Weeks 12 & 13 - WTA Premier Mandatory - Miami, USA - Hard

Barefoot · Lower Club Player

Weeks 12 & 13 - WTA Premier Mandatory - Miami, USA - Hard

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

No concerns whatsoever with Harriet - no match for 9 weeks, a big 5/2 outsider and playing someone who had previously been much ranked and only last week beat both Keys and Goerges. I'd have been reasonably encouraged with a 5-7 3-6 type of loss just to get back into things. It does reaffirm my beliefs that she can compete at a higher level and hopefully towards that top 100. It was just the manner, those 2 extra breaks in the first set and the 3-1 lead in the decider, and to make matters worse, saving 3 MPs at 0-40* to force the TB and even getting the TB back to 5-5. A gutting loss, but definitely more encouraging sings.

Didn't have much expectations for Watson. No form, playing a higher ranked seed as the underdog, but again, I guess it's just the *4-4 in the decider with a point for 5-4* and then another shattering defeat for her.

As for Katie, a defeat to Bouzkova in isolation certainly isn't an issue, it's just when it's no change from Minnen, Bonaventure, Alexandrova, Golubic and Bouzkova combined, those ranked from 75-150 is a bit disappointing (I'll include Minnen in that range). Katie had lost both previous meetings to Bouzkova (as she had with Kiick), but when she first played Bouzkova it was 255 (KB) vs 182 (MB), and 194 (KB) vs 169 (MB) in the second. There's no doubt Katie has had more opportunities than most around her in the last 12 months - Miami 2018 QWC, Nott'm MDWC, B'ham MDWC, Southsea MDWC, Wimbledon MDWC (I thought there was another overseas one, but seemingly not) and she's certainly taking advantage of them as she had success in all bar Bham to really push her ranking up. Obviously the likes of Bouzkova don't get these opportunities, but when you saw those grass wins and then (and perhaps most significant) backing it up with solid wins in China with her new ranking - the likes of Sakkari, Riske etc. you kind of accepted her as a more legit top 100. Had Katie been circa 200+ like this time last year and got into quals with another QWC then I certainly wouldn't be writing this at all. Perhaps it'll take another year for her to be a fully fledged top 100 player (as in really, not just by number) and get used to the tour, because this time only 11 months ago she was #196 and that is a big rise in such a short period. Let's see how she gets on in WTA Monterrey in a couple of weeks, the last WTA hard event until the US Open swing, before she decides whether to play clay or head back to Asia.

Peter too · Tennis legend

Summary:-
Q1: WATSON, Heather (GBR) 113 lost to BRENGLE, Madison (USA) 17 96 7-6(2) 3-6 4-6
Q1: DART, Harriet (GBR) 135 lost to BARTHEL, Mona (GER) 18 97 6-3 4-6 6-7(5)
Q1: BOULTER, Katie (GBR) 6 85 lost to BOUZKOVA, Marie (CZE) 130 4-6 2-6

indiana · Tennis legend

Poor Katie.

I agreed that she had had a bit of a relatively slowish start to the year and I hoped for more ( I often hope for more than I necessary expect ) but as I said not a particularly bad start either. And this is just mid March.

So we are talking about a few months of arguably non linear progress against the last year or so she had had.

With a record against top 100 players since the start of last year ( started 2018 WR 199 ) of 11 wins and 12 losses ( 2 to 4 this year ) she certainly belongs in the top 100 ( she in a way seems to have had more relative issues at times with lower ranked players ).

Today she stands WR 84 against her CH 82. Partly she is still so close to her CH because of a slowish start to 2018 and that year certainly grew.

Let's be cutting more slack for one of our relative success stories to date. Especially with as yet to my mind not much to be particularly concerned about.

the addict · Tennis legend

And don't forget, both Harriet and Katie are making the step up into WTA tournaments - this time last year they were mainly playing ITF, and both only really stepped up when the grass season began. It will take a while to adjust and establish themselves at this level, and maintaining their ranking is a pretty good target in itself.

mbturner · Lower Club Player

12 seeds fell in Q1. It's a competitive field.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

indiana wrote:
Poor Katie.

I agreed that she had had a bit of a relatively slowish start to the year and I hoped for more ( I often hope for more than I necessary expect ) but as I said not a particularly bad start either. And this is just mid March.

So we are talking about a few months of arguably non linear progress against the last year or so she had had.

With a record against top 100 players since the start of last year ( started 2018 WR 199 ) of 11 wins and 12 losses ( 2 to 4 this year ) she certainly belongs in the top 100 ( she in a way seems to have had more relative issues at times with lower ranked players ).

Today she stands WR 84 against her CH 82. Partly she is still so close to her CH because of a slowish start to 2018 and that year certainly grew.

Let's be cutting more slack for one of our relative success stories to date. Especially with as yet to my mind not much to be particularly concerned about.

