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Post Info TOPIC: Week 7 - ITF (W25) Jodhpur, India Hard


Satellite level

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RE: Week 7 - ITF (W25) Jodhpur, India Hard


DF wrote:

Jodie wins 6-1 6-2


 Always good to start with a straightforward win. But it is quite alarming how weak this draw is compared with Glasgow (or Kyoto for that matter).



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R1: JONES, Francesca (GBR) 3 335 def DJAKOVIC, Mihaela (SRB) 974 4-6 6-2 6-3
R1: BURRAGE, Jodie Anna (GBR) 2 306 def SADIQ, Soha (IND) Q UNR 6-1 6-2

R2: JONES, Francesca (GBR) 3 335 v OZEKI, Michika (JPN) 516 6-1
R2: BURRAGE, Jodie Anna (GBR) 2 306 v SAMA, Sathwika (IND) 892 CH=885 25/11/19

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Babfive wrote:
DF wrote:

Jodie wins 6-1 6-2


 Always good to start with a straightforward win. But it is quite alarming how weak this draw is compared with Glasgow (or Kyoto for that matter).


But Kyoto itself is incredibly weak for a W60. If you look at Cairo W60 this week, the 17th entrant on the acceptance list is 198, so the vast majority are top 200 players, yet in Japan, there's only 2 top 200 players, and even Tara at 461 got in directly, but the same amount of points are on the line.

 

Also, consider 13 of the top 20 are local players, and Japan put on so many ITF events last year, which are often weak, and are predominantly made up of local players, allowing easier points to be made. E.g. Shimizu at 286 should really be forecasted to make the QF here and pick up 18 points, whereas in Glasgow, her current ranking would be touch and go to even make the main draw, so it's likely to be even weaker than it looks on paper, if a lot of these players picked up cheaper points last year.

 



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Ace Ventura wrote:
Babfive wrote:
DF wrote:

Jodie wins 6-1 6-2


 Always good to start with a straightforward win. But it is quite alarming how weak this draw is compared with Glasgow (or Kyoto for that matter).


But Kyoto itself is incredibly weak for a W60. If you look at Cairo W60 this week, the 17th entrant on the acceptance list is 198, so the vast majority are top 200 players, yet in Japan, there's only 2 top 200 players, and even Tara at 461 got in directly, but the same amount of points are on the line.

 

Also, consider 13 of the top 20 are local players, and Japan put on so many ITF events last year, which are often weak, and are predominantly made up of local players, allowing easier points to be made. E.g. Shimizu at 286 should really be forecasted to make the QF here and pick up 18 points, whereas in Glasgow, her current ranking would be touch and go to even make the main draw, so it's likely to be even weaker than it looks on paper, if a lot of these players picked up cheaper points last year.

 


Those charts that someone used to produce comparing levels in each location based on their entire main draw fields pretty definitively put this old myth about soft Asian $25-60K's (and mostly at all levels) to bed based on the evidence. Just availability heuristic thinking meets a received opinion. Got to say I also always presumed it was true too, based on I don't really know what. But, the data, over several years, disproved it.

I wonder if anyone somewhere is still doing this?



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Status Quo wrote:
Ace Ventura wrote:
Babfive wrote:
DF wrote:

Jodie wins 6-1 6-2


 Always good to start with a straightforward win. But it is quite alarming how weak this draw is compared with Glasgow (or Kyoto for that matter).


But Kyoto itself is incredibly weak for a W60. If you look at Cairo W60 this week, the 17th entrant on the acceptance list is 198, so the vast majority are top 200 players, yet in Japan, there's only 2 top 200 players, and even Tara at 461 got in directly, but the same amount of points are on the line.

 

Also, consider 13 of the top 20 are local players, and Japan put on so many ITF events last year, which are often weak, and are predominantly made up of local players, allowing easier points to be made. E.g. Shimizu at 286 should really be forecasted to make the QF here and pick up 18 points, whereas in Glasgow, her current ranking would be touch and go to even make the main draw, so it's likely to be even weaker than it looks on paper, if a lot of these players picked up cheaper points last year.

 


Those charts that someone used to produce comparing levels in each location based on their entire main draw fields pretty definitively put this old myth about soft Asian $25-60K's (and mostly at all levels) to bed based on the evidence. Just availability heuristic thinking meets a received opinion. Got to say I also always presumed it was true too, based on I don't really know what. But, the data, over several years, disproved it.

I wonder if anyone somewhere is still doing this?


 

I've only really extensively followed the ITF circuit since around mid-late 2017, so can't really say much before then, but I do/did perceive them to be generally weaker (since then anyway), and as someone who likes data, I'd be interested to see those charts.

 

I guess there's more that needs to be factored in, like amount of events in a particular country, general location of the player at the event, and I guess perception and how these players do in slam quallies etc. So it will be difficult to get a full picture review if that makes sense.

 

But anyway, whether it's particularly down to the coronavirus, or if it's just down to geography/time of season, this Japan W60 is particularly weak.

 

Edit- by 'general location' I meant nationality, which Michael also referred to in better detail.

