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Post Info TOPIC: The road to the Australian Open
Ace Ventura


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RE: The road to the 2019 Australian Open
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indiana wrote:
Ace Ventura wrote:

Well, Katie B is risking her AO direct entry spot. Ends her season.

But then how much do you compromise your preferred close season, maybe one where Katie wants to put in quite a bit of work, her previous illness issue having held back the amount of gym work she could do.

If it would be compromising her preferred close season I reckon it's a legitimate risk and one that she will very probably get away with.

Yeah, she'll know a lot more than me about her current health (retiring in Suzhou) and her ideal close season prep, and you'd assume she'd know the risks of being overtaken in the race for direct entry and could be fine with it, but it would just be a shame if she did miss out and end up being one of the highest seeds, like in New York, but crash out early and miss out on that circa $40k pay day, especially if one Limoges 125k win turned out to be enough.

I thought she may have been seeded for that, but turns out she'd be around 11th so could have drawn e.g. Hsieh like in Miami and wasted time and effort for minimal reward, but on the flip side, she could have drawn a WC, won one match and then retired this time next week and dine enough.

I've had a quick look at the rankings. Vickery has ended her season today, so she will drop below Katie and Golubic is defending about 100 odd points and someone else above her has work to do, but with no obvious injury cases that I can think of and a fair few behind her with a number of events to play, like Hev for example, I think it'll be touch and go. But she'll probably have weighed all this anyway and be happy either way.

 

Holman Cup for her next then.



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Ace Ventura


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Hopman

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indiana


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I guess though as you say MD guaranteed is a big payday, and having made the top 100 it would be a real pity not to go on to make her first Slam MD purely on ranking. The temptation must have been there, if fit, to try for extra insurance.

Just hope all's well in the end.

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RedSquirrel


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She should be okay. She is live WR94 on the 3 December on OER, 55 points ahead of WR105. Most of those that are immediately behind her are either not playing or in Limoges so they can't all score big pts. But even in the unlikely event all those with events still to play down to 110 overtake her that would only put her at 104. Assuming the cut off is at least 104 after SRs and withdrawals someone more than 140 points behind her is likely to need to overtake her and I don't see that happening.


live
3/12
ranking
position		live
3/12
points		Pts
behind
KB		Week 44Week 45Week 46
94Katie Boulter6330
95Heather Watson628-580K LVHouston
95Anna Blinkova628-5Limoges
97Fiona Ferro615-18Limoges
98Coco Vandeweghe614-19
99Sachia Vickery610-23
100Monica Niculescu603-30LimogesHouston
101Kateryna Kozlova591-4260K Toronto
102Viktorija Golubic586-47
103Lucie Safarova584-49
104Svetlana Kuznetsova582-51
105Sara Errani578-55
106Luksika Kumkhum566-67Mumbai100K ShenzhenTaipei
107Margarita Gasparyan553-80MumbaiLimogesTaipei
108Anhelina Kalinina545-8860K LizhouLimoges
109Mandy Minella544-8925K PentangeLimoges
110Olga Danilovic536-97MumbaiLimoges
111Mariana Duque-Marino527-106
112Laura Siegemund504-129
112Jennifer Brady504-129
114Marta Kostyuk493-140
115Nao Hibino491-142Mumbai100K ShenzhenTaipei
116Tamara Korpatsch486-14725K PentangeLimoges


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Ace Ventura


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Looks almost over for Katy Dunne. She's going to need a very strong Shenzhen 100k next week.