Yeah, I think I was being a bit overcritical and when you see the likes of Watson, Broady, Katy and (although encouraging sings last week) Gabi, she has started the year better than a lot of our other higher ranked players, could maybe even include Harriet's unfortunate inactivity / injuries as a chance of progression missed, so writing that out, bar Jo, she's probably had the best start to 2019 than all of those who featured in the Wimbledon main draw last year, and it's not been too bad.

Although saying that, we are effectively in April now as she won't be playing before then and when you see all the main tour hard court tournaments as well as the large number of hard court 100/125k ITF events available to date, this would have been a good chance to add more points as we enter what would traditionally be a tough period for her - either 2 months on the clay or back to the 25/60/80k Asian ITF scene, and unless she does well there, there would be increased pressure to do as well as last year on the grass.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

the addict wrote:
And don't forget, both Harriet and Katie are making the step up into WTA tournaments - this time last year they were mainly playing ITF, and both only really stepped up when the grass season began. It will take a while to adjust and establish themselves at this level, and maintaining their ranking is a pretty good target in itself.

Yeah exactly, I was referring to that with the perhaps it'll take another year for her to be a fully fledged top 100 player and get used to the tour, because this time only 11 months ago she was #196 and that is a big rise in such a short period.

Out of curiosity, does anyone have a tool or a site they use where you can compare what other players have added since the start of the year. It might not be straight forward because someone could have added say 30 points at Acapulco, but were defending 60 from last year and that may not be included in their countable tournaments, but it would be interesting to see how others around her have started the year in comparison. E.g Katie has added 70 (Aus), 20 (IW), 30 (Acapulco) and 18 (St Pete's), so 138, but Miami wouldn't be included. Just a click glance at OER shows Kudemetova has added 400, Jorovic 220, but the likes of Kumkhum, Pera and Larsson have added very little.

I suppose, technically 'The Race' would probably be the best bet, although that does take into account points won in November and December last year. Katie is currently 111, but many of those directly below are still involved in Miami or 25ks so that will probably fall further by Monterrey.

She's on 141 points when you take into account the 2 for Miami and 1 for Auckland which is about 55 points off her ranking, so roughly the equivalent of beating Minnen and losing in R2 and coming through quals at Miami before going out in R1. Greet coincidentally is ranked 85 in the race on 195 points (although 27 of those came in late 2019).

-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Tuesday 19th of March 2019 03:46:24 PM

RedSquirrel · Satellite level

https://coric.top/en/rank/custom looks at points won for any starting week in the last 52 weeks to now for the top 200.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

RedSquirrel wrote:
https://coric.top/en/rank/custom looks at points won for any starting week in the last 52 weeks to now for the top 200.

Fantastic, thanks RS - that's a great snapshot of tournaments.

From 31st Dec, Katie is exactly 100 on there, although as mentioned, no current sub 200 players, so the likes of Minnen won't be included, but I doubt there'd be too many situations like hers. I guess there are plenty of established names like Siniakova, Krunic, Cibulkova, Puig etc. who have made worse starts to their campaigns.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

By the way, no play in Miami until at least 5pm our time due to the rain and it doesn't look particularly good for the next couple of days.

flamingowings · All-time great

Doubles:

L32: Heather Watson & Lara Arruabarrena (ESP) vs (7) Andreja Klepac (SLO) & Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez (ESP)

the addict · Tennis legend

All play cancelled for the day, and a monster schedule for tomorrow.

indiana · Tennis legend

Regarding the live race I see from OER that we have 8 in the top 250 ( Katie B as said live 111 but ended last year fairly early in October after a retirement and so is higher in points from just this year ). Maia and Jodie are in these 8. Katy D and Naomi are the players in our current top 10 ranked not to be.

Some folk might like some players to be a bit higher from these few months but that's not bad for us and we continue to have a historically good group of young players who have just not quite overall made the fast start of last year but have still a lot of time on their side, this year and beyond.

Plenty time to pick up more pace again.

JonH · All-time great

indiana wrote:
Regarding the live race I see from OER that we have 8 in the top 250 ( Katie B as said live 111 but ended last year fairly early in October after a retirement and so is higher in points from just this year ). Maia and Jodie are in these 8. Katy D and Naomi are the players in our current top 10 ranked not to be.

Some folk might like some players to be a bit higher from these few months but that's not bad for us and we continue to have a historically good group of young players who have just not quite overall made the fast start of last year but have still a lot of time on their side, this year and beyond.

Plenty time to pick up more pace again.

Although our Top 10 average is around 210 for the Race versus 205 in the live rankings, suggesting overall we are performing weaker in these first 3 months versus past 12. JoKo is at 50th so a reasonably large part of that gap. Feels like the trajectory currently is down overall but maybe there is time to pick it up as you say - to be frank in a rolling 12 month ranking system there is always time to pick it up, maybe 12 months of time!