Week 5 - ITF (W15) - Sharm El Sheik, Egypt - Hard

Oakland2002 · All-time great

RE: Week 5 - ITF (W15) - Sharm El Sheik, Egypt - Hard

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

In terms of odds, all of them are outsiders, but Tiff has the best chance to progress. She is 13/8, Emilie is 9/2, while poor Kasia is 9/1. If CD was feeling very optimistic and fancied a treble, it would be available at 143/1, ha.

TomTraubert · Futures level

hello!!! elg with set one off the top seed 61

k pitak 14*

Oakland2002 · All-time great

Gambling is a mugs game.

Inately we are designed to ignore statistics uncertainty when making a decision on a background of uncertainty even those with statistical training wil mimic a very conservative Bayesian pattern when considering the significance of previous events (where odds are predictable (eg at the most basic coin tossing) in terms of predicting the next even when the laws of probability predict a pure Bayesian distribution.

This is conservative psychological hard wiring is further compounded by the cashout option, the inclination being to bale even when the odds have moved massively in your favour!

Michael D · All-time great

A good opening set from Emilie but she couldn't sustain it. She was 4-4 in the 3rd set, but then got broken and Detiuc held to win. Emilie actually won one point more on the match, so a much better performance than last week, which will be the most pleasing element for her. Kasia has lost too, Tiff still to come.

R16: Emilie LINDH (GBR) UNR/313 lost to Anastasia DETIUC (CZE) [1] 489/62 (CH:414 July 18) 6-1 3-6 4-6
H2H: 0-1 - 2019 W15 Sharm El Sheikh EGY Hard 32 DETIUC 6-2 6-3
R16: Katarzyna PITAK (GBR) [WC] UNR/471 lost to Simona WALTERT (SUI) [3] 582/68 (CH:438 May 18) 18yrs (JCH:9 Jan 18) 2-6 2-6

R16: Tiffany WILLIAM (GBR) UNR/197 vs Mayar SHERIF (EGY) [WC] UNR/UNR (CH:575 Dec 13)

indiana · Tennis legend

Oakland2002 wrote:
Gambling is a mugs game.

Inately we are designed to ignore statistics uncertainty when making a decision on a background of uncertainty even those with statistical training wil mimic a very conservative Bayesian pattern when considering the significance of previous events (where odds are predictable (eg at the most basic coin tossing) in terms of predicting the next even when the laws of probability predict a pure Bayesian distribution.

This is conservative psychological hard wiring is further compounded by the cashout option, the inclination being to bale even when the odds have moved massively in your favour!

Ooo err

Anyway, c'mon Tiffany.

Coup Droit · Tennis legend

Ace Ventura wrote:
In terms of odds, all of them are outsiders, but Tiff has the best chance to progress. She is 13/8, Emilie is 9/2, while poor Kasia is 9/1. If CD was feeling very optimistic and fancied a treble, it would be available at 143/1, ha.

smile smile smile

For the sake of ethics on this board, Oakie is quite right, of course - it's a game for mugs.

However, there's many things we do that cost money that are 'useless' - a lot of shopping falls into this category - not only the clutter but do you really need that Starbucks coffee for £2.50? (It amazes me, in London, how much money is spent, daily, as a regular budget item, in cafés, bars, restaurants....)

My little betting account actually consistently makes money (a little) and gives me pleasure - BUT it is a very 'little' account and I have no problem keeping it that way. In fact, it probably only does OK precisely because it is little - I would no doubt view it differently (even subconsciously) if it were bigger sums of money. If I hit the High Street, I will most certainly spend WAY more money than I give Bet365 and on things just as unnecessary, in the scheme of things.

However, a treble on the women in Egypt sounds a little ambitious for me..... (I'll put 10p on a couple of the Frenchmen at Quimper - not Lestienne - to hope the home crowd advantage argument comes good and that'll be my 'investment' for the day.... smile )

Michael D · All-time great

Well Tiffany also lost sadly. She was up 5-2 in the first at one stage, but that was as good as it got for her.

R16: Tiffany WILLIAM (GBR) UNR/197 lost to Mayar SHERIF (EGY) [WC] UNR/UNR (CH:575 Dec 13) 6-7(3) 3-6

Emilie + have a doubles to come, our last interest here this week.

Ace Ventura · Tennis legend

Coup Droit wrote:
Ace Ventura wrote:
In terms of odds, all of them are outsiders, but Tiff has the best chance to progress. She is 13/8, Emilie is 9/2, while poor Kasia is 9/1. If CD was feeling very optimistic and fancied a treble, it would be available at 143/1, ha.

For the sake of ethics on this board, Oakie is quite right, of course - it's a game for mugs.
However, there's many things we do that cost money that are 'useless' - a lot of shopping falls into this category - not only the clutter but do you really need that Starbucks coffee for £2.50? (It amazes me, in London, how much money is spent, daily, as a regular budget item, in cafés, bars, restaurants....)
My little betting account actually consistently makes money (a little) and gives me pleasure - BUT it is a very 'little' account and I have no problem keeping it that way. In fact, it probably only does OK precisely because it is little - I would no doubt view it differently (even subconsciously) if it were bigger sums of money. If I hit the High Street, I will most certainly spend WAY more money than I give Bet365 and on things just as unnecessary, in the scheme of things.
However, a treble on the women in Egypt sounds a little ambitious for me..... (I'll put 10p on a couple of the Frenchmen at Quimper - not Lestienne - to hope the home crowd advantage argument comes good and that'll be my 'investment' for the day.... )

Yeah, I personally think a little in moderation is fine and no worse than having a couple of pints a week - both can lead to problems, but if managed / controlled, can bring enjoyment and pleasure. My 'little' is slightly more than yours (and usually reserved to football accumulators or Grand Slams) but not enough to either make me rich or fill me with massive regrets.

I still stand by that odds give a good indication of likelihood as so many factors are taken into consideration and I like to use it as a gauge if someone 'should' win or a fantastic win if they could pull off the 'upset'.

And finally, if you don't have WTA TV then Bet365 streaming is fantastic for the early rounds of WTA events. BT do a superb job here with their coverage, but if you wanted to watch someone less known on a smaller court with commentary on a more or less full screen, it certainly comes in handy.