I for one certainly didn't say that a Fed Cup doubles win with Heather was "a given". But that I was fairly confident that it would be a win if a deciding doubles. I'd make us favourites for such a doubles.

-- Edited by indiana on Monday 25th of March 2019 02:00:21 PM

indiana wrote:

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In general re our women it's not been a great start to the year, especially compared to a fairly sharp start to last year.

But I am more and more thinking that I am actually coming over as one of the more optimistic posters, more particularly in the medium to long term, regarding our women. I'd certainly say that that is a shift in my position on that scale in the last year or so and I feel it's more the scale of positivity / negativity has moved as folk come and go rather than that I have.

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The beginning of last year was a very optimistic time, as Katie B, Harriet, Gabi and Katie S all soared up, and Katy D also moved upwards too. Even Laura got some good early season wins, and heavens a bit later so did Naomi. I think you have a NOT missing there Indy, ie 'that that is NOT a shift in my position...' As for mine, I must admit it is hard to be as optimistic as we were this time a year ago. This is not only because the performances have been poorer (not aided by Harriet and Katie S not having played much for months other than the Fed Cup), but also because of the transition tour fiasco. The transition tour has definitely helped turn my own perceptions re our women's future more negative, since it is much harder to see pathways now. Even for someone like Emma R, who the changes are supposed to benefit, is still struggling to get into W25s, and this week has resorted to a return to an Israeli W15, which is where it all started for her last year. But if a year later she is being forced back into the same basic level of competition, in a tournament that is now only designed to her her with W25 entries (and essentially to retain the points she won last year so her ITF ranking doesn't fall), where does that leave us? Fran has made no headway in W25s this year, nor has anyone else below her, except for one or two Eden and Freya wins. I still expect Emma to come through, but the process is slower now, and as for anyone else trying to get a foot on the WTA ladder, well good luck to them. Even Mandy C is battling head wins to get back onto the WTA tour and it's not going to happen soon. Victoria Allen? Give her another W25 WC and she'll have a WTA ranking that includes two WCs....

As for our heady last year's group, with luck Katie B and Harriet will come good and Katie will consolidate her top 100 position and Harriet get nearer. Katie S should improve when she plays again, but will drop points too if she doesn't soon. Gabi it's not clear yet, but at least she has hit a bottom now, in market terminology, and in the short term if she plays and wins some matches will regain some of her lost ground. Otherwise Jodie is the only real upward mover so far this year amongst ALL our WTA ranked women. Since Week 5 and some of the early season shaking out from the new ranking system, it's only Katie B and Jodie that have had CH's, and next week Jodie's new CH that is due then will be our first since Week 8. Last year we were often having multiple CHs every week, including down the rankings where the CHs have dried up and players being kicked out. 

So no, it's very hard to be as optimistic now as this time last year... but I'm also still waiting to see quite how the new two tour system works out, and where we are with it by later this year, since it's clear that ongoing modifications are going to continue to happen. Last year we headed into the grass season on a high. That's not what it feels like now, but maybe we still might be pleasantly surprised. Let's hope.

 

Yes too many unknowns still for any of that wildcard chat yet!!

I am perhaps more critical than many on here, but for me, it's not just a few slower months, it's more realisation of the longer term situation and the prospects / ceiling of some of our better players are not as high as hoped. If we breakdown the 8 who featured in the main draw of Wimbledon last year, the landscape has notably deteriorated:

Konta - Now the Miami and Wimbledon SF points are well and truly off as well as all the 'top 10 commitments' and the early byes that go with it, she's transitioned into a 30-50 player. That of course is still very good and I'd LOVE some of the others that I'll be mentioning to get anywhere near that level, but there's also the realisation that a PM title and grand slam latter stage run for GB women are pretty much over for the very foreseeable future.

