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Post Info TOPIC: The road to the Australian Open
RedSquirrel


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RE: The road to the 2019 Australian Open
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Katie is currently live 99 on the 3 December. There are, I think, only 5 women who can overtake her, 2 of which need to win Limoges to do so. Two others need to win Taipei and Houston, so the worst Katie can be is 103, but is more likely to be ranked 100 on the cut off date:

Niculescu: Houston, needs to reach L16
Zvonareva: Limoges, needs to win tournament
Korpatsch: Limoges, needs to win tournament
Hibino: Taipei, needs to win tournament
Wickmayer: Houston, needs to win tournament


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Ace Ventura


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Korpatsch has since gone out, but Vera Z has made the Limoges SF, one of 4 Russians.

Good news for Naomi though, she has made the Houston main draw (you'd only get 6 points from coming through quals). She'll certainly have to win one match and assuming there's not a strange amount of withdrawals, I reckon she'll need 2 main draw wins to make the cut.

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Ace Ventura


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Zvonareva loses in the SF of Limoges so won't catch Katie or Heather. Think they should be OK now.

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Grachka


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Barring any ranking misunderstandings from me, it looks like Margarita Gasparyan is going to make the AO main draw too, which is a nice story after her horrible injury troubles.

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Ace Ventura


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Bar injury Gasparyan is nailed on which is good, but her scheduling is weird. She has gone from India to Limoges, retired at 0-3 to Rodina in the semi final yesterday (which is concerning in itself), but she's now been placed in the Taipei 125k draw - surely she will pull out of that?

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Ace Ventura


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Would be great if RedSquirrel could do another chart with the Limoges-Shenzhen updates as both Limoges finalists won't affect our two. Houston and Taipei this week plus a few 25ks which may have an impact.

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Ace Ventura


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Gasparyan has withdrawn from Taipei. Hopefully the retirement was just precautionary, but a strange time to retire at 0-3.

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RedSquirrel


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Here you go AV. Only Niculescu, Hibino and Gibbs can overtake Katie and Heather. Hibino needs to win Taipei and Gibbs needs to win Las Vegas and Houston, neither of which seems likely. I can't see anyone in the 25Ks that can affect their position.
Live 3/12 according to OER.

Live 3/12 pos.Live 3/12 ptsWk45Wk46Max potential ptsTo overtake KB
needs to reach
96Heather Watson637Houston796
96Kateryna Kozlova637
98Amanda Anisimova635
99Katie Boulter633
100Monica Niculescu617Houston775QF
101Fiona Ferro615
102Coco Vandeweghe614
103Sachia Vickery610
104Mandy Minella593
105Viktorija Golubic586
106Lucie Safarova584
107Svetlana Kuznetsova582
108Sara Errani578
109Anhelina Kalinina545
110Olga Danilovic536
111Vera Zvonareva534
112Mariana Duque-Marino527
113Laura Siegemund504
113Jennifer Brady504
115Arantxa Rus503
116Tamara Korpatsch495
117Marta Kostyuk493
118Nao Hibino492Taipei640WIN
119Jessica Pegula477Houston632-
120Yanina Wickmayer476
121Julia Glushko473
121Fanny Stollar473Houston632-
123Nicole Gibbs471Las VegasHouston666WIN & WIN


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Ace Ventura


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Thanks RS, much clearer now.

Hibino has had some poor results in recent weeks so it would be a bit of a surprise if she went from losing to the likes of Cepelova (who while certainly isn't as bad as the ranking at time, was 243 when they met), Lu and Grammatikopoulou to winning this. Not the strongest field here, but she'd probably have to beat the likes of Kumkhum, Jorovic and Zheng to win it. Shame Gasparyan pulled out as mentioned (but expected), as she would have been a potential SF opponent.

Monica will be the 2nd seed in Houston, so will just have to beat 2 non seeded players to reach the quarters and there doesn't seem too many dangerous non seeds about - Lepchenko, Lao, Osuigwe (if she comes through her FQR) or perhaps Broady could do herself and Katie a favour if she draws her.

Hopefully Bencic can win tonight as expected and that would rule Gibbs out straightaway.

I guess the main issue will be how many PRs are in the equation. 104 would usually be the cutoff, but could be nearer 100 depending on those. Heather should be absolutely fine.

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Ace Ventura


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Bencic did beat Gibbs, so the lowest Katie be ranked by the cut off is 101.

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Grachka


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Ace Ventura wrote:

Gasparyan has withdrawn from Taipei. Hopefully the retirement was just precautionary, but a strange time to retire at 0-3.

 

Seems (from an eyewitness on Twitter) that it could be a knee injury which prompted the retirement. Which, given she's had three knee surgeries, doesn't bode well.



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RedSquirrel


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Grachka wrote:

Ace Ventura wrote:

Gasparyan has withdrawn from Taipei. Hopefully the retirement was just precautionary, but a strange time to retire at 0-3.

 

Seems (from an eyewitness on Twitter) that it could be a knee injury which prompted the retirement. Which, given she's had three knee surgeries, doesn't bode well.



Yes, reason given for withdrawal on Taipei draw sheet is left knee injury.

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RedSquirrel


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As noted on the Houston thread, Niculescu has withdrawn with a right foot injury.

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Ace Ventura


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I see Aga Radwanska has just announced her retirement. Shame for her as it seems more body / injury related than a planned get out but she's obviously been struggling for a while, hence her ranking of 75. Just 29 years old.

I guess that cements Katie's AO place further, may also help Katy and Naomi get into quals via the back door as I think a few will also withdraw due to not being able to afford to get there.

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RedSquirrel


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I see Katy is entered for India 25K in a couple of weeks. She'll need to go deep if it is to get her to AO quals, but presumably if she does play the 25K she's there for the following week as well which will be the last chance other than Dubai to get points to get her into AO quals. .

-- Edited by RedSquirrel on Thursday 15th of November 2018 08:20:43 AM

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