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Post Info TOPIC: 2023 Women's Predictions Competition


Tennis legend

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2023 Women's Predictions Competition


Time to start scratching your heads and come up with your predictions for 2023. We had just 27 entries last year, so I hope more will take part this time around. Over forty people voted in the Player of the Season poll so it would be good to get more entries here. The closing date for entries is midnight on Dec 28th to give me time to process the entries before the tours start again on January 1st. As the time is tight this year I won't be accepting any late entries !

The finishing date for the competition will be the Monday after the ATP finals (20th November 2023) or after any later WTA events, although this may be extended further depending on the tour calendars and participation of our players. I won't be putting any entries onto the spreadsheet before Christmas, so until then you can change your entry as much as you like - but please, do it by editing your post rather than posting afresh, to save me some work !

Just so everyone is clear, and for anyone who didn't take part last year, here are the competition rules

Select 10 players and give your prediction of their end-of season GB ranking and world ranking.

As in the 2022 competition one substitute player is allowed, who must be named as such at the same time as the main selection of 10. Their predicted WR must also be given. The eleventh player may be substituted for any one of your main selections, but only in the two weeks immediately following the end of Wimbledon (i.e. 17th to 29th July only, to be confirmed precisely nearer the time). This will give a little flexibility, particularly in the case of long-term injuries, and will make it more interesting. The substitute will take your prediction of the GB ranking of the player they replace, so for example if you replaced Katie Boulter (GB #4) with Tara Moore, Tara would become your #4 prediction so think carefully ! Continuing from last year, there will be two dummy entries, AsYouWere (based on the starting rankings) and Mr Average (based on everyones WR predictions).

Points will be awarded with a maximum of 10 points per player split between GB ranking and world ranking.

GB rankings. 5 points for a correct prediction, 4 for one out, 3 for 2 out, 2 for 3 out, 1 for 4 out or more than 4 out and player finishes in GB top 10. Note you can get points if a player finishes as low as GB14 e.g. You predict 10 they finish 14 difference is 4 so 1 point. You also get a point if your player finishes in the top ten if you havent gained any points already i.e. you predict GB7 and they finish GB1 you still get one point.

World ranking. Tweaking this slightly this year, hopefully to give a few extra points.

5 points if your prediction is within 7.5%, 4 if +/- 12.5%, 3 if +/- 20%, 2 if +/- 25% and 1 if  within +/- 30%  The reason why world ranking points is on % is that there is a big spread of rankings for GB top 10, so this method tries to even it out.



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Specialist Reporter + Intermediate Club Player

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Emma Raducanu 5
Harriet Dart 85
Katie Swan 95
Katie Boulter 110
Heather Watson 130
Jodie Burrage 150
Sonay Kartal 175
Yuriko Miyazaki 205
Eden Silva 255
Maia Lumsden 280

--

Substitute

Fran Jones 180

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Tennis legend

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Here we go:

1. Emma R 40
2. Harriet D 80
3. Jodie B 110
4. Katie B 120
5 Katie S 130
6. Lily M 200
7. Sonay K 240
8. Anna B 250
9. Heather W 300
10. Eliz M 320

Sub - Ella McDonald 250

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Junior player

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  1. Emma                 30
  2. Harriet                70
  3. Katie S                80
  4. Jodie                   90
  5. Katie B               100
  6. Sonay                 120
  7. Heather              140
  8. Lily                      160
  9. Anna                   230
  10. Beth                    260

Sub Naiktha              280



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Tennis legend

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Certainly is a scratching head exercise. I'm hopeless at predicting women in tennis predictons and in life generally!

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All-time great

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wrp23.jpg



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Tennis legend

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Thanks to you all for getting the entries started.

As an aid to the rest of you, here are my personal thoughts on our women players and how their year has gone in 2022. This summary only includes the players who were selected by the participants in the competition.

Emma Raducanu

Emma's fall down the rankings was expected, but with a few more wins she would have easily stayed in the top 50 or higher (another 250 points would be WR49). Minor injuries were the problem and hopefully the winter training block will prevent some of that for next season.

Harriet Dart

Harriet stepped it up to play mainly WTA events this year and made it into the top 100, but slipped back slightly from her CH of 84 in July. She's beaten some good players this year too.

Jodie Burrage

Great improvement from Jodie in the latter part of the season.Seems to have got her head under control - well almost ! The potential is there .

Katie Boulter

Some tremendous performances by Katie this year and has beaten some top players, but still suffering from niggling injuries so hasn't moved on up as much as had been expected.

Heather Watson

A year of win one, lose one. Has struggled to string together consecutive wins and lost a few matches she should have won. Her BJK Cup performance against Spain shows that desire is still there.

Katie Swan

Some excellent results this year, but another stop-start season affected by injuries and retirements.

Sonay Kartal

Did very well in the first half of the year, but has struggled to put together wins since.

Eden Silva

Hard to know what to make of Eden. Her results have been fairly consistent this year with a number of W25 QFs, although she did win a W25 at Nottingham in April. Still managed to reach a CH at the end of the season though, and should improve next year.

Naiktha Bains

Her main successes have been back in Australia last year and this she didn't have a good summer.

Sarah Beth Grey

Has had health problems earlier in the year and possibly not fully recovered. She did achieve a new CH in the summer, but has slipped back since then with a few retirals and late withdrawals

Freya Christie

Went through a lean spell, particularly in the grass season, but climbing back up the rankings again now.

Maia Lumsden

Missed the first 4 months of the year and didn't get a main draw win until Nottingham in June.

Amanda Carreras

Has played higher level tournaments this year without much success.

