2019 Race to Shenzhen

ROSAMUND · Futures level

RE: 2019 Race to Shenzhen

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Pliskova confirmed as qualified

seagull · Hall of fame

Jo has pulled out of Beijing so I guess thats season over.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Just saw that, so was coming to post. I'll continue to bump this thread as I'm generally interested in the WTA season's climax, but even if she played Linz and Luxemburg/Moscow (which you'd think would be unlikely anyway), then she'd have no chance of qualifying for this. There's still that Zhuhai Elite Trophy for those 9-20, but it's normally nearer 25, and I'd imagine Jo would probably contribute to the lower entry requirement for that as well.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

So just to confirm, Jo is out of Asia, with a small injury it seems, but plans on playing Moscow later in Autumn

www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/49725643

But it confirms Shenzhen is over as a target for her

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Osaka wins Osaka smile , and those 470 should probably just about be enough to get her over the line, but she may need a win or two in Beijing just to be sure. She gambled and pulled out of Wuhan before she had played her QF match against Putintseva (who she was 0-3 against), so would have been sweating a bit (in terms of making Shenzhen) had she lost.

Bencic has been a winner these past 2 weeks, she pulled out of Osaka and has not played since reaching the US Open semi final, so should be fresher for Wuhan, but her 2 main rivals below her, Svitolina (who was also a US Open semi finalist) and Bertens, played both weeks but have very little to show for it. Bertens has lost both matches so has gained no points at all, whereas Svitolina lost, or retired even, in the 2nd round of Guangzhou, adding only 30 points (or 29 net) to her tally.

Kenin won Guangzhou, her 3rd WTA title of the year, but she'll still need at least 1,000 points from Beijing and Wuhan (so win one, or a final and semi etc) to get herself in realistic contention, and even then, she'd still need more points in Tianjin.

indiana · Tennis legend

Yes, I think Osaka will be fine now, even if mathematically still some way off guaranteed.

Re Kenin, all her existing 16 non mandatory race counters are 100 points or more ( the last 4 are 180, 105, 105 and 100 ). So any new counters will just be net additions in place of one of these ( her Beijing Premier Mandatory score will have to come in whatever it is ).

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
Yes, I think Osaka will be fine now, even if mathematically still some way off guaranteed.

Re Kenin, all her existing 16 non mandatory race counters are 100 points or more ( the last 4 are 180, 105, 105 and 100 ). So any new counters will just be net additions in place of one of these ( her Beijing Premier Mandatory score will have to come in whatever it is ).

Yeah, Kenin is another Bertens (bar the PM win) where the vast majoirty of her success has come outside of the biggest mandatory events, so she will have to do extremely well in the forthcoming events to have any chance - she really needs to win Wuhan or Beijing. She's down for Tianjin, but not Luxembourg/Moscow, so may go WC sniffing if required, but realistically, she's played a lot of tennis anyway since Canada, so qualifying for Zhuhai will be a good achievement for this season, and then look to do a bit better in the slams next year when she should benefit from a higher seeding.

Serena's situation, and will she or won't she play does make it that bit more interesting. She's still down for Beijing at the moment, and you'd think if she plays that, she'll play the finals as well (assuming she qualifies), but if she doesn't, then she probably wouldn't (may not even qualify if she doesn't hit another ball), so it'll be worth keeping an eye on entry lists this coming week for that.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Bertens finally gets a win, but she had to work hard as she was a set and 3-4* down against Pera, before winning 9 of the last 11 games. She has defending champ Sabalenka next who has been carving through the draw, dropping only 4 games in 2 matches.

Svitolina beat Muguruza, but Bencic had a costly loss to Kudermetova.

Serena has withdrawn from Beijing.

JonH comes home · Tennis legend

Last 8 in Wuhan includes: Kvitova and Svitolina from those in contention, Svitolina is up to 8th now. Martic is still in and gained 2 places to 14th. Rest seem too far back to be of interest in the Race though, Sabalenka is next best placed but she is back in 19th and over a 1000 points back even if she wins in Wuhan

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Yeah, Martic certainly needs to make at least the Wuhan final, and probably win it realistically to have any chance, and even then there'd still be a lot of work to do. Serena kind of makes it interesting with it not fully known what she intends to do. Withdrawing from Beijing, and thus no matches since the US Open, would suggest to me that she won't play this if she qualifies, but the person in 9th can't be reliant on that. Halep also withdrew from the finals last year and she retired in Wuhan today, so there's always the possibility that someone else withdraws and then nobody in the current top 10 misses out in terms of results.

At this stage, I think Serena won't play and Svitolina has possibly already done enough this week, even more so if she beats Riske tomorrow, and then it'll come down to Benic and Bertens for the last spot with neither adding to their tally in Wuhan. Would be very interesting if they were to meet in the last 8 at Beijing. Kvitova should now be safe.

indiana · Tennis legend

Hey, if 3 were to withdraw Jo is for now still hanging in there at #11.

More realistically, I'll be happy if she is back for the Moscow Premier and Elite Trophy and heads into the close season in good heart.

ROSAMUND · Futures level

indiana wrote:
Hey, if 3 were to withdraw Jo is for now still hanging in there at #11.
More realistically, I'll be happy if she is back for the Moscow Premier and Elite Trophy and heads into the close season in good heart.

As a pessimist we don't know how serious or otherwise Jo's knee problem is. Apart from one cooking posting on instagram Jo hasn't posted anything on twitter or instagram since her US Open finished.

indiana · Tennis legend

I've attached Jon's post of 9 days ago re Jo with link to a BBC article. There was an assumption that with the described "slight knee pain" and next likely to play in Moscow that she was out of the Shenzhen WTA finals but if she ended up falling into a place due to withdrawals I assume that there is a fair chance she'd take it up.

I appreciate that it would need at least 3 Shenzhen withdrawals, maybe ultimately more, so I was being a bit tongue in cheek after Ace speculated re a couple of possible withdrawals.

JonH comes home wrote:

So just to confirm, Jo is out of Asia, with a small injury it seems, but plans on playing Moscow later in Autumn

www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/49725643

But it confirms Shenzhen is over as a target for her

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 26th of September 2019 07:55:25 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

So the Wuhan final will be between Sabalenka and Riske, still very outside and very very outside shots for Shenzhen even for whoever wins the final tomorrow. Whatever, Jo will still be race #11 on Monday on 2880 points, herself pretty far behind the top 10's points even if she was playing.

Kvitova's SF, taking her to #6 4186 points, has seen her probably join #5 Osaka 4246 points as very good finals bets, if still far from yet definites. Barty, Ka Pliskova, Halep and Andreescu are mathematically guaranteed or near enough.

#7 to #10 going into Beijing, taking off their 16th counters where they have any ( to allow in the Beijing mandatory ) :

7. S Williams : 3935 - 0 = 3935 ( not playing Beijing and ? re Shenzhen finals )
8. E Svitolina : 3781 - 1 = 3780
9. B Bencic : 3615 - 30 = 3585
10. K Bertens : 3585 - 105 = 3480

After Beijing, the final 2 weeks for finals qualification have first the Linz and Tianjin Internationals ( 280 points to the winners ) and then the Moscow Premier (470) and Luxembourg International (280).