted to put a pound on Sonay, just as a statement of protest, if nothing else

9vicman · Satellite level

Coup Droit wrote:
9vicman wrote:
steven wrote:
Coup Droit wrote:
Sonay being favourite is also a reflection of the fact that everyone hates Burel's game

And you can't really have odds that are UK-biased - or else everyone else would bet on it because they'd be getting so much better odds here than on their own sites

Though, that said, it does seem like it sometimes ---
You're right about that but I still think it's possible that the global odds for Wimbledon are influenced a bit by the Brits, simply because I think some people are more likely to bet on their home slam than on overseas slams. (Apologies if I said something similar yesterday, I definitely thought it but can't remember whether I wrote it!)
That's what I meant. I wasn't suggesting that it was a UK betting site but that a disproportionate number of bets will be put on a home player at a home Slam.
I suspect very few people betting against Burel have even heard of her key alone dislike her style of play.

Well, the BJK Cup was only two months ago - so some tennis fans will surely remember her from that
It's true, I was sort of being tongue in cheek about Burel
But she really played a most disgraceful match against Katie Boulter this year in the BJK Cup
And anyone who's done their homework should know her from that - and would be tempted to put a pound on Sonay, just as a statement of protest, if nothing else

And not a great grass court player - just two wins at Wimbledon both against qualifiers. Hopefully she won't beat a third qualifier!

dodrade · Futures qualifying

PaulM wrote:
It's a shame because she really deserved that moment on a huge court (most likely Centre) against Iga.

Poor Fran, how many matches has she lost this this year when on top due to her body letting her down?

markymc1983 · Club Coach

Coup Droit wrote:
Sonay being favourite is also a reflection of the fact that everyone hates Burel's game

Im not familiar with Burel whats wrong with her game lol

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

markymc1983 wrote:
Coup Droit wrote:
Sonay being favourite is also a reflection of the fact that everyone hates Burel's game

Im not familiar with Burel whats wrong with her game lol

Firstly, as a one-off but it's very recent so it's still very raw:

she absolutely sulked, gave up and had an utter toddler tantrum sort of moment when playing Katie in April, I think it was, in the BJK Cup. The French were livid. She possibly 'should' have won the first set - but didn't - it happens - but then she just couldn't be ar*ed, just sulked, and barely played in the second. For a team match, it was disgraceful.

Secondly, and more generally, she basically plays a rather 'push' game, with sudden surprises. She's been trying to make it a little more aggressive. And sometimes it works. But often reverts to her basic mode of just getting the ball back. In a pretty clay sort of fashion. Lots of elevation on the ball. Long points. It can be deadly boring and you nearly always end up wanting the other player to win.

Now, again, as she's got older she's tried to be a little more on the front foot.

If Sonay can rattle her, with the score, but also with her unexpected whippy forehands, (i.e. Clara doesn't like being embarrassed on court) she's got a very good chance. Of course, she now may play the match of her life :(

emmsie69 · Top national player

If anyone is going to Wimbledon on a ground pass, there is now a virtual queue for show courts at the resale hut so head straight there to get in the queue, then go off an enjoy your tennis. When there are tickets available, you'll get a text message to head back to the resale hut.
There is a LOT of queuing this year. To get onto Court 3 you now have to join a queue to get a ticket for a place in the queue.
Finally apparently not all reusable cups are reusable. I took the cup I got from qualifying and my usual Waitrose cup and they wouldn't serve a coffee in the Wimbledon cup as it was a hospitality cup!!!

Oh and I'm in complete and utter awe of Fran. We could all say where would she be without the EED but she manages brilliantly and has a super game.

-- Edited by emmsie69 on Wednesday 3rd of July 2024 08:40:58 AM

indiana · Tennis legend

Sonay vs Burel certainly looks like being very interesting.

In all rhe circumstances, Tennis Abstract having Sonay quite a bit less than 50% is understandable but so also is the bookies making her favourite. I would make her favourite myself and I don't think I'm crazy

LordBrownof · Futures level

From the outset I had Sonay making the third round in my predictions. I felt Cristea was on a bad run (and I don't like her) and Sonay would be too solid. Would love to get a rare prediction correct!