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Ace Ventura


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The road to the Australian Open
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THIS OPENING POST IS FOR THE 2019 EVENT - SEE PAGE 4 (ONWARDS) FOR THE 2020 VERSION

 

Australian Open quallies could look considerably different to that of the US Open a couple of months ago, some for positive reasons, others less so. We had 7 representatives in the New York qualifiers, but it could be as little as 3 in Melbourne. There will be 16 qualifiers this year (instead of 12) + the usual 8 WCs and when you factor in any PR cases, 100 should be about the main draw cut:

 

Konta - ranked around 39 and ended her season fairly positive with the Moscow semi final. Won't be seeded but has the game to be one of the most dangerous floaters in the draw.

Boulter - I think she still has Limoges 125k to play, but baring extremely unusual circumstances, she should make her first slam main draw appearance outside of a Wimbledon WC.

Watson - Currently ranked #98 which will be touch and go. Probably needs a few more wins to secure her place - I thought she'd have played Tyler this coming week if she is in Vegas the week after, but it looks like it is just Vegas.

Dart - Will be ranked circa #153 when the Oslo points are added. Season has ended - she can fully rest and then prepare for Australia.

G Taylor - Will also be as safe as houses. Has 55 points coming off before Australia, but even that would see her around #189 and she has Canberra 60k and Shrewsbury 25k where she will be a high seed in both to preserve or possibly better her current ranking.

Swan - Has a net of 68 points to come off by the end of 2018 which would see her fall to around #212 which should still be enough to sneak in. She has a Chinese 60k and 100k event coming up to try and replace some of these dropping points, but should be fine for Melbourne quallies.

Dunne - Not so positive. I'd say currently at #233 she would be borderline sneaking in, possibly just outside the cut. She has 64 points coming off, 13 which can be added to her total, so a net of 51 coming off which would drop her to around #268 - she's going to need around 60 points from Canberra 60k and Shenzhen 100k to have any chance.

Broady - Probably the least likely to make it. She has 86 of her 286 points to come off before the end of the year, with nothing to add. That would take her to 200 points and #268, the same as Katy. She has Toronto 60k coming up as well as Vegas 80k the week after, but again, will need around 60 points at least to stand any chance.

 

After Limoges 125k on Nov 5th, there are 2 125k events the same week the week after - Houston and Taipei, as well as a Dubai 100k+H event in mid December.

What are we expecting? 3 in the main draw and 3 in quals, better / worse?



-- Edited by Ace Ventura on Monday 25th of November 2019 02:51:28 PM

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Jaggy1876


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From reading the above Broady and Dunne almost certainly wont make it, the rest as is.

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Ace Ventura


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Jaggy1876 wrote:

From reading the above Broady and Dunne almost certainly wont make it, the rest as is.

Yeah, I think Konta, Boulter main draw. Gabi, Katie S and Harriet in quals. Naomi and Katy miss out, but the big ? is Hev and whether she has done enough to make main draw. You know there will be loads of players ranked 95-120 frantically scrapping around for points at some of the remaining 60, 80, 100, 125k events - hopefully she'll get in.



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indiana


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Yes, interesting positives and negatives.

Katie B and Heather will be very close once Katie's Obidos 25K RU 30 points come off on 05/11 to be replaced by 9 points.

Katie: 633 points ( 16th counter 9 )

Heather 628 ( 16th counter 1 )

If they both added the same gross win points it would be Heather then ahead.

But I reckon both will probably already be OK anyway. With her 628 points Heather is currently WR 98 and will apparently be WR 99 in tomorrow's rankings.

But you can sometimes move up or down quite a few places while stuck on the same points so it would be good to add some more points.



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Ace Ventura


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indiana wrote:

Yes, interesting positives and negatives.

Katie B and Heather will be very close once Katie's Obidos RU 30 points come off on 05/11 to be replaced by 9.

Katie: 633 points ( 16th counter 9 )

Heather 628 ( 16th counter 1 )

If they both added the same gross win points it would be Heather then ahead.

