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Post Info TOPIC: Coronavirus - general, non tennis related


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Coronavirus - general, non tennis related


Numbers by test date seen to be falling in all areas of the UK, so looks like the peak was around a week ago.
London seems to be falling very quickly.

Liverpool on the other hand may be the exception and may not be dropping yet..

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My 92 year-old father has just been notified - his jab is at his doctor's surgery on Sunday, so signs of improvement in delivery.

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paulisi wrote:

Numbers by test date seen to be falling in all areas of the UK, so looks like the peak was around a week ago.
London seems to be falling very quickly.

Liverpool on the other hand may be the exception and may not be dropping yet..


Liverpool had the mass testing not so long ago and rates dropped substantially at that time.  Do you think the reason Liverpool is not dropping now is because it is starting from a lower base ?



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paulisi wrote:

Numbers by test date seen to be falling in all areas of the UK, so looks like the peak was around a week ago.
London seems to be falling very quickly.

Liverpool on the other hand may be the exception and may not be dropping yet..


I don't see test rate as at all the useful indicator.

For confirmed positive infection rates, the picture is indeterminately mixed.
Take for example latest figures from Berkshire (where my niece is), updated for 11th January: 4 down, three up.

1rlabXE.png

 

And from Beds, Herts & Bucks Quote: "The latest statistics show the rate of infection in Broxbourne in Hertfordshire was 1,216.1 cases per 100,000 people ...  But the district saw its case rates fall week on week, as did most of the council districts in Hertfordshire.

But, In "Bedfordshire and Buckinghamshire, only Wycombe, Luton and Bedford had a rise in case rates."
Lots of falls at the district level, but the major towns with the largest populations still rising

But, from the same article, even that is not a uniform picture. In the neighbouring regions: Cambs, the opposite is true with rural areas rising and suburbs slowing, and Northants has most areas rising regardless of density: "In Cambridgeshire, only Cambridge had a fall in week-on-week case rates, while in Northamptonshire only South Northamptonshire saw a decrease."

Same is true in most counties/regions: overly broad interpretations are unhelpful, and things are much more mixed at the local level.

Any false word of improvement leads to complacency and just ensures the government feels that it must ultimately make measures last longer and/or  be more severe, or be reimposed.

All data comes from the 11 January UK government update, via the BBC.



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Best and most relevant indicators are hospital admissions & then number of intensive care beds filled. The later take some time to empty.

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Over the UK as a whole factually it does look as if reported new cases this week will show a fall, having just had 2 days back under 50,000. But while I have not looked into it myself, I can quite believe a pretty wide variation regionally and I see that the Scottish fiigure looks like it will show a fairly signigicant fall.

All the reported new cases figures come a few weeks into retightened restrictions so some turn down really had to start happening or it would be even more alarming. There must though be some way to go before any relaxations in restrictions, not until we have a much clearer widespread sustained drop in infection rates. The reported new cases figures are a very much better week to week comparative figure than they were in the early days, with clearly very much more extensive testing.

For now the sad lag figure of deaths continues to rise in the UK as a whole on a week to week increase basis, and indeed as Oakland says hospital admissions and intensive care bed figures are still rising, including in Scotland. 

The message indeed has to remain that things are still very bad and everyone should be continuing to play their part by doing the right things.



-- Edited by indiana on Tuesday 12th of January 2021 08:10:21 PM

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One of the big stories of the day is that food packs being given to school children (who would normally get free school meals) while they are on lock down. A company called Chartwells, was giving out packs which were supposed to be equivalent to the £30 pound voucher that people were given until recently.

One of the packs given was valued (using Aldi prices) at just £5.22 Here is what this person was given for 10 days supplies.

https://twitter.com/RoadsideMum/status/1348646428084760576

It should be noted that Chartwells have since claimed that this was only 5 days of supply but the recipient has claimed that she has it in writing from Chartwells that this was for 10 days and has passed that letter on to the press.

Our one and only Topemp has been out doing his own investigation which can be seen here.

https://twitter.com/tobyperkinsmp/status/1349033910534078465

It is utterly disgusting that these distribution companies are profiting while the children they are supposed to be helping are going hungry.



