Michael D wrote:

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emmsie69 wrote:

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I was a little surprised that most people have Harriet at or below this years ranking. She made it through qualifying in both the Slams she entered and 3rd round Wimbledon on her WC albeit with a pretty good draw so certainly somewhere around 100 would be realistic.

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Yes I think you're probably right... I have been generous in my predictions, but probably to all the wrong people! I have Katie B ahead of both Heather and Harriet... but Katie increasingly has a long, long way to go to get back nearer either Harriet or Heather again. And I agree that Harriet does have top 100 potential, especially if she can strengthen her serve - and stay fit. It' not being able to play anything like consistently that's held her back in the past. 

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I guess most of us think our predictions are realistic when we make them. But then the players do their thing ... 

Very pleased with the early signs that Harriet may absolutely show up my GB #5 / WR 174 prediction.

Keep on going! 

emmsie69 wrote:

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I was a little surprised that most people have Harriet at or below this years ranking. She made it through qualifying in both the Slams she entered and 3rd round Wimbledon on her WC albeit with a pretty good draw so certainly somewhere around 100 would be realistic.

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See your earlier post about Harriet's serve.

emmsie69 wrote:

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Not watching but hoping she has been working on her serve as it really is stunting her.

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For the match against Nicole Gibbs:

Her average 2nd serve speed was 112 kmh (70 mph)

Her average 1st serve speed was 145 kmh (90 mph)

The Aus Open website only seems to list serve speeds for some courts but I have yet to find any other female player close to Harriet's average 2nd serve speed; there are several around 121 to 125 kmh. Indeed there are players whose average second serve is as fast as Harriet's average first serve.

The strongest case for Harriet improving on her 2019 ranking is the opportunity to play more than the 18 tournaments she managed last year. The case against is her W2 - L8 record against top 100 opponents last year. The previous year it was W2 - L4

The last time I watched Harriet was against Kurumi Nara in Tianjin and before that, US Open against Ana Bogdan. Her game simply didn't look designed with the top 100 in mind. She looks a better player on grass than on hard courts. From memory, I watched both her wins at Wimbledon and also her heavy losses against Sharapova and Sevastova early in the season and possibly another couple of her matches. 

kundalini wrote:

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emmsie69 wrote:

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I was a little surprised that most people have Harriet at or below this years ranking. She made it through qualifying in both the Slams she entered and 3rd round Wimbledon on her WC albeit with a pretty good draw so certainly somewhere around 100 would be realistic.

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See your earlier post about Harriet's serve.

emmsie69 wrote:

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Not watching but hoping she has been working on her serve as it really is stunting her.

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For the match against Nicole Gibbs:

Her average 2nd serve speed was 112 kmh (70 mph)

Her average 1st serve speed was 145 kmh (90 mph)

The Aus Open website only seems to list serve speeds for some courts but I have yet to find any other female player close to Harriet's average 2nd serve speed; there are several around 121 to 125 kmh. Indeed there are players whose average second serve is as fast as Harriet's average first serve.

The strongest case for Harriet improving on her 2019 ranking is the opportunity to play more than the 18 tournaments she managed last year. The case against is her W2 - L8 record against top 100 opponents last year. The previous year it was W2 - L4

The last time I watched Harriet was against Kurumi Nara in Tianjin and before that, US Open against Ana Bogdan. Her game simply didn't look designed with the top 100 in mind. She looks a better player on grass than on hard courts. From memory, I watched both her wins at Wimbledon and also her heavy losses against Sharapova and Sevastova early in the season and possibly another couple of her matches. 

 

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This is a huge gap in output between her 1st and 2nd serves. Seems no reason in principle why she she couldn't get that 2nd serve speed up into at least the 120s. It's certainly woefully inadequate for the top end of the women's game, so has to be something she works on. 

Coup Droit wrote:

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Do you really think that's such a big gap between first and second, Michael?

That strikes me as pretty normal, no?

I've got one page about Nicole Gibbs in front of me with 94 mph for first and 76 mph for second. Which is not far off the same.

I'm not saying that Harriet's second serve is a thing of beauty !!! () Just that the gap is speeds doesn't seem so striking to me.

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 Again a small sample size due to Aus Open website only listing service speed for a small number of courts but here goes. The difference between average first and second speed:

Harriet 33 kmh. Other female players 32, 18, 19, 27, 32, 22, 30, 22, 20, 35, 26, 17, 17 and Errani 5 (not sure Harriet should go that route, 124 kmh average first serve speed, 119 kmh average second serve speed)

So there appears to be two groups, those who drop their average speed by about 30 kmh and those who slow down by about 20 kmh. And Sara Errani who does things her own way.

*1-0 Harriet breaks to love thanks to 3 gifts, including a df, a deep return for the break

1-1 G-M breaks to 15 thanks to 4 errors from Dart, one shocking point in which she failed to finish the point with an easy f then put a volley in the net.

*2-1 Another break, G f wide after a Dart drop shot, Harriet with a f cc winner, a df for the break to 15

3-1* HD nice f winner immediately after her serve, then Giulia b ue, G-M with a lucky net-cord b winner but two more b errors from her as HD holds

*4-1 Several long rallies, Harriet struggling to finish them yet eventually does so with a smash, a f drive volley winner and an aggressive f dtl for the break to 30

5-1 Sustained attack from HD finishing with a f cc winner, two unreturned 1st serves for a hold to love

6-1 Unret 1st, df, Giulia with a poor f error long, HD attacks but puts a f cc wide. Four times Harriet has set point yet makes an error. A drop shot fails to make it over the net, a poor b error long wastes another set point after a smash had earned it. Another smash winner for set point followed by a f cc error long, Harriet b dtl winner, only for her lob to land wide after G responds well to a Dart drop shot. Giulia with a b dtl winner after a rally for game point, that she wastes with a drop shot into the net. Harriet with an amazing lob winner on the defensive for her 5th set point. The crowd enjoyed that one. Gets there with a df.

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1-0* Two aces and an unreturned first serve for 40-0, Giulia with a stunning b dtl winner, HD poor f ue long, then an unreturned 2nd serve as Harriet holds to 30

*1-1 G-M holds after Dart's careless 2nd serve return lands inches wide on bp,  G-M drop shot winner for 30-0, then 3 super points from Harriet, b dtl winner, b winner, f winner after an aggressive b creates the opening. Giulia with a b winner for the game.

1-2* G-M plays an excellent game to break to 15, on top after each 2nd serve from HD. Giulia b dtl winner, a lob that Harriet can't deal with after a G-M drop shot, a G-M f dtl winner forces 2 bps. HD b cc ue wide.

2-2 A super f cc winner from HD followed by a df, a delightful b pass winner from Giulia then a fierce b return from Dart, G-M b ue net as Harriet breaks back to 15

3-2 Long game, HD has 40-15 after two b dtl winners and a b winner, then sees a first serve returned for a winner, followed by a f pass winner from Giulia, twice Harriet gets herself in trouble then saves bp with a f winner, and another gets her the hold

*4-2 A lucky return winner then a lovely drop shot winner from HD for 15-40, a df for the break

4-3* Good defence from HD before producing a f winner but a poor f makes it 15-15, she attacks finishing with a b drive volley winner then G-M punishes a 2nd serve 30-30, then an awful v error from HD, a G f dtl winner for the break

*5-3 Not been many unforced errors this set but this game starts with some real shockers, G-M b ue, HD ugly f ue, G-M drop shot that barely reaches the net, HD smash into the net though she was forced to retreat, HD return winner and a super f winner for the break

6-3 G-M with two poor f errors, then a deep f from G, HD b cc ue net after a moon-ball rally, HD earns mp with a volley winner after a Dart drop shot, an extremely short 2nd serve gets punished, HD b cc ue hands Giulia a break point but a HD f winner saves it. A deep b from Harriet for a 2nd mp but yet another short 2nd serve gets the treatment it deserved. 2nd serve again, this time HD stays in the rally and forces another mp with a f cc winner. 2nd serve followed by a woeful return from G-M into the net for the match.

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A few thoughts: Tons of errors from both players in the early stages then Harriet started to dominate the rallies, though did waste numerous opportunities to finish points earlier than she eventually did. Giulia wasn't very good in the first set. 2nd set the overall standard of play seemed much higher. Giulia played some super tennis at times and showed a nice selection of skills, both in attack and in defence. Neither player's serve did much damage so plenty of long rallies, quite a few drop shots, several lobs, the occasional volley and smash. Harriet typically on the offensive more often than not; the intent was impressive, the execution erratic but good enough to win this match.

Towards the end Giulia seemed to relax while Harriet got a bit stressed whenever she had set (or match) point. Enough has already been written in this thread about the Dart 2nd serve.