Week 21 - ITF (W15) Monastir, Tunisia, Hard

the addict · Tennis legend

RE: Week 21 - ITF (W15) Monastir, Tunisia, Hard

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

the addict wrote:
Coup Droit wrote:
Don't know if it's the usual 'overly optimistic' GB betting, but pretty amazing that the odds are so close (1.61. v 2.2) for Alice to be playing the top seed, ranked 380
It's Arakawa's fifth tournament of the year, and she was 1-4 before this week. Career high of 352 back in February 2020, so currently sliding down. Lost to 17yo Simone WR1350 last week, and needed three sets to beat WR872 in the first round this week. So I reckon Alice has a good chance, based on that form.

Wish I'd checked with you first, the addict, before putting my 10p on her opponent - as Alice breaks in the first game ! biggrin

But I'd be really thrilled if Alice won, and she played some great tennis at times in the ProLeague events - allez, Ali !

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

It doesn't seem a traditional top 400 players though:

www.tennisexplorer.com/player/arakawa-ac77f/

Only played 12 matches since 2019, lost 12 of her last 14 matches. Lost 2 matches this month in straight sets to 1000+ players (although I think one of them is reasonably promising).

Her last 4 matches in 2019 before the subsequent inactivity included 0 and 2, 1 and 1, and 3 and 0 (to Naiktha) defeats.

www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/wplayer-classic.cgi

Whether someone like Alice can ask questions though remains to be seen, but I can certainly see why bookies wouldn't have much confidence on the Japanese player based on her past 20 months or so (everything included, form and inactivity). Worth pointing out that Bet 365 do also seem to have it closest mind looking at the list on tennisexplorer, most of the other bookies have it nearer 2.50, like William Hill do, although that would of course still look very small if it was Alice vs a regular top 400 plater.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

That post was started before TA's post. So at least 15 mins that I won't get back biggrin

the addict · Tennis legend

Arakawa served 13/16 first serves in that game, and lost 8 of them.

the addict · Tennis legend

Ace Ventura wrote:
That post was started before TA's post. So at least 15 mins that I won't get back

It was worth the 15 minutes though for the superior information ! I only spent a couple looking at the ITF profile.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

the addict wrote:
Ace Ventura wrote:
That post was started before TA's post. So at least 15 mins that I won't get back
It was worth the 15 minutes though for the superior information ! I only spent a couple looking at the ITF profile.

It might not have been exactly 15 mins as I see CDs post was the last on the page as I was browsing it, so could have been nearer 10, but certainly a lot of effort for a player I wasn't even aware of before I saw the fixture yesterday, haha.

Seems to have been 2-0* for ages, must have been a fair few deuces in this 3rd game.

the addict · Tennis legend

Yes, that was a twenty point game. Alice now up a double break, with an economical 13 services points in her two games, as opposed to 36 for her opponent.
And as I type, its *5-0 with a break to love.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Looks like the bookies were severely overrating Arakawa at the moment biggrin , a couple of tight games on the Japanese players serve, but *5-0 Alice.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Opponent threatened a mini comeback in that set, won 2 games in a row, and had *15-40 on Alice's serve, but Alice held to take the first set 6-2.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Extremely happy to donate that 10p to the bucket in the sky

Alice takes the first set 6-2

(However, beware the second set rebound..... especially in women's tennis ....... worth thinking about

)

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

If I rated Alice a bit more, then I might have been tempted by that best price 2.50 (6/4) as WH is one of the sites I do have. Hopefully she can complete the job, as it will be a big boost to her to potentially put out the top seed.

-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Thursday 27th of May 2021 09:54:13 AM

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

I've always liked and rated Alice (insofar as she was the only one I saw at the NTC at some quali rounds of an ITF event, 4 or 5 years ago, who looked like she stood a chance of getting ranked - which pretty much turned out to be right)

But getting a match like this finished is a big ask, no matter how poor the other woman's recent form has been

I think the chances of a AH rebound in the second set are pretty high.

Although I'm seriously hoping not........

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Yeah, it does seem Arakawa is coming back into it, as would probably have been expected. Alice has had to save a few BPs in her last few service games, including being broken towards the end of the first set, and Arakawa looks well on her way to a third successive comfortable hold.

But still on serve in the early stages of the second.

emmsie69 · Top national player

Well the toilet break worked,