Matilda Mutavdzic

Hasn't played since early September 2022 - she's 18 - school ?

Tara Moore

Currently suspended and hasn't played since May 2022

Katy Dunne

Didn't play from Nov 2020 to July 2022.Just a handfull of matches recently on her return.

Samantha Murray

Will lose her third counter and ranking in February. Hasnt played singles since February 2022

Holly Hutchinson

A number of retirements have prevented her making any progress up the rankings

Francesca Jones

Hasn't played since retiring in QR1 at the AO in January



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Intermediate Club Player

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Emma Raducanu 28
Heather Watson 64
Harriet Dart 78
Katie Boulter 88
Jodie Burrage 125
Katie Swan 130
Sonay Kartal 186
Yuriko Miyazaki 202
Amarni Banks 235
Talia Neilson 300

Sub Jasmine Conway 438



-- Edited by Rich2310 on Thursday 15th of December 2022 05:02:05 PM

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Rich2310



Tennis legend

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the addict wrote:

 

Time to start scratching your heads and come up with your predictions for 2023. We had just 27 entries last year, so I hope more will take part this time around. Over forty people voted in the Player of the Season poll so it would be good to get more entries here. The closing date for entries is midnight on Dec 28th to give me time to process the entries before the tours start again on January 1st. As the time is tight this year I won't be accepting any late entries !

The finishing date for the competition will be the Monday after the ATP finals (20th November 2023) or after any later WTA events, although this may be extended further depending on the tour calendars and participation of our players. I won't be putting any entries onto the spreadsheet before Christmas, so until then you can change your entry as much as you like - but please, do it by editing your post rather than posting afresh, to save me some work !

Just so everyone is clear, and for anyone who didn't take part last year, here are the competition rules

Select 10 players and give your prediction of their end-of season GB ranking and world ranking.

As in the 2022 competition one substitute player is allowed, who must be named as such at the same time as the main selection of 10. Their predicted WR must also be given. The eleventh player may be substituted for any one of your main selections, but only in the two weeks immediately following the end of Wimbledon (i.e. 17th to 29th July only, to be confirmed precisely nearer the time). This will give a little flexibility, particularly in the case of long-term injuries, and will make it more interesting. The substitute will take your prediction of the GB ranking of the player they replace, so for example if you replaced Katie Boulter (GB #4) with Tara Moore, Tara would become your #4 prediction so think carefully ! Continuing from last year, there will be two dummy entries, AsYouWere (based on the starting rankings) and Mr Average (based on everyones WR predictions).

Points will be awarded with a maximum of 10 points per player split between GB ranking and world ranking.

GB rankings. 5 points for a correct prediction, 4 for one out, 3 for 2 out, 2 for 3 out, 1 for 4 out or more than 4 out and player finishes in GB top 10. Note you can get points if a player finishes as low as GB14 e.g. You predict 10 they finish 14 difference is 4 so 1 point. You also get a point if your player finishes in the top ten if you havent gained any points already i.e. you predict GB7 and they finish GB1 you still get one point.

World ranking. Tweaking this slightly this year, hopefully to give a few extra points.

5 points if your prediction is within 7.5%, 4 if +/- 12.5%, 3 if +/- 20%, 2 if +/- 25% and 1 if  within +/- 30%  The reason why world ranking points is on % is that there is a big spread of rankings for GB top 10, so this method tries to even it out.


 Hi TA - just on the world ranking percentage, remind me how it works.

If player ends 80th ranked and I predicted 100th ranked, am I 20% and get 3 points (ie 20 out of 100) or am I 25% out (ie 20/80) and get 2 points? I guess it probably won't matter too much but just so we are clear! 

 



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Tennis legend

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It's calculated as the difference between the actual ranking and the predicted ranking, expressed as a percentage of the actual ranking. So in your example it is (100-80)/80x100%=25% and 2 points.

(That's how Simon explained it to me when I took this over !)

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Tennis legend

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the addict wrote:

It's calculated as the difference between the actual ranking and the predicted ranking, expressed as a percentage of the actual ranking. So in your example it is (100-80)/80x100%=25% and 2 points.

(That's how Simon explained it to me when I took this over !)


 makes sense !! (who is/was Simon, by the way, and well done for creating this in the first place!!) 



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Tennis legend

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Simon (usename Sim) ran this competition before me and handed over to me for the 2020 competition. He had a spreadsheet for working out the scores, but I rewrote it in Excel in more detail to make the process as automated as possible. It looks like Sim hasn't logged in since April, but may be lurking in the background !

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All-time great

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the addict wrote:

Simon (usename Sim) ran this competition before me and handed over to me for the 2020 competition. He had a spreadsheet for working out the scores, but I rewrote it in Excel in more detail to make the process as automated as possible. It looks like Sim hasn't logged in since April, but may be lurking in the background !


 Very well done for taking this on biggrinbiggrinbiggrin



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Strong Club Player

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My predictions

1. Emma R 50
2. Katie S 100
3. Harriet D 127
4. Katie B 155
5 Jodie B 156
6. Heather W 190
7. Lily M 191
8. Anna B 300
9. Naiktha B 306
10. Eliz M 307

Sub - Amarni B 350



-- Edited by telstar on Friday 23rd of December 2022 04:28:28 PM

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Pro player

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I'm choosing to be optimistic!

1. Emma R - 45
2. Harriet - 90
3. Katie B - 95
4. Katie S - 98
5. Jodie - 100
6. Heather - 110
7. Sonay - 145
8. Lily - 150
9. Anna B - 260
10. Eden - 275



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