Week 32 - ITF (W25) - Chiswick, Great Britain - Hard

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Week 32 - ITF (W25) - Chiswick, Great Britain - Hard

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

the addict wrote:
These three were on the latest acceptance list, but aren't in the draw
Diana MARCINKEVICA (LAT)
Mariam BOLKVADZE (GEO)
Gabriella TAYLOR (GBR)

Yeah, one pulled out before the Q draw was made, which allowed Lily to sneak in, but there must have been 2 after the to make way for 2 LL spots and 10 to be placed rather than the usual 8. I did naturally notice Gabi missing when the draw came out, but didn't bother to check the extra Q places. Hopefully we click from this.

the addict · Tennis legend

The men's FQR still has quite a way to go, so it may be a while until we know - or they might draw it any moment.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

If we do get 1 or 2 of the 2 LL spots then I hope it's Ali and/or Nell that benefit as I think they'll have the best chance to do something in the main draw. Without wanting to sound mean, I'd assume Alice and Emily App would both be pretty high up on the Q/LL's wish list for players to draw. Those 2 against GB Qs or LLs would be good.

the addict · Tennis legend

Ali gets one, and Andre Lukosiute the other

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Pleased Ali got in, so shouldn't complain, but the placements could have been better. Ali gets the Greek seed with the long name, Holly gets Lesley K, the top seed. Ola gets Lily, and Emily App gets the Lithuanian LL. Alice gets the promising Chinese youngster. Naiktha gets Rush1ti who struggled a bit today, so that's not bad.

Maybe too optimistic, but I'd like to think we'd get about 6 of the 12 through, one is guaranteed to go through (and out).

I assume Ali won't get any points if she loses to Gram..., considering she is a LL?

-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Monday 5th of August 2019 07:45:26 PM

the addict · Tennis legend

Looks like the qualifiers have a day off (but not the LL). 5 of the seven matches involving Brits all are first on at 10 am, so I haven't a clue how much I'll actually see, and it's going to need some planning.

Edit - mind you there are some good men's match as well - Ryan v George will be worth watching.

-- Edited by the addict on Monday 5th of August 2019 08:19:22 PM

indiana · Tennis legend

Ace Ventura wrote:
Pleased Ali got in, so shouldn't complain, but the placements could have been better. Ali gets the Greek seed with the long name, Holly gets Lesley K, the top seed. Ola gets Lily, and Emily App gets the Lithuanian LL. Alice gets the promising Chinese youngster. Naiktha gets Rush1ti who struggled a bit today, so that's not bad.

Maybe too optimistic, but I'd like to think we'd get about 6 of the 12 through, one is guaranteed to go through (and out).

I assume Ali won't get any points if she loses to Gram..., considering she is a LL?

-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Monday 5th of August 2019 07:45:26 PM

I believe that is the case re Ali, not having done something more worthy like accepted a MD WC.

Strongbow · All-time great

As £lvis once sung "That's the way it is"

telstar · Strong Club Player

Ace Ventura wrote:
Pleased Ali got in, so shouldn't complain, but the placements could have been better. Ali gets the Greek seed with the long name, Holly gets Lesley K, the top seed. Ola gets Lily, and Emily App gets the Lithuanian LL. Alice gets the promising Chinese youngster. Naiktha gets Rush1ti who struggled a bit today, so that's not bad.

Maybe too optimistic, but I'd like to think we'd get about 6 of the 12 through, one is guaranteed to go through (and out).

I assume Ali won't get any points if she loses to Gram..., considering she is a LL?

3 definite favourites are Sam, Naiktha and Freya. Not sure about others.

-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Monday 5th of August 2019 07:45:26 PM

-- Edited by telstar on Monday 5th of August 2019 10:30:28 PM

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

telstar wrote:

Sorry but 6 seems very optimistic to me. 3 definite favourites are Sam, Naiktha and Freya. Otherwise I would give Emily Appleton 50-50 chance but none of the others seem likely to me.

You'll probably be nearer, but I'm thinking something like:

Holly 10-90

Alicia 55-45

Alice 20-80

Angelica 40-60

Beth 30-70

Naiktha 75-25

Ola 30-70

Ali 20-80

Sam 70-30

Emily App 50-50

Freya-Emily Arb doesn't matter as it's one in the bank. So yes, relying on Naiktha and Sam to live up to their seeding (which didn't happen last week, or the week before for Sam), and then every other match that I think will be relatively close to go our way - Alicia, Emily, Angelica. They were my 6 - would be pleasantly surprised if we got much joy from those I rated as 30 or less, but maybe Beth shouldn't be a write off. Emily App's W25 lack of success has become a bit of a cruel joke, but the Lithuanian LL is surely as good as time as ever to put that right. Maybe asking a bit too much for Angelica because Arn has operated at a much higher level and even has some very good wins earlier this year, but she has lost 4 in a row (including Woking last week) and I'm hoping her age (40) is finally catching up with her, and Angelica adds another scalp - Angelica will probably be priced around 5/1, so even '40' (my %, not Greta's age) is perhaps too much, but she did beat Mandy as an 8/1 dog last week.