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Ace Ventura


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RedSquirrel wrote:

She should be okay. She is live WR94 on the 3 December on OER, 55 points ahead of WR105. Most of those that are immediately behind her are either not playing or in Limoges so they can't all score big pts. But even in the unlikely event all those with events still to play down to 110 overtake her that would only put her at 104. Assuming the cut off is at least 104 after SRs and withdrawals someone more than 140 points behind her is likely to need to overtake her and I don't see that happening.


live
3/12
ranking
position		 live
3/12
points		Pts
behind
KB		Week 44Week 45Week 46
94Katie Boulter6330   
95Heather Watson628-5 80K LVHouston
95Anna Blinkova628-5 Limoges 
97Fiona Ferro615-18 Limoges 
98Coco Vandeweghe614-19   
99Sachia Vickery610-23   
100Monica Niculescu603-30 LimogesHouston
101Kateryna Kozlova591-4260K Toronto  
102Viktorija Golubic586-47   
103Lucie Safarova584-49   
104Svetlana Kuznetsova582-51   
105Sara Errani578-55   
106Luksika Kumkhum566-67Mumbai100K ShenzhenTaipei
107Margarita Gasparyan553-80MumbaiLimogesTaipei
108Anhelina Kalinina545-8860K LizhouLimoges 
109Mandy Minella544-8925K PentangeLimoges 
110Olga Danilovic536-97MumbaiLimoges 
111Mariana Duque-Marino527-106   
112Laura Siegemund504-129   
112Jennifer Brady504-129   
114Marta Kostyuk493-140   
115Nao Hibino491-142Mumbai100K ShenzhenTaipei
116Tamara Korpatsch486-14725K PentangeLimoges 

 It does look more positive when you put it like that and list the events the rivals are due to play. The SEs could be crucial, I'm not sure how many there'd be. If the cut off was 104, then I would be confident, if it was nearer 100 then it'll be a bit more tense.



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seagull


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There are no SE's....unless you mean PR's?!

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Ace Ventura


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Yes, I did mean PRs. There were 4 or 5 at the US Open.

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flamingowings


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A few of those on RS's list have been injured this year (at least 6 to my knowledge). Also, is Errani still banned at the time of the MD qualification date?

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RedSquirrel


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Ace Ventura wrote:

Looks almost over for Katy Dunne. She's going to need a very strong Shenzhen 100k next week.



Katy has pulled out of Shenzhen.

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Jaggy1876


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RedSquirrel wrote:
Ace Ventura wrote:

Looks almost over for Katy Dunne. She's going to need a very strong Shenzhen 100k next week.


 


Katy has pulled out of Shenzhen.

 Early exit in Canberra maybe prompted that, week to hang around maybe too much. I wonder if she ll go home and ask for a Shrewsbury WC. Might get some points there instead.



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TomTraubert


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Jaggy1876 wrote:
RedSquirrel wrote:
Ace Ventura wrote:
Looks almost over for Katy Dunne. She's going to need a very strong Shenzhen 100k next week.

 Katy has pulled out of Shenzhen.

 Early exit in Canberra maybe prompted that, week to hang around maybe too much. I wonder if she ll go home and ask for a Shrewsbury WC. Might get some points there instead.

long way to go and recover would play tuesday/wednesday
would she realy get the best out of herself on those circumstances? even if she thinking that way it might be a hiding to nothing?



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the addict


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If she wants a wildcard, she'd better have already applied - ITF rulebook...

WILD CARDS
Players accepted directly into the Main Draw or Qualifying at the discretion
of the sanctioning National Association. Wild Cards may be seeded and for
singles must be named by the Wednesday before the tournament starts, ....

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TomTraubert


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*wrong aussie thread*



-- Edited by TomTraubert on Friday 2nd of November 2018 05:30:15 AM

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Ace Ventura


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With just 4 wins in her last 15 matches stretching back to early August and being a seed in more than half of those, Katy's AO qualifying hopes unfortunately look all but over - would take a lot of withdrawals for her to sneak in and you're less likely to get that in Australia than you would at the FO or Wimbledon.

Naomi will need at least 2 wins, probably 3, maybe even 4 from her last 2 events to keep her hopes alive.

Watson could really do with 1 win from her next 2 events to strengthen her grip on her direct entry, while Katie B will play the waiting game and hope she has done enough.

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