Boulter - Fine. As I mentioned the other day, her start could have perhaps been a little bit better as she is below her current ranking in 'the race' and will have traditionally her worst part of the season coming up and may well dip back to ITFs until the grass. However, if she can remain anywhere from 70-100 and enter all the slams directly and get into a few WTA draws where we can watch on TV, picking up a few wins here and there, then that will be a very satisfying career and we'll get a lot of joy watching her do that and I hope the others in that group can get to that level.

Watson - It's not looking great. She may well have a good grass season like she did in 2017, but bar the odd run here and there, she's not going to get her 'mojo back' as has been hoped for and it's largely been very poor for 15/18 months and of course she is getting older all the time.

Dart - Very frustrating the way she's only played once and not won since her fantastic start to the season. She seemed to play well against Barthel last week, or certainly competed well anyway, and came to within 2 points of the match. Tough draw in France next week, but hopefully she can get a few wins under her belt soon and continue to surprise many. Still optimism here.

Swan - Turned 20 yesterday (happy birthday), so still young, but not crazy young and no longer involved in any top 20 of her age type conversations. She has obviously had her injury issues, which may well hold her back going forward, but she has lost all 8 matches against top 200 players since August, some were tough players and injuries would have affected others, but that run isn't by accident, and for me, especially when you see all the talented younger overseas players really pushing on, far too many to mention, it's more of case of longer term, can she get to where Boulter is now, rather than can get to where Jo currently is and beyond.

G Taylor - probably the most disappointing. This time last year there was an unknown excitement and genuine talk of Fed Cup debuts and pushing towards the top 100 by the end of 2018. A year later and she's fighting to defend points just to stay inside the top 300. Like Katie S she is young and may have a good few months coming up, but for the next year at best, it'll be trying to get back towards her career high rather than trying to get to where KB is now, and with the poor year, losing a lot at the higher level, for me that unknown / excitement factor has gone and it's more of a case of hoping she can achieve the best she can.

Dunne - I always thought she was a bit behind last years young WC chasing pack, so it's not a huge surprise to me that she has lost circa 100 places off her ranking this past year. She's obviously older than the rest of that group and a year older than when she was reaching 25k SF finals, so it's more of a case now of can she get back into GS qual contention rather than can she push towards where HD, GT, KS were around the grass season, 150-170ish.

Broady - it's not good is it. Literally 6 match wins since mid May, one to somebody unranked, one to #440 and 2 others outside the top 300. She's losing at 25k and 60k quals level now and that's a far cry from almost reaching Monterrey QF last year and the low ranking is going to make it so much harder for her to get anything going.

The new system is making it harder for the likes of Eden, Tara, Alicia and SBG to progress as Michael was saying. They might pick up the odd qualifying win here and there, but that won't really give them points and they seem so far away from the top 300. Emily can't seem to win at 25k level.

Jodie and Maia have been a positive and hopefully they can push on and give us extra interest in Grand Slam qualifying in the next year or so.

In the players review mention is made of the Grand Slam latter stage run for GB women is pretty much over for the foreseeable future. It is a sobering thought that if you consider the time gap between Jo Durie's  semi final at the 1983  US Open and Jo Konta's semi-final at the 2016 Australian Open with the same time gap our next ladies semi finalist at a Grand Slam will be the 2049 US Open. Similarly if you take Virginia Wade's semi final at Wimbledon in 1978 and Jo's 39 years later, then our next ladies Wimbledon semi finalist will in 2056. A long time off.

I think we try to be encouraging but realistic Indy, I'm not sure anything else is too helpful. And we're all looking for the green shoots at the moment, so let's hope we see a few more in the next months or so lead up to the grass season. Where there are green shoots we may tend to overhype often, but you can't do that when the shoots are very few and far between.

I noticed all the way through tennis abstract using their elo surface specific forecasting have had Barty as favourite to win this week. Lo and behold she is now in the semis and still their favourite. But she clearly isn't ranked in the top few and it seemed quite a wild call, albeit right so far.

Anyone any insights on how Barty would have been favourite? How did the bookies rate her ?