Weeks 22 & 23 - French Open (Roland-Garros) - Paris, France (clay) - main draw

HarryGem · Club Coach

Weeks 22 & 23 - French Open (Roland-Garros) - Paris, France (clay) - main draw

flamingowings · All-time great

Bertens pulled out of both Rome and Belgrade (Achilles) so that's a definite concern over fitness. Vekic had a "small knee surgery" in February and hasn't played since the Australian Open, there's the female version of Kei Nishikori (Andreescu) and Naomi Osaka who could bomb out in the first round.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

HarryGem wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
Pegula v Badosa my prediction for the final
Lots of people are talking up Badosa. She's playing at a pretty high level right now but has a difficult first couple of rounds to negotiate. I like Pegula but she was pretty hopeless last time out. You could probably get quite good odds on this prediction?
This is copied from TF so I presume is correct
(15) Azarenka v. Kuznetsova
Tauson v. Badosa
Fernandez v. Potapova
(WC) Dodin v. (23) Keys

Yep, that section is correct. She is 13-2 on clay (more wins WTA clay wins than anybody this year), and has beaten some decent players, won her first WTA title the other day to the loss of just 20 games through the whole week, and her clay schedule has worked out so well in terms of matches and rest, after withdrawing from Rome and Strasbourg.

However, not the easiest section. Even that first match against Tauson - they met at the start of March in Lyon (indoor hard) and Clara won in straights (as the clear betting fave), but obviously their respective results have gone in the different directions since then, not helped by Clara having a few injuries, Clay will also favour Badosa, and the pre match odds have subsequently flipped 180, but Badosa made a point in an interview how already beating Sevastova and Bencic earlier this year gave her the confidence to do so later on in Madrid, so hopefully the reverse isn't true for her psychologically... It could then be Sabalenka if she manages to negotiate those first 3 matches, and match her L16 showing from last October.

But, if a seed withdraws before the first OOP is released, she will subsequently be bumped into a seeding position in a re-jigged draw, and all this would be academic. As a fan, I'd probably prefer it just to stay as it is - she could quite easily lose in those first couple of rounds, but I think she will at least start as the betting fave against them all, even Vika (Paula is the current 10th outright favourite), a potential L16 with Sabalenka would be tough, but if she did get that far, then it would be a good showing for a non seed.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Looking at the performances at Madrid and Rome, the two big W1000 warm up events, only Ash Barty reached the last 8 in both - a QF and a RU spot.

So this is really wide open - I know I made a daft prediction earlier but this could genuinely be anyone's.

The mens, although I follow it more, is actually much less interesting.

Andy Parker · Strong Club Player

I agree with HarryGem on some of those predictions for upsets. Kenin v Ostapenko jumped out as the match of the first round for me - on her day, Ostapenko is a brilliant player and can beat anyone. Should be a cracker and wouldn't like to call it.

Anisimova is another player of great potential. She looked to be heading right to the top 10 and then her Dad, who was also her coach, suddenly drop dead at around the time of her 17th birthday and since then she has understandably not been the same player. I do think the potential is there for her to break through at some point and I will be interested to see how she gets on against Kudermertova - hard to call, I think.

Another one I think who could cause an upset is Camilla Giorgi, who is excellent on clay and is up against Petra Martic, who always looks mediocre until each Grand Slam and then normally turns into a completely different player - I have watched her form and results for years and she gives me the impression that she pretty much only cares about Grand Slams - the 2 of them in a match up on clay could be a tennis boffin's classic, though I am sure it will go under the radar for most people.

Anyway can't wait for it to start - looking forward to seeing lots of ITV4 - all good apart from John Inverdale, who is the most annoying tennis host I have ever come across.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Ace Ventura wrote:
HarryGem wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
Pegula v Badosa my prediction for the final
Lots of people are talking up Badosa. She's playing at a pretty high level right now but has a difficult first couple of rounds to negotiate. I like Pegula but she was pretty hopeless last time out. You could probably get quite good odds on this prediction?
This is copied from TF so I presume is correct
(15) Azarenka v. Kuznetsova
Tauson v. Badosa
Fernandez v. Potapova
(WC) Dodin v. (23) Keys

