I notice cases seem to be on the rise again in Spain - nearly 39k today. Hope its not too bad where you are Bob.
Doing KO here thanks. Fairly small town and almost everybody is following the rules. In the town (approx 20k pop.) we peaked a couple of weeks ago at positive tests in the previous 14 days. This number is down to 34 now and falling. We are still required to wear masks in any indoor situation but other than that, life is going on normally other than travel restrictions.
Having said all that, the new more transmissable variant is now in Spain and rumours are that the government are considering an early lock down to avoid spread, but we hear lots of rumours and many of them are just that.
Thank for asking.
Great to see the Spanish are learning the lesson we have been taught re the new variant. It was much harder to get the ball rolling second time. Stay safe and keep exercising
Indeed, just like the UK government learned from the Italian and Spanish experiences of the first variant so acted early to get ahead of the game. Err not!!!
To effectively follow their curve back last spring rather than do better remains tragic.
Summarising the last 6 weeks' UK figures including the latest week to Friday, as to be expected deaths are markedly up again and unfortunately new cases continue to also rise with Friday's 68,053 figure being the highest single day's report yet.
28/11 - 04/12 : new cases 101,131, deaths 3,066 05/12 - 11/12 : new cases 119,022, deaths 2,890 12/12 - 18/12 : new cases 161,713, deaths 3,034 19/12 - 25/12 : new cases 244,145, deaths 3,654 26/12 - 01/01 : new cases 320,753, deaths 3.930 02/01 - 08/01 : new cases 415,408, deaths 5,708
And so indeed for last week reported new UK cases are down, but wavering? Deaths continue upwards for now.
Wondering how all of these people are catching Corona? The government should be gathering data from those infected as understanding how/where/why would help stop the spread.
Eg. do they work in a public facing role, regularly use public transport, fail to wear a mask, or wipe down a trolley, or sanitise their hands when shopping (seen many people not doing at least two of these), illegally meet up with family living in a different household etc
I think its more a question of how they caught COVID the majority of positive tests are still in those who are symptomatic so probably reflects the contacts of those who caught it over Christmas & new year before a significant proportion of the population realised lockdown meant lockdown. The drop in number of new cases makes me cautiously optimistic the message has got through.
From personal experience teenagers are very hard to control unless the message is crystal clear, zero flexibility or room for misinterpretation, this was poorly done from central government. Personally very grateful to the ITU consultant at the Whittington and his outburst below helped get the message through.
Genuinely feel the message has to be that strong. It is as advertised much more infective (I disagree with Prof Montgomery) with many more medical staff off with COVID or self isolating. First time round I spoke to many people (close to 50 a week) very few had it, this time generally come across a couple who have had a positive test & symptomatic during each session usually caught from a family member.
I think the realisation of the anticipated high levels of deaths through the rest of January and into February will keep everybody focused, no room for relaxation.
-- Edited by Oakland2002 on Saturday 16th of January 2021 10:43:52 PM
In covid deaths per capita there were 3 countries ( at least with populations of over a million ) with reported deaths of over 100 per million last week ( Saturday to Friday ) - ie. over 1 in 10,000 in just a week. The UK was in between the contingent parts of the old Czechoslovakia.
1. Czech Rep. 116 per million 2. UK 110 ( 7462 in 68.08 million ) 3. Slovakia 105
Excess deaths are tailing off a product of COVID having polished off a significant proportion of the most vulnerable and social distancing, hand hygiene mitigating flu rates?
An article about COVID deaths in the US, they do in fact appear to rename COVID 19 deaths, and there is a corresponding drop in all the other main causes of death. Article remains in the internet archive as it was pulled from public use shortly after putting it up, says loads really!
An article about COVID deaths in the US, they do in fact appear to rename COVID 19 deaths, and there is a corresponding drop in all the other main causes of death. Article remains in the internet archive as it was pulled from public use shortly after putting it up, says loads really!
Yup. And the additional 400,000 deaths over other years are just "unexplained". Definitely nothing to do with Covid.
The article was definitely withdrawn because of a cover up as it is indisputably the truth, and nothing at all to do with it being wrong. From the "internet archive" linked:
Spoiler
Editors Note: After The News-Letter published this article on Nov. 22, it was brought to our attention that our coverage of Genevieve Briands presentation COVID-19 Deaths: A Look at U.S. Data has been used to support dangerous inaccuracies that minimize the impact of the pandemic.
We decided on Nov. 26 to retract this article to stop the spread of misinformation, as we noted on social media. However, it is our responsibility as journalists to provide a historical record. We have chosen to take down the article from our website, but it is available here as a PDF.
In accordance with our standards for transparency, we are sharing with our readers how we came to this decision. The News-Letter is an editorially and financially independent, student-run publication. Our articles and content are not endorsed by the University or the School of Medicine, and our decision to retract this article was made independently.
Briands study should not be used exclusively in understanding the impact of COVID-19, but should be taken in context with the countless other data published by Hopkins, the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
As assistant director for the Masters in Applied Economics program at Hopkins, Briand is neither a medical professional nor a disease researcher. At her talk, she herself stated that more research and data are needed to understand the effects of COVID-19 in the U.S.
Briand was quoted in the article as saying, All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers. This claim is incorrect and does not take into account the spike in raw death count from all causes compared to previous years. According to the CDC, there have been almost 300,000 excess deaths due to COVID-19. Additionally, Briand presented data of total U.S. deaths in comparison to COVID-19-related deaths as a proportion percentage, which trivializes the repercussions of the pandemic. This evidence does not disprove the severity of COVID-19; an increase in excess deaths is not represented in these proportionalities because they are offered as percentages, not raw numbers.
Briand also claimed in her analysis that deaths due to heart diseases, respiratory diseases, influenza and pneumonia may be incorrectly categorized as COVID-19-related deaths. However, COVID-19 disproportionately affects those with preexisting conditions, so those with those underlying conditions are statistically more likely to be severely affected and die from the virus.
Because of these inaccuracies and our failure to provide additional information about the effects of COVID-19, The News-Letter decided to retract this article. It is our duty as a publication to combat the spread of misinformation and to enhance our fact-checking process. We apologize to our readers.
-- As a general principle, I would suggest not getting ones view of the news from sites with a subhead "Revealing Mystery Babylon". From elsewhere on the site:
God has put it clearly on my heart that it is not enough for me & my family to not take the vaccine. He wants me to continue to share the damaging effects of this vaccine with not only His people but also non-Believers. The complexity and weight of this responsibility can feel difficult at times but I believe ALL of us must try to help others gain wisdom about this
-- Edited by christ on Monday 18th of January 2021 03:54:04 PM
Numbers are starting to drop - lockdown effect. Still very high though.
Death rates will continue to rise probably for a month or more, really only now looking at the sickest patients having had a months worth of ITU.
Those who die who've had a month's worth of ITU, though, won't show up on the covid figures - it's only the people who die within 28 days of the test
(They'll be in the general mortality figures, of course)
They will of course count as COVID deaths as ITU mortality rates are also recorded an audited as is HES data etc... COVID will be the cause of death recorded on part I of their death certificate so there will be absolute clarity in time but it is a ironic that the data released daily is distorted in this way.