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Post Info TOPIC: Week 6 - Australian Open, Melbourne, Australia Hard


Futures level

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RE: Week 6 - Australian Open, Melbourne, Australia Hard


JonH comes home wrote:

Of the Brits, TA reckons jo will reach round 3 and heather will get through one round.

www.tennisabstract.com/current/2021AustralianOpenWomenForecast.html


 That remains to be seen but in her whole GS singles  career Jo has never lost in the 3rd round. More likely to  be 1st or 2nd round and if not that last 8 or better. 



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ROSAMUND wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:

Of the Brits, TA reckons jo will reach round 3 and heather will get through one round.

www.tennisabstract.com/current/2021AustralianOpenWomenForecast.html


 That remains to be seen but in her whole GS singles  career Jo has never lost in the 3rd round. More likely to  be 1st or 2nd round and if not that last 8 or better. 


 In which case, its a dead cert this will be the first time!



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JonH comes home wrote:

Of the Brits, TA reckons jo will reach round 3 and heather will get through one round.

www.tennisabstract.com/current/2021AustralianOpenWomenForecast.html


 Surely Katie's chances are more like 50/50 if she plays as well as she did this week?



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dodrade wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:

Of the Brits, TA reckons jo will reach round 3 and heather will get through one round.

www.tennisabstract.com/current/2021AustralianOpenWomenForecast.html


 Surely Katie's chances are more like 50/50 if she plays as well as she did this week?


 I suspect TA is limited as to how it deals with a resurgence in form. Remember it is not a predictor as such but an analytical tool, crunching data. Though Dasha too is a difficult player to analyse, and has been showing better form with some good ranking wins latterly last year and into this. Both are potentially way way better than their rankings and however arrived at, I think 63.5% Dasha may be quite reasonable.

The bet365 betting odds are actually even more weighted to Dasha. Kasatkina 1/3, Bou!ter 12/5, so some may feel like having a punt. 



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Tennis on telly
@tennisontelly
Katie Boulter will play at the Australian Open on Monday. Heather Watson, Francesca Jones, Johanna Konta, and Dan Evans vs Cameron Norrie will all be on Tuesday. All matches will be on Eurosport.
6:57 PM · Feb 6, 2021·Twitter for Android

Related: eurosport 99p offer: twitter.com/tennisontelly/status/1357776847547871235

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One thing that has been predictable about the women in the AO  in recent years  is that there will be a an unseeded semi finalist.Starting in 2015 we have had Keys, JoKo, Lucic and Vanderweghe in 2017, Mertens, Collins and Muguruza. Muguruza is the only one to reach the final. 



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If you look at British women's performances in the GSlams  since Wimbledon 2017, taking out Jo's 3 last 8 performances of 2019, Jo's other  performances are only a par with either Harriet or Heather.Both Harriet and Heather have won 3 matches. Whilst Jo has won 4 matches, one was against Heather so 3 against  foreign oppostion. I fear basically we have been generally over optimistic about what we hope Jo will achieve,



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ROSAMUND wrote:

If you look at British women's performances in the GSlams  since Wimbledon 2017, taking out Jo's 3 last 8 performances of 2019, Jo's other  performances are only a par with either Harriet or Heather.Both Harriet and Heather have won 3 matches. Whilst Jo has won 4 matches, one was against Heather so 3 against  foreign oppostion. I fear basically we have been generally over optimistic about what we hope Jo will achieve,


 Is it more that joko normal level is on a par but she is streaky and now and then does go beyond the others? 



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JonH comes home wrote:
ROSAMUND wrote:

If you look at British women's performances in the GSlams  since Wimbledon 2017, taking out Jo's 3 last 8 performances of 2019, Jo's other  performances are only a par with either Harriet or Heather.Both Harriet and Heather have won 3 matches. Whilst Jo has won 4 matches, one was against Heather so 3 against  foreign oppostion. I fear basically we have been generally over optimistic about what we hope Jo will achieve,


 Is it more that joko normal level is on a par but she is streaky and now and then does go beyond the others? 


