Very happy with that. The men's hasn't gone as well as hoped, but this draw looks better overall, and no real write offs. You could see 5 or 6 with a decent chance of going through there. Obviously most of the opponents will be quite pleased they have drawn a lower ranked player, in all but one case not high enough to get in directly, but definitely some real opportunities.

Dunne withdrew so her wildcard was reallocated

Yes, Naomi inherited Katy D's Q WC. Naiktha is in direct, never needing a Q WC after allowing for the MD ones.

Emma's match is on the televised court and BBC red button - 3rd on after Blinkova/Hives and Lisicki/Babos. Last match on that court is Gauff/Bolsova.

Emma 4/5 vs 10/11
Gabi 5/6 vs 5/6
Naomi 5/4 vs 4/7
Maia 5/4 vs 4/7
Naiktha 6/5 vs 8/13
Fran 6/4 vs 1/2
Murray 2/1 vs 4/11
Eden 3/1 vs 2/9

So Emma a very marginal favourite, Gabi the same odds as her opponent, Naomi, Maia and Naiktha all pretty close as well, and then slightly wider after that, so kind of fits in with my earlier 5 or 6 with decent chances of going through, in terms of the odds anyway. Hopefully we can get at least 3 going through.

Andy Parker wrote:

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Sam's long odds surprise me - Peng is a player in decline I think and that is one of the most winnable matches of the 8, on the other hand I'm equally surprised that with Emma's inexperience, that she is favourite.

I agree Ace; that maybe we should be hoping for three wins - somewhere between two and four feels like a realistic amount to me too - lots of these look like close matches.

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Liang has been well beaten in a lot of her matches recently if you have a quick scan of her results. 1 and 2 against a traditional clay courter in Cepede Royg in her last match at Ilkley, and even Watson (I shouldn't say that, but she's had a poor 2019) beat her 2 and 2 last month. Gabi and Katy both beat her earlier this year and in a lot of her matches she doesn't win more than 3 or 4 games. A bit of a surprise given she is a former excellent junior, but then she is only about 5 ft (might be exaggerating a bit, but she is tiny, although pretty stocky), so maybe she has struggled with the physicalities of the pro tour when playing against more developed players, although she has still managed to get herself in the top 200. My main concern with Emma is the lack of match practice these past couple of months, but I'm still optimistic and Emma has definitely beaten better players these past 9 months (IMO) in Badosa Gibert and Minnen. Grass may help as well. I also can't wait to watch that match tomorrow :)

Yeah, 3 sounds a fair amount, 4 would be great, 2 would maybe be a little disappointing, but I would certainly take 3 now. It's good that 7 of them have avoided seeds and there were some particularly dangerous players in the draw like Rybakina (who I'd have liked to have seen given a MDWC, especially with 5 officially going spare - ridiculous), so certainly no Brits should feel like they are turning up for the sake of it.

 

Edit - just had a quick check and Liang is 1.58m, so 5.18 ft.

-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Monday 24th of June 2019 10:44:56 PM