But I reckon both will probably already be OK anyway. With her 628 points Heather is currently WR 98 and will apparently be WR 99 in tomorrow's rankings.

But you can sometimes move up or down quite a few places while stuck on the same points so it would be good to add some more points.

Completely forgot about Katie B's Portugal points coming off. She may be fine already as you say, but she could do with getting a win in Limoges if she does indeed still play it.

Just had a look at the Dubai 100k event last year and it was pretty strong for a mid Dec event - you had 5 top 100 seeds playing.



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the addict


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What's the actual cut-off date for the AO - is it 26 November or 3rd December (six weeks before I believe ?)
Not many weeks to add points, anyway.

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Ace Ventura


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the addict wrote:

What's the actual cut-off date for the AO - is it 26 November or 3rd December (six weeks before I believe ?)
Not many weeks to add points, anyway.

 Think I read 26th Nov, which would then take Dubai out of the equation, for main draw at least, would still be relevant for quallies.



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indiana


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the addict wrote:

What's the actual cut-off date for the AO - is it 26 November or 3rd December (six weeks before I believe ?)
Not many weeks to add points, anyway.

3rd December.

Edit: Oh, replies crossed. At least I was assuming it was the normal 6 weeks before the first Monday of the MD (14/01/19).



-- Edited by indiana on Sunday 28th of October 2018 09:45:13 PM

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the addict


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Ah, OK, thanks.
I was in the middle of writing a comment about Naomi and Katie D - then I realised that Ace had already said exactly the same ! Both in danger of missing out.



-- Edited by the addict on Sunday 28th of October 2018 09:44:00 PM

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flamingowings


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Thanks for this summary. I think Heather will be in the MD, along with KB and Jo. Broady and Dunne won't make it. Broady's lack of form at any point during 2018 suggests that, and Dunne...well, she's not hit the higher heights those GB players above her have and might never do but good on her for being around the top 200 mark which is more than I could ever be, if what I do was ever ranked or rated even within my workplace!

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RedSquirrel


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Katie B and Hev have probably done enough for the MD. Heather also has Houston 125K to come as well as Vegas so enough opportunity to pick up points. It's so close between Heather and Katie that Heather could end the season as GB#2 if she does well in both events.

Harriet and Gabi are safe for qualifying. Katie S should be okay with a 60K, 100K and Chinese Taipei 125K on her schedule there is plenty of opportunity to pick up points.

Naomi has this week's 60K and then Vegas, and possibly(?) Houston qualifying but on her recent form it's difficult to see her picking up the points she needs.

Katy has a 60K, 100K and she's an alt for the Chinese Taipei 125k main draw (might be in qualifying?) but I think the points she needs is probably just beyond her grasp.

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indiana


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The qualifying list date is normally 4 weeks before the MD start, which would make that list based on the 17th December rankings.

Though they at least have no further points to come off in these additional 2 weeks, that's still problematic for Katy D and Naomi. All the best to them though.



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ROSAMUND


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If it should happen that Katie Boulter or Heather Watson's ranking should drop so that they would be forced to qualify because of  an increase in numbers size in  the  qualifying draw I hope we don't have Anne Keothavong complaining about this. Back in January she was dismayed that Laura Robson's ranking was too low for a 96  qualifying draw. The men was a 128 draw and Anne complained about the imbalance. I've got a vague feeling that Heather Watson also made some comments as well. Just hope nobody will be unhappy with the new arrangements if it goes against them..



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Ace Ventura


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Well, Katie B is risking her AO direct entry spot. Ends her season.

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indiana


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Ace Ventura wrote:

Well, Katie B is risking her AO direct entry spot. Ends her season.

But then how much do you compromise your preferred close season, maybe one where Katie wants to put in quite a bit of work, her previous illness issue having held back the amount of gym work she could do.

If it would be compromising her preferred close season I reckon it's a legitimate risk and one that she will very probably get away with.



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