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Bob in Spain wrote:

One of the big stories of the day is that food packs being given to school children (who would normally get free school meals) while they are on lock down. A company called Chartwells, was giving out packs which were supposed to be equivalent to the £30 pound voucher that people were given until recently.

One of the packs given was valued (using Aldi prices) at just £5.22 Here is what this person was given for 10 days supplies.

https://twitter.com/RoadsideMum/status/1348646428084760576

It should be noted that Chartwells have since claimed that this was only 5 days of supply but the recipient has claimed that she has it in writing from Chartwells that this was for 10 days and has passed that letter on to the press.

Our one and only Topemp has been out doing his own investigation which can be seen here.

https://twitter.com/tobyperkinsmp/status/1349033910534078465

It is utterly disgusting that these distribution companies are profiting while the children they are supposed to be helping are going hungry.


 Marcus Rashford is on the case now too



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1500 deaths today, ITUs almost full and more capacity needed (despite enormous expansion last time).

It was interesting to hear Han**** being asked repeatedly whether this was the peak due to a slight decrease in the number of positive tests, in terms of pressure on NHS services at best we are 2 weeks away from the maximal number of ITU admissions. Only really now are units in the south where the prevalence is highest beginning to have to do significant numbers of tracheostomies to get people off ventilators. So the bulge of people getting really sick and taking 3 weeks or more to get out of ITU has only just really started. The next 3 weeks are going to be a very rough ride.




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Looking at today's data there is a small increase in positive tests from tests 11th Jan and onwards, but general downward trend from last week.
Liverpool seems to have peaked. No idea for the big spike other than festive and new year gatherings.

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I notice cases seem to be on the rise again in Spain - nearly 39k today. Hope its not too bad where you are Bob.

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paulisi wrote:

Looking at today's data there is a small increase in positive tests from tests 11th Jan and onwards, but general downward trend from last week.
Liverpool seems to have peaked. No idea for the big spike other than festive and new year gatherings.


 Definite spike again from tests from 11th onwards and it is across the board. No idea why as it dropped after the NYE spike.



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brittak wrote:

I notice cases seem to be on the rise again in Spain - nearly 39k today. Hope its not too bad where you are Bob.


Doing KO here thanks. Fairly small town and almost everybody is following the rules. In the town (approx 20k pop.) we peaked a couple of weeks ago at positive tests in the previous 14 days. This number is down to 34 now and falling.  We are still required to wear masks in any indoor situation but other than that, life is going on normally other than travel restrictions.

Having said all that, the new more transmissable variant is now in Spain and rumours are that the government are considering an early lock down to avoid spread, but we hear lots of rumours and many of them are just that.

Thank for asking.



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paulisi wrote:
paulisi wrote:

Looking at today's data there is a small increase in positive tests from tests 11th Jan and onwards, but general downward trend from last week.
Liverpool seems to have peaked. No idea for the big spike other than festive and new year gatherings.


 Definite spike again from tests from 11th onwards and it is across the board. No idea why as it dropped after the NYE spike.


 Yes, whilst the UK reported new case total will be a fair bit down in the week to Friday the second half of the week has seean daily increases. Very important to see this figure falling over the next couple of weeks to give a clearer pointer that we are nationally past the latest spike in infections. 



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Bob in Spain wrote:
brittak wrote:

I notice cases seem to be on the rise again in Spain - nearly 39k today. Hope its not too bad where you are Bob.


Doing KO here thanks. Fairly small town and almost everybody is following the rules. In the town (approx 20k pop.) we peaked a couple of weeks ago at positive tests in the previous 14 days. This number is down to 34 now and falling.  We are still required to wear masks in any indoor situation but other than that, life is going on normally other than travel restrictions.

Having said all that, the new more transmissable variant is now in Spain and rumours are that the government are considering an early lock down to avoid spread, but we hear lots of rumours and many of them are just that.

Thank for asking.


Great to see the Spanish are learning the lesson we have been taught re the new variant. It was much harder to get the ball rolling second time. Stay safe and keep exercising 



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