Last week Emily App, Emily Arb, Sam, Gabi, Alicia, and even Alice, all lost potentially 'winable' matches (poor defeats in some cases), which I think was why everyone was so disappointed with just 3 going through, especially with two being guaranteed in the Naiktha-Freya and Angelica-Mandy matches, and it probably will end up a similar story here, but you've got to have a bit of optimism, or there's not much point in putting on these home events.

I'll retract it to 6 at best, and hopefully no less than 4.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

I've found some odds on a random site. en.expekt.com/tennis/itf-w25-chiswick-25356

Freya 1.5, Emily Arb 2.36 so roughly 1/2 vs 11/8
Greta 1.42, Angelica 2.6, 2/5 vs 8/5, so much closer than my 5/1 assesment and nearer to my original 40%
Sam 1.37, Opponent 2.75, 4/11 vs 7/4
Beth 2.08, Kostic 1.64, 11/10 vs 4/6 - so definitely winnable odds-wise
Ali 6.8, Gramm 1.06, so roughly 6/1 vs 1/12
Emily App 1.23 vs LL 3.60, 2.9 vs 13/5 - Emily actually a big favourite, but I remember pointing out she was a big favourite in a couple of her recent Far East matches and I think CD cashed in when she lost.

Can't find an odds yet for Naiktha, Alicia, Ola, Holly or Alice.

So as I say, we lost a lot of winnable matches last week, but there should be a reasonable chance to pick up a few this week. Here's hoping.

Michael D · All-time great

Morning from here. Final FQR results. A pity about Tanysha's loss, I'd hoped she'd get through. There were two LLs in the MD but only Ali from the Brits.

FQR: Holly HUTCHINSON (GBR) UNR beat Nell MILLER (GBR) [WC] UNR 7-5 6-1
FQR: Ali COLLINS (GBR) [q13] 1067 lost to Arlinda RUSH1TI (SUI) [q5] 829 6-7(4) 3-6
FQR: Abigail AMOS (GBR) [WC] UNR vs Joanna GARLAND (TPE) [q6] 717 . 3-6 5-7
FQR: Tanysha DISSANAYAKE (GBR) [q12] 1145 lost to Irys EKANI (FRA) [q7] 911 6-4 3-6 6-10
FQR: Aleksandra PITAK (GBR) [q8] 958 beat Morgan CROSS (GBR) UNR 6-1 6-0

Michael D · All-time great

MD now. Angelica Blake is playing Greta Arn, who is twice her age. Emily Arb will regain her WTA ranking next week, and this WC guarantees her ranking for another year.

R32: Holly HUTCHINSON (GBR) [Q] UNR vs Lesley KERKHOVE (NED) [1] 184 (CH:149 Oct 17)
R32: Alicia BARNETT (GBR) 645 vs Lou ADLER (FRA) [IR] 534=CH/143

R32: Alice GILLAN (GBR) [IR] 688/69 vs Qinwen ZHENG (CHN) [Q] 725 (CH:633 July 19) 16yrs (JCH:7 July 19)

R32: Angelica BLAKE (GBR) [WC] UNR/UNR vs Greta ARN (HUN) 362 (CH:40 May 11) 40yrs
R32: Sarah Beth GREY (GBR) [WC] 644 vs Natalija KOSTIC (SRB) [5] 217 (CH:213 July 19)

R32: Naiktha BAINS (GBR) [6] 234 vs Arlinda RUSH1TI (SUI) [Q] 828 (CH:668 July 18)

R32: Aleksandra PITAK (GBR) [Q] 958 vs Yuriko Lily MIYAZAKI (JPN) 500 (CH:489 July 19)
R32: Ali COLLINS (GBR) [LL] 1067 vs Valentini GRAMMATIKOPOULOU (GRE) [4] 207 (CH:158 Nov 18)

R32: Samantha MURRAY (GBR) [8] 337 vs Karolina BERANKOVA (CZE) [IR] 624=CH/85
R32: Emily APPLETON (GBR) [IR] 549/20 vs Andre LUKOSIUTE (LTU) [LL] UNR

R32: Freya CHRISTIE (GBR) [WC] 676 vs Emily ARBUTHNOTT (GBR) [WC] UNR

Spireman · Club Coach

I suspect Emily App vs Andre, the Lithuanian LL, could well go the way of the LL. Having seen her in several British Tours, most recently Nottm, she is very powerful, about 6ft 4in and well built. Looking at some other results, I know difficult to compare across other players, but Grace Piper got one more game against the Australian who beat Emily last week, and Andre has beaten Grace twice in last year, 4 and 4 and 4 and 2. At very least Emily vs Andre looks a 50-50 sort of match.