ROSAMUND wrote:

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As the ultimate pessimist looking at this draw there is no way that Johanna Konta is going to come anywhere near the final. Unfortunately can see an early round defeat far more likely.

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On paper, I think it's a very fair draw to make the latter stages.

She shouldn't be worried about any of the potential 3 opponents in the opening 2 rounds, if she is, then she'll never have a chance going far. Then it is potentially Stephens in R3, who is the highest ranked seed she could have faced at this stage, but at the same time, Sloane has played 3 matches on grass since 2016, and has lost them all. I'd rather have had a Wang Qiang as the 9-16 seed, but it's still winnable, especially with Jo beating her just a few weeks ago on another huge stage. If Kvitova plays and is firing, then a potential L16 match is obviously tough, and she will be clear 2nd favourite there, but if Petra withdraws (possible), or crashes out early like last year (1st round) then there's an opening, and even then, after watching Bertens on the grass today and this week, that is a different Bertens to had it have been on clay or hard if that was a potential QF.

I don't think she will make the semi final again, but if she did, whoever she got would be extremely tough as that quarter is absolutely ridiculous - Barty, Kerber, Serena, Bencic, Goerges, Vekic. Not to mention Muguruza, Sharapova, Riske etc. - imagine how you would feel had her 19 seed swapped with 18 Goerges, and she ended up in the first quarter.

I'd initially just like to see some representation by Saturday (which will be more than last year), and it's a good enough early draw for that to happen, and then just see what happens after that.

ROSAMUND wrote:

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I think I'd pick Sloane Stephens as an opponent over Qiang Wang. At least Jo has a winning record over Sloane whereas she suffered a heavy defeat in Miami against Wang and had had an earlier defeat against her in 2016.Hopes she plays better than her last match against Jabeur.

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But Wang's ranking and seeding does feel really heavily inflated thanks to her amazing, completely out of the blue, run in China at the back end of last year which is so out of line with the rest of her career. She's 27 and has never been into the 4th round of any slam, ever, and was ranked 91 just 13 months ago. She's also only 43rd in the race despite playing a fairly full schedule, and being a high seed in most of her 12 tournaments. That 43 also includes the 215 points for Miami which you referenced where her run was - bye, Konta, walkover, Yafan - so she got 215 of her 750 points this year for beating 2 players who were ranked 38 and 50 at the time. She also doesn't play many matches on grass.

Appreciate the inferior head to head, although it is only 2 matches, but Wang really does seem to be a 35-45 player with a lofty current ranking and an ideal relatively high seed to draw - it'll be interesting to see where she is after the Asian Swing this year, as she has a ridiculous amount of points to defend. That said, her initial draw here is actually quite kind, so she could actually match her seeding and get into the last 16 for the first time. Her 1st round opponent Lapko has been almost a walking bye throughout 2019.

flamingowings wrote:

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McNally is no mug on grass and has come through qualies. Heather has no form. Not surprised to see McNally as a favourite.

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Oh, yes, I agree that McNally is playing very well. I only saw ten minutes here and there but it was very solid.

However, given the rankings, the ages and experience, it's still a match where I think the odds are slightly wrongly skewed.