 



-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Wednesday 19th of February 2020 12:10:18 PM

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Status Quo wrote:
Ace Ventura wrote:
Babfive wrote:
DF wrote:

Jodie wins 6-1 6-2


 Always good to start with a straightforward win. But it is quite alarming how weak this draw is compared with Glasgow (or Kyoto for that matter).


But Kyoto itself is incredibly weak for a W60. If you look at Cairo W60 this week, the 17th entrant on the acceptance list is 198, so the vast majority are top 200 players, yet in Japan, there's only 2 top 200 players, and even Tara at 461 got in directly, but the same amount of points are on the line.

 

Also, consider 13 of the top 20 are local players, and Japan put on so many ITF events last year, which are often weak, and are predominantly made up of local players, allowing easier points to be made. E.g. Shimizu at 286 should really be forecasted to make the QF here and pick up 18 points, whereas in Glasgow, her current ranking would be touch and go to even make the main draw, so it's likely to be even weaker than it looks on paper, if a lot of these players picked up cheaper points last year.

 


Those charts that someone used to produce comparing levels in each location based on their entire main draw fields pretty definitively put this old myth about soft Asian $25-60K's (and mostly at all levels) to bed based on the evidence. Just availability heuristic thinking meets a received opinion. Got to say I also always presumed it was true too, based on I don't really know what. But, the data, over several years, disproved it.

I wonder if anyone somewhere is still doing this?


It was blob/ AliBlahBlah that did the charts, and the charts DID show there was variance between regions. I will go back later and see if I can find a few from around this time of the year in early 2018, which is when blob did them. I also think Ace is being very specific to this week and is not claiming to extrapolate a wider trend necessarily. However I think he is correct, and maybe there has been a shift in the events that players are going to. I have also noticed that the trend in the Japanese tournaments over the last 6 months or so has been to a greater percentage of Japanese only players, similar to what has happened in Australia too this year. I believe that blobs stats showed that the early tournaments in Europe WERE more competitive than the Asian ones, with the American ones also being competitive. Not necessarily always, and the US may be an exception, but I think a lot can be deduced by looking at the range of nationalities attending a tournament, since the more a tournament is single country focused, the weaker generally are the fields, simply because of the reduced diversity of players the field is drawing from.  

And the stats that Ace is referring to this week are a real analysis of this week's fields, with the proviso that has also been made that there is only one W25 tournament in europe this week, but next week there will be 3, and so it can be expected there will be some diluting of the fields.



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Here's an example of those charts - may not be the best example, just the first example I found
I've lost the line to the online version where you could play around with the model yourself in real time



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Status Quo wrote:

Here's an example of those charts - may not be the best example, just the first example I found
I've lost the line to the online version where you could play around with the model yourself in real time


Thanks SQ, I'll give those a good look later.

I do agree with a lot of what Michael said just before, but It's always nice to see a good snapshot of data.



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The talk about Blob and reminds me how much I miss him / her and their interesting posts and charts. It was dreadful the way they got driven away and another example of the nasty side of social media which is so much in the news at the moment.

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Its so important to recognise that social media is just a bunch of strangers interacting and that having a spat is meaningless in the context of real life.  I have a habit of typing something on forums and then never engaging again, which I'm sure is infuriating for most people but it prevents me from getting too invested in a row with someone who,  if I walked past them 20 times in a day, would still never know who they were.  I'm not fussed at all about what a bunch of strangers think of me and my opinions its nice to engage and share viewpoints but I'd never get worked up about it as there is always the option of coming away for a day or two.



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emmsie69 wrote:

Its so important to recognise that social media is just a bunch of strangers interacting and that having a spat is meaningless in the context of real life.  I have a habit of typing something on forums and then never engaging again, which I'm sure is infuriating for most people but it prevents me from getting too invested in a row with someone who,  if I walked past them 20 times in a day, would still never know who they were.  I'm not fussed at all about what a bunch of strangers think of me and my opinions its nice to engage and share viewpoints but I'd never get worked up about it as there is always the option of coming away for a day or two.


Yes you're right emmsie and your attitude is a wise one... However different people invest different amounts into various social media outlets, and find it much harder to simply drop something and then walk away and not care how it's received or what reaction they get. That requires a lot of confidence and/ or a strong will. Blob was one of those that used to invest heavily, too much so, and so his approach was almost diametrically the opposite to what you are recommending.. In short, he is/was the type of person who would get hurt. 

Personally I engage with very few social media fora but do here since for the most part the behaviour is civil and courteous, even when people have diverging views, quite refreshing in its way considering what one sees on a daily basis these days not only elsewhere in social media but in the political sphere too. 



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Jodie takes the first set 6-0 in 19 minutes and there follows a toilet break. Really? confuse



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DF


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Babfive wrote:

Jodie takes the first set 6-0 in 19 minutes and there follows a toilet break. Really? confuse


 I would imagine that the Indian girl wanted a break and it worked as she started the second set 2-0



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DF


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Jodie being held in the second set 5-5

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Yes indeed this second set has been vastly more competitive and Jodie's serve has been placed under much greater pressure - and Jodie won't be that pleased with the outcomes against the WR 892. She's been broken in the set 3x now, including when she was *4-3 up and then in her next service game serving for the match at *5-4.

She will have a second chance to serve out now, as she has also been consistently breaking her opponent, the more positive aspect of the set.

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