Yep, that section is correct. She is 13-2 on clay (more wins WTA clay wins than anybody this year), and has beaten some decent players, won her first WTA title the other day to the loss of just 20 games through the whole week, and her clay schedule has worked out so well in terms of matches and rest, after withdrawing from Rome and Strasbourg.
However, not the easiest section. Even that first match against Tauson - they met at the start of March in Lyon (indoor hard) and Clara won in straights (as the clear betting fave), but obviously their respective results have gone in the different directions since then, not helped by Clara having a few injuries, Clay will also favour Badosa, and the pre match odds have subsequently flipped 180, but Badosa made a point in an interview how already beating Sevastova and Bencic earlier this year gave her the confidence to do so later on in Madrid, so hopefully the reverse isn't true for her psychologically... It could then be Sabalenka if she manages to negotiate those first 3 matches, and match her L16 showing from last October.
But, if a seed withdraws before the first OOP is released, she will subsequently be bumped into a seeding position in a re-jigged draw, and all this would be academic. As a fan, I'd probably prefer it just to stay as it is - she could quite easily lose in those first couple of rounds, but I think she will at least start as the betting fave against them all, even Vika (Paula is the current 10th outright favourite), a potential L16 with Sabalenka would be tough, but if she did get that far, then it would be a good showing for a non seed.

And after all this, Riske withdraws and Badosa subsequently moves into a seeding position. Her first 2 rounds now look a lot kinder (Lauren Davis, and then Burel/Kovinic), and it's potentially Osaka in R3 - that would be a great chance for her to boost her profile, even in a spirited loss.

Disappointing Riske didn't withdraw before the draw was made, but I actually quite like re-jig to be honest.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

So now it's:

Badosa vs Davis
WC Burel vs Kovinic
Q vs Bogdan
(2) Osaka vs Tig

Bertens and Vondrousova are the potential L16 seeds. Those 66/1 odds I got are looking a bit better now.

emmsie69 · ATP level

and 2 LL spots now with possibly 2 more to come

PaulM · Tennis legend

If Badosa can keep it together she's got a real chance.

Harriet is now 5th highest ranked seeded loser. If my understanding is correct, two known withdrawals means the highest 6 go into a draw (4 plus number of spaces). But could easily not be in the running by the end of the day, and I'd certainly like one of the slots to go to Zvonoreva.

emmsie69 · ATP level

PaulM wrote:
If Badosa can keep it together she's got a real chance.

Harriet is now 5th highest ranked seeded loser. If my understanding is correct, two known withdrawals means the highest 6 go into a draw (4 plus number of spaces). But could easily not be in the running by the end of the day, and I'd certainly like one of the slots to go to Zvonoreva.

I'd like Zvonoreva to get 1, not really sure whether it would even benefit Harriet to get one or if she would be better off just getting onto the grass ASAP

SuperT · Futures qualifying

emmsie69 wrote:
PaulM wrote:
If Badosa can keep it together she's got a real chance.

Harriet is now 5th highest ranked seeded loser. If my understanding is correct, two known withdrawals means the highest 6 go into a draw (4 plus number of spaces). But could easily not be in the running by the end of the day, and I'd certainly like one of the slots to go to Zvonoreva.
I'd like Zvonoreva to get 1, not really sure whether it would even benefit Harriet to get one or if she would be better off just getting onto the grass ASAP

That sounds a bit harsh. I agree Harriet had a poor day yesterday, but she played well before that and who knows what the reasons were for yesterday's performance? There are plenty examples of lucky losers going on to have a good run in the main draw so I say good luck to her.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Yes, I agree. A one-off really poor performance could be because she was up all night with an upset stomach, or she'd just found out that her cat had died, or anything really.

SuperT · Futures qualifying

Exactly, and at the risk of touching on a taboo subject the ladies do have certain days when they don't feel as well as normal.

-- Edited by SuperT on Friday 28th of May 2021 11:45:25 AM

emmsie69 · ATP level

It wasn't meant to be harsh, I certainly agree that there could've been other issues given her performance in the previous 2 matches and there are definitely players in the MD that she can beat but she isn't defending many points between now and Wimbledon I don't think so it may benefit her grass court season (which she loves) to get on the grass quick

ETA It's not like Harriet to capitualte so easily usually

-- Edited by emmsie69 on Friday 28th of May 2021 11:47:18 AM

SuperT · Futures qualifying

Yes I can see the logic there Emmsie - I just didn't want to see her written off too easily.