Week 25 - WTA Premier ($1M) - Birmingham, Great Britain Grass

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Week 25 - WTA Premier ($1M) - Birmingham, Great Britain Grass

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Lost 3-6 4-6. Konta was down an early break in the 2nd (like the first), but did at least manage to break Ostapenko and then was immediately broken back.

Peter too · Tennis legend

R2: KONTA, Johanna (GBR) 7 18 lost to OSTAPENKO, Jelena (LAT) 37 3-6 4-6

Michael D · All-time great

I see that Kristyna Pliskova has just squeezed home a 3rd set TB win against twin sister Karolina who is ranked more than 100 places higher than her. Quite surprisingly having now checked their H2H, Kristyna now leads it 5-4, which will certainly give her some sibling bragging rights with her much more successful twin!

Kristyna is left handed too, against Karolina's right, and their last match before today was way back in 2013. Extremely helpfully the H2H just says 'Pliskova' won, so impossible to know their relative success against one another on different surfaces, but having now just checked they have played together twice before on grass (including Japan once), and Kristyna won both those occasions too, so her grass record against her twin is now 3-0.

Good for her she leads on one surface!

ROSAMUND · Futures level

indiana wrote:
Not saying Jo will reach the final but I certainly don't see it as unrealistic.

I am more interested in her form of late rather than some Birmingham hoodoo.

Will he interesting to see how she transitions to grass. But I don't see that the clay queen should be so unable to find her grass touch. And she should have confidence.

Well it proved to be unrealistic. The worst grass court tournament for our players over the years. At least Jo will have some energy left for Eastbourne. The other thing is that anybody who does well in the pre Wimbledon grass court tournaments never does well at Wimbledon.

flamingowings · All-time great

Anybody is a big assumption, are there stats for who has won pre-W tournaments and lost at W?
How did Jo do the year she reached W SF in her grass tournies?

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

flamingowings wrote:
Anybody is a big assumption, are there stats for who has won pre-W tournaments and lost at W?
How did Jo do the year she reached W SF in her grass tournies?

There was a big thread on TF the other day about past Eastbourne winners and generally not doing too well at Wimbledon the following week:

1990: Navratilova (Wimbledon: won)
1991: Navratilova (Wimbledon: QF)
1992: Lori McNeil (Wimbledon: SF)
1993: Navtrailova (Wimbledon: SF)
1994: Meredith McGrath (Wimbledon: 3R)
1995: Tauziat (Wimbledon: 3R)
1996: Seles (Wimbledon: 2R)
1997: No winner
1998: Novotna (Wimbledon: won)
1999: Zvereva (Wimbledon: 2R)
2000: Halard-Decugis (Wimbledon: 1R)
2001: Davenport (Wimbledon: SF)
2002: Chanda Rubin (Wimbledon: 4R)
2003: Chanda Rubin (Wimbledon: 3R)
2004: Kuznetsova (Wimbledon: 1R)
2005: Clijsters (Wimbledon: 4R)
2006: Henin (Wimbledon: F)
2007: Henin (Wimbledon: SF)
2008: Radwanska (Wimbledon: QF)
2009: Wozniacki (Wimbledon: 4R)
2010: Makarova (Wimbledon: 2R)
2011: Bartoli (Wimbledon: QF)
2012: Paszek (Wimbledon: QF)
2013: Vesnina (Wimbledon: 2R)
2014: Keys (Wimbledon: 3R)
2015: Bencic (Wimbledon: 4R)
2016: Cibulkova (Wimbledon: QF)
2017: Pliskova (Wimbledon: 2R)
2018: Wozniacki (Wimbledon: 2R)

I don't have the stats for finalists, but I do personally remember Sabalenka getting to the final last year (her big coming out tournament) and losing narrowly to Woz in the final and then being absolutely goosed for her Monday start at Wimbledon, and lost in R1. Mind, all 5 of her Eastbourne wins up until the final were in 3 sets, mostly lengthy, so that clearly isn't ideal for a huge tournament starting 2 days later.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Mind, 11 of those did reach at least the QF, and I reckon if someone offered Jo an Eastbourne title and a Wimbledon QF exit, she'd snap their hand off.

indiana · Tennis legend

ROSAMUND wrote:
indiana wrote:
Not saying Jo will reach the final but I certainly don't see it as unrealistic.

I am more interested in her form of late rather than some Birmingham hoodoo.

Will he interesting to see how she transitions to grass. But I don't see that the clay queen should be so unable to find her grass touch. And she should have confidence.
Well it proved to be unrealistic. The worst grass court tournament for our players over the years. At least Jo will have some energy left for Eastbourne. The other thing is that anybody who does well in the pre Wimbledon grass court tournaments never does well at Wimbledon.

Not sure that Jo losing in R2 proved any thought of her maybe reaching the final was unrealistic. All early losers in an event never were in with much chance?

Not convinced about the Wimbledon pre tournament vs Wimbledon theory as a generality either, let alone as an absolute. And as Ace indicates, looking at the history, the Eastbourne winners' Wimbledon performances arguably don't look as awful overall as seems to be made out in places.

Whatever, all the best to Jo.

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 20th of June 2019 12:51:35 AM

flamingowings · All-time great

Was it Inverdale at RG going on about Jo's dog? I see he made an appearance (the dog, not Inverdale!) at her presser.

Cheers ace for the stats above. Interesting.

indiana · Tennis legend

I hope that Inverdale was careful regarding any comments about a dog at Jo's PC given his previous.

ROSAMUND · Futures level

flamingowings wrote:
Anybody is a big assumption, are there stats for who has won pre-W tournaments and lost at W?
How did Jo do the year she reached W SF in her grass tournies?

If you look at Birmingham and Eastbourne winners and runners up in 2017 and 2018 they have barely won a match at that years Wimbledon.

In 2018 both Birmingham winner Kvitova and runner up Rybarikova lost in the 1st round of Wimbledon.

In 2017 it was similar Kvitova lost in the 2nd round and Barty in the 1st round of Wimbledon.

Eastbourne 2018 followed up with Wozniacki losing in the 2nd rd and Sabalenka in the 1st.

Eastbourne 2017 had Ka. Pliskova losing in the 2nd round and Wozniaki did get to the 4th round.

The fact that Jo lost early in Birmingham might be a blessing in one way. Had she reached the final of Birmingham on the Sunday she might well have pulled out of Eastbourne. Would be a quick turn around although I know she managed it between Rabat and Madrid in May.

If you look up Ostapenko's record on grass, she actually has the pedigree to get to a Wimbledon final. She won junior Wimbledon and has been a quarter finalist and semi finalist in the last 2 years.

SuperT · Futures qualifying

indiana wrote:
ROSAMUND wrote:
indiana wrote:
Not saying Jo will reach the final but I certainly don't see it as unrealistic.

I am more interested in her form of late rather than some Birmingham hoodoo.

Will he interesting to see how she transitions to grass. But I don't see that the clay queen should be so unable to find her grass touch. And she should have confidence.
Well it proved to be unrealistic. The worst grass court tournament for our players over the years. At least Jo will have some energy left for Eastbourne. The other thing is that anybody who does well in the pre Wimbledon grass court tournaments never does well at Wimbledon.
Not sure that Jo losing in R2 proved any thought of her maybe reaching the final was unrealistic. All early losers in an event never were in with much chance?
Not convinced about the Wimbledon pre tournament vs Wimbledon theory as a generality either, let alone as an absolute. And as Ace indicates, looking at the history, the Eastbourne winners' Wimbledon performances arguably don't look as awful overall as seems to be made out in places.
Whatever, all the best to Jo.

-- Edited by indiana on Thursday 20th of June 2019 12:51:35 AM

I agree Indi. I don't think it was unrealistic to think Jo might make the final. What I didn't expect was for Ostapenko to play such an awesome match given her record this year. I watched most of it, and apart from the first game where she failed to take a couple of break points I didn't think Jo did much wrong - she just couldn't live with Ostapenko playing at that level - and there aren't many that could! Hoping that the rest this week will see her fresh and fired up to have a good shot at Eastbourne.

flamingowings · All-time great

ROSAMUND wrote:
flamingowings wrote:
Anybody is a big assumption, are there stats for who has won pre-W tournaments and lost at W?
How did Jo do the year she reached W SF in her grass tournies?
If you look at Birmingham and Eastbourne winners and runners up in 2017 and 2018 they have barely won a match at that years Wimbledon.
In 2018 both Birmingham winner Kvitova and runner up Rybarikova lost in the 1st round of Wimbledon.
In 2017 it was similar Kvitova lost in the 2nd round and Barty in the 1st round of Wimbledon.
Eastbourne 2018 followed up with Wozniacki losing in the 2nd rd and Sabalenka in the 1st.
Eastbourne 2017 had Ka. Pliskova losing in the 2nd round and Wozniaki did get to the 4th round.
The fact that Jo lost early in Birmingham might be a blessing in one way. Had she reached the final of Birmingham on the Sunday she might well have pulled out of Eastbourne. Would be a quick turn around although I know she managed it between Rabat and Madrid in May.
If you look up Ostapenko's record on grass, she actually has the pedigree to get to a Wimbledon final. She won junior Wimbledon and has been a quarter finalist and semi finalist in the last 2 years.

Two years is hardly a pattern.

ROSAMUND · Futures level

Ostapenko's Wimbledon record is considerably better than some other more fancied players. Ostapenko may have a slumped a bit but she was a top tenner at end of 2017. As far as Jo is concerned Birmingham is her worst grass court tournament. She has never won more than 1 match there whereas she has twice been a finalist at Nottingham, twice a semi finalist at Eastbourne and once at Wimbledon. Even in her most successful grass court season of 2017 she was well beaten at Birmingham by CoCo Vandeweghe. I know there is a counter argument to this and that is Jo has never done anything on clay until this year. To be honest I think some of the results in pre Grand Slam events are not a sign of what will happen in the Grand Slams. No one who has won Eastbourne went on to win Wimbledon since Novotna in 1998 and at Birmingham since 2004 with Sharapova. Conversely in 2017 Muguruza went on to win Wimbledon in 2017 having won 1 game on an outside court against Strycova. I may be unpopular for saying this and having followed Jo's career since Eastbourne 2015 I simply think she is not good enough to win a Slam or on the evidence so far reach a final. I know it is possible to win a slam when it seems totally improbable i.e. Bartoli but you need a combination of lucky circumstances to make it happen.