Week 43 - ATP 500 - Erste Bank Open, Vienna, Austria (indoor hard)

Stircrazy · Tennis legend

Week 43 - ATP 500 - Erste Bank Open, Vienna, Austria (indoor hard)

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Stircrazy wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
Singles Forecast
Archived: R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Current
Probable matchups: F

Player F W
(LL)Lorenzo Sonego (ITA) 25.2% 2.9%
(SE)Daniel Evans (GBR) 74.8% 20.0%
(PR)Kevin Anderson (RSA) 23.8% 14.3%
(5)Andrey Rublev (RUS) 76.2% 62.8%

Tennis Abstract numbers - reckon it is nailed on for Rublev NOT to win this event then!!
For those not familiar, TA uses a formula based on quality and surface related stats to predict winners in matches and events. At the SF stage, he predicts Dan and Rublev are circa 75% chances to win their semis. He predicts Rublev is in turn favourite to win the event, 62.8% likely.
That's absolute gibberish, as far as I'm concerned. Tells me nothing that I actually understand!

Ha, basically, they rate that on form, surface and given the match ups, Dan and Rublev should win and be reasonably clear favourites to do so. Rublev should win the event as a whole.

Mind you, Djoko was 88% favourite to win before today, so it isnt fool proof!

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
JonH comes home wrote:
As an aside, anyone know how the Race would look currently if only 2020 results were included? Dan was doing well before lockdown, 12th or so I recall, would he still be top 20? Any ideas who the qualifiers for O2 would be based on 2020 only?
I don't know but I think i read mention of there being a site keeping count of a purely 2020 race.
I did wonder if Dan earlier temporarily lost some motivation when they changed the race to tie in with the rankings in including 2019 points. He seemed to come out of lockdown well then lost his way for a bit.

I wondered that also - he went into lockdown 11th in the Race (would have been 10th in effect with Federer out of action), so v close. Still think ATP missed a trick on that, mainly as a slightly shaken up race would have been good for new faces in the field eg dan and also it would be much more interesting now - a la doubles which is close and more exciting than the singles race

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Looking at doubles race, only those pairs in places 5 to 10 are playing in Paris, so 4 out of those 6 will qualify. Jamie and Neal look good, a win Sunday will be massive as Purcell /Saville and Kubot / Melo are still both also playing this week - Jamie and Neal versus Kubot and Melo will possibly be decisive. Kubot and Melo have to get through Krawietz and Mies though, as would Jamie and Neal in the final

stevemcqueen · Futures qualifying

I'm pretty sure that the 180 ranking points Dan has won so far this week equals his second biggest haul of his career. He won more at the ATP Cup in Australia at the end of last year and he also won 180 for getting to the semis in Dubai where he lost to Stefanos. Obviously, he has the opportunity to win more today.

So, will Sonego be able to play anywhere close to the level that saw him trounce an under par Djokovic? The commentators mentioned that in terms of games won, it was the worst loss of his career. Players can sometimes have trouble backing up a huge win. The adrenaline takes it out of you and his legs will be sore. I know it was only a short match, but his levels of effort will have been turned up to 11.

Anyway, it should be a great spectacle. Dan is second match on, with play starting at 14:00 local.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

stevemcqueen wrote:
I'm pretty sure that the 180 ranking points Dan has won so far this week equals his second biggest haul of his career. He won more at the ATP Cup in Australia at the end of last year and he also won 180 for getting to the semis in Dubai where he lost to Stefanos. Obviously, he has the opportunity to win more today.
So, will Sonego be able to play anywhere close to the level that saw him trounce an under par Djokovic? The commentators mentioned that in terms of games won, it was the worst loss of his career. Players can sometimes have trouble backing up a huge win. The adrenaline takes it out of you and his legs will be sore. I know it was only a short match, but his levels of effort will have been turned up to 11.
Anyway, it should be a great spectacle. Dan is second match on, with play starting at 14:00 local.

Looking forward to this for sure !

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

JonH comes home wrote:
twitter.com/TennisTV/status/1322286415137415169

Wow, dan having an impressive season. Shame about the slams . But rest v impressive.

Even better

https://twitter.com/tumcarayol/status/1322306089069719552

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Rublev into final

stevemcqueen · Futures qualifying

Sonego is really bossing this, he is looking ominously good. He leads 3-0 with a single break. Dan has won only 2 points so far.

Stircrazy · Tennis legend

stevemcqueen wrote:
So, will Sonego be able to play anywhere close to the level that saw him trounce an under par Djokovic? The commentators mentioned that in terms of games won, it was the worst loss of his career. Players can sometimes have trouble backing up a huge win. The adrenaline takes it out of you and his legs will be sore. I know it was only a short match, but his levels of effort will have been turned up to 11.

No obvious sign of that at the moment: first set down the pan by 3-6. hmm

Stircrazy · Tennis legend

And Dan dips out at the semi-final stage again:

SF: (LL) Lorenzo Sonego (ITA) WR 42 defeated (SE) Daniel Evans WR 33 by 3 & 4 cry

stevemcqueen · Futures qualifying

Can somebody please explain to my why Sonego is not top 10? And how did he manage to lose in qualies? Today, he was very, very good.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Shame for Dan but Sonego played such a good, attractive game of tennis that you couldn't help revel in it and wish him well.

Also, I know that all the tennis media interest in Italy is on Sinner and Mussetti etc., the exciting newbies, with a little left over for Fognini and ol' favourites.

So players like Sonego get ignored - great to see him have his moment

DelayedReaction · Lower Club Player

Very tough today, still a great week.

Toby · Lower Club Player

Everything clicked for him at the right time, happens sometimes. His next tournament will be as interesting as his match with Rublev; see if he goes on from here or it's a flash in the pan; hopefully the former, nice all court game.