 Heather and Harriet have a much more conventional style than Jo. Jo is a risk taker, which like anything else in this world get its rewards but needs to be restrained (why Jo's UFE's are so high). Jo's success relies heavily on remaining focussed, hence all her talk of the process. She gets distracted and her level noticeably drops. Jo's state of mind is key.

Secondly, Jo is essentially a baseline specialist. She takes the ball early, likes pace and is better than average at hitting her spots but this makes her vulnerable to the likes of Jabeur and Strycova. We don't often get spin rate stats in WTA matches but was surprised to see Jo's where significantly higher than her opponents. She does use a racket similar to Rafa's I suppose.

Jo also has a chess like brain when it comes to setting up points and recognising patterns of play. Unfortunately, she too often messes up the final shot. If she could fix that she would be top 10 for sure but I fear it may be too late now.

Personally, win or lose, I find her a joy to watch as I do with Dan and Andy. I've yet to see that special uniqueness in any of the other Brits.

As for the AO, I too am nervous about Juvan but the quarantine gap between qualifying and R1 might work in Jo's favour compared to previous similar encounters. A good crowd would help Jo too but I'm not optimistic there.



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JonH comes home wrote:
ROSAMUND wrote:

If you look at British women's performances in the GSlams  since Wimbledon 2017, taking out Jo's 3 last 8 performances of 2019, Jo's other  performances are only a par with either Harriet or Heather.Both Harriet and Heather have won 3 matches. Whilst Jo has won 4 matches, one was against Heather so 3 against  foreign oppostion. I fear basically we have been generally over optimistic about what we hope Jo will achieve,


 Is it more that joko normal level is on a par but she is streaky and now and then does go beyond the others? 


 Would agree with that comment.  Sufficiently  streaky at her best  to reach 3 grand slam  semi   finals. 



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Simon Briggs has an interview with Fran Jones in the Telegraph. Two  players  mentioned as being really friendly when they met her are  Timea Bacsinzsky  and Sloane Stephens.



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ROSAMUND wrote:

Simon Briggs has an interview with Fran Jones in the Telegraph. Two  players  mentioned as being really friendly when they met her are  Timea Bacsinzsky  and Sloane Stephens.


 Fran reminds me a little bit of Serena, very intimidating with a heavy shot. Wouldn't want to face her across any sort of court, tennis or law! Sloane is definitely one of the good guys off court and wasn't Timea once coached by Zavialoff, Jo's current coach? Small world.



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Fran  and Serbia's Olga Danilovic are the only 2 players making their debut in a womens Grand Slam singles main draw.. This is a lower number than usual. Venus Williams is playing in her 88th GrandSlam singles.  Alize Cornet is playing in her 56th consecutive Grand Slam singles. The womens  record is 62 by Ai Sugiyama.  Russian Valeria Savinykh is playing in the main draw of a Grand Slam  for the 1st time since making the 3rd round of the 2013 AO. This has been noticed by somebody but Rebecca Marino is also playing in the main draw of a GS  for the 1st time since the 2013 AO. 



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I thought Olivia Gadecki had a MDWC, and thus, would be making her main draw debut as well, but I see she lost in quals. There are 8 Aussie MDWC's though and that must be the first time in ages that the full 8 have all gone to players from the same country, what with the usual reciprocal agreement between the 3 overseas slams, and Wimbledon usually handing them back. Wang Xiyu (China) originally had the Asian-Pacific MDWC but she withdrew with Covid a couple of weeks ago, and that one must have been re-allocated to a local player.

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I'm looking forward to this starting now. I've not been as bothered with the 3 warm up events for some reason, but I'm off work now until the second Tuesday and have just re-subscribed to the Eurosport Player for a bargain £0.99 for the month.

I'm not sure how I plan to watch it though. I doubt I'll be staying up through the night to watch live, I'll probably record all the ES 1 and 2 programmes, get up earlier at say 6am, and work through all the recordings, and watch the lesser court matches that I'm interested